Campaign Diaries

Eight months after he was crushed by 22% in New Mexico’s open Senate race, Steve Pearce has settled on his next move. He had already declared that he would either seek to reclaim his old House seat or run for Governor; today, he announced he would take the former route, setting up one of the most competitive contests of the cycle: freshman Democrat Harry Teague will have his hands full against Pearce.

The cap-and-trade rationale

In announcing his decision, Pearce insisted that he was looking at the gubernatorial race as recently as two weeks ago but that he was swayed by Teague’s in favor of cap-and-trade.

The cap-and-trade vote is the thing that put my decision over the hump… I was absolutely stunned over his vote. There are 23,000 statewide jobs in the oil and gas industry – and if this bill is passed, this will kill many of those jobs… I don’t think I’d be making the announcement if he voted against the energy bill.

The GOP is confident that cap-and-trade will doom Democrats in 2010 (Teague is one of 14 Democrats already targeted by radio ads) and the NRCC is trying to use this vote to convince potential GOP candidates that they’ll have a good shot if they run. Of course, this contention is mostly for show: There is no evidence that conservatives are positioned to win the global warming debate, nor that cap-and-trade will be a big issue come 2010. As such, it’s hard to shake the feeling that there is something disingenuous in Pearce’s statement.

For months now, he had shown no hint as to which race he was leaning towards and I’m am not sure I believe that he would have jumped in the gubernatorial race had it not been for Waxman-Markey. But saying so could be a tactic to highlight an issue he thinks will hurt Teague - not to mention that it could help the NRCC convince other Republicans that Democrats have so shot themselves in the foot that all a challenger needs to do is show up. We shall see whether this recruitment tactic works.

Expect a competitive House race

In a state that is rapidly drifting leftward, NM-02 has become the new battleground. While George W. Bush prevailed 58% to 41% in 2004, Barack Obama only fell to John McCain 50% to 49%. The same day, Teague easily prevailed in the open House race, 56% to 44%; while that contest was long expected to favor the GOP, Republican nominee Ed Tinsley proved to be a poor candidate who did not put much of an effort in the campaign’s closing weeks.

Teague will now get to run as an incumbent, which that ensures that the race starts no worse for Democrats than a toss-up. But he is a freshman congressman, the district remains red-leaning and the environment shall not be as favorable next year. In short: He is vulnerable.

But can Pearce expect to be taken that seriously by the GOP establishment when he led them to a stunningly large defeat last year? This humiliating a defeat is a blow to any politician’s credibility - just ask Colorado’s Bob Beauprez. After all, Pearce even lost NM-02 - a decisive blow to his electability claims. He performed better than Tinsley, but not as well as McCain: according to my calculations, he lost 52% to 48% in what was then still his district.

The bottom line is that in a truly terrible year for New Mexico Republicans, NM-02 still gave a narrow victory to McCain and 48% to Pearce. As such, the former congressman has a strong base from which to reclaim his old seat - especially if there is a slight breeze pushing Republicans nationally - and he is probably as formidable a challenger as the GOP could have fielded.

He easily won his three House races: He prevailed 56% to 44% in 2002 before receiving 60% in his two re-election bids in 2004 and in 2006. Not only should he be a strong fundraiser thanks to the supporter lists he developed during his Senate bid, but his prominent profile will ensure that he receives free publicity and he will not need to spend money introducing himself to voters. Finally, Pearce has never lost against Teague, removing a major liability former congressmen face when they seek to reclaim their old seat.

Republicans still looking for a gubernatorial candidate

Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish has the inside track to win the Democratic nomination, and it remains to be seen whether Republicans will be able to field a credible candidate against her. The party’s only statewide official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has ruled out a gubernatorial bid; now, it’s Steve Pearce’s turn to head out of the race.

That leaves former Rep. Heather Wilson as the GOP’s only prominent politician left. While she is flirting with a run, Republicans would be hard-pressed to find another credible candidate if she were to pass: state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and former state GOP chair Allen Weh are mentioned, but they’ll be hard pressed to put up a fight in this increasingly blue state. Even Wilson might not be enough for the GOP to ensure a competitive race: A recent DGA-sponsored poll has her trailing Denish by 22%. Pearce trailed by the same margin.