Campaign Diaries

Once again, the political world is buzzing about Sarah Palin. 10 months after John McCain’s ushered her on the national stage, the ambitious Alaska Governor abruptly exited the one elected office she’s ever held over a jurisdiction of more than 6,000 inhabitants.

As was the case for much of the 2008 election, Palin remains an enigma. Her persona, her politics and her rhetoric could hardly be more predictable; but how can we not be continuously stunned by her ability to gather huge and adoring crowds, by her willingness to make unconventional decisions, by the sincerity of her disregard for the value of truth and by her apparent conviction that making Bush look like a policy wonk is an asset?

Palin’s latest move is jaw-dropping not only because no one saw it coming but because she offered no clear explanation for resigning. She gave the impression that she simply woke up one morning and decided she had had enough, which raises obvious questions about her reliability and about how seriously she was taking her job.

I have been trying to think of any other politician who similarly walked away from an office for no clearly stated reason. The only person I can think of who comes remotely close is former Senator Trent Lott, who outrageously quit his Senate position a year before his term was up in order to take a lobbying job just before a new ethics law restricting the options of former legislators was to come into effect. [Correction: A commenter rightly corrects me and points out that Lott resigned a year into his term - which  in my opinion only makes it worse.] Given that Palin’s resignation might also have been motivated by the quest of financial profit, pointing to Lott’s precedent will not help her look any less bizarre.

Of course, the Governor didn’t even explain her decision as much as Lott had. Her decision looks so irrational that it is beyond defense, beyond justification. Sure, government would be better if politicians were more willing to resign, but that doesn’t make it okay to abandon your responsibilities without any change in circumstances.

Palin looks to be just as confused than we are. Her rambling statement made Mark Sanford’s press conference look like model of coherence. She mentioned her family and the financial costs of responding to ethical inquiries. She explained that she did not want to be one of those lame-duck governors who stays in office despite announcing a retirement, which is apparently a symptom of conventional thinking (if every term-limited governor resigned a few months into a second term, imagine how much chaos there would be) but insisted that she wants to keep fighting for her causes.

(I do hope that Palin’s defenders will stop referring to her desire to be with her family, however. After the 2008 campaign in which her entourage expressed outrage that anyone would question that a woman can occupy public office while having young children, it would be quite a setback for future female candidates if Palin used an inability to balance these commitments as an excuse for quitting the governorship.)

Thus, my initial take was probably flawed because I started off assuming that the Governor had some plan. Most of my analysis concerned her resignation’s consequences on an eventual presidential bid but I am now willing to believe that no such bid is in the works. In fact, I don’t think anything is in the works. Palin decided that she was fed up with the governorship, posited that she’ll have an easier time doing the things she loves away from Juneau and she walked away.

As such, it is useless to try and read the Palin tea leaves: It’s unlikely the Governor has made any final decision about anything - let alone about 2012. Andrea Mitchell has been reporting that Palin is through with politics and that “she has told some of her biggest backers in the national Republican party that they are free to chose other candidates for 2012;” other journalists are not drawing similar conclusions. In short, I find it just as likely that we’ll soon see Palin in Iowa than that this press conference was her last major political appearance!

On the other hand, it’s difficult to imagine this woman, who looked so eager not only to gain further power but also to take on the liberal forces and the cultural elites that she thinks are ruining the country, suddenly sitting on the sidelines. She could find a compromise path between outright retirement and elected politics, one that would allow her to draw on the devotion of the conservative base without having to put up with “frivolous” ethical charges like those her rival dare bring up.

She has many other options in front of her. She could reinvent herself as a perpetual Republican star, a permanent ex-politician like Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich; in this regard, her status as a former vice-presidential nominee and her popularity among the party’s base would outweigh her meager record. She could also become a media professional - take a job at Fox News, follow Rush Limbaugh or Joe Scarborough’s footsteps - or on the commentary circuit, like Ann Coulter.

I expect it to take years for Palin to decide whether she will pursue a presidential bid, whether she wants to distance herself from the public stage and whether she wants to try out another path. If she chooses the former option, she seriously damaged her viability after yesterday’s development and I can’t imagine how she’ll overcome the stain of her resignation. But she keeps enough of a following that she could make other options work out far better.

Palin’s decision matters in Alaska, too

While most of my analysis has been devoted to the national consequences of Palin’s move, it obviously shakes up Alaska. Just a year ago, before she was tapped as McCain’s running mate, the Governor looked to be taking a firm hold of her state’s GOP against her inner-party rivals. Now, her departure will elevate LG Sean Parnell as Governor and make the 2010 cycle that much more interesting.

Two politician who’s likely delighted by Palin’s decision are Parnell and Rep. Don Young, the ethically embattled congressman who barely survived a primary challenge by Parnell last year; a rematch might have been in the work in 2010, but Young can now breath easier since Parnell will run for re-election next year. As for Parnell, he’ll obviously have an easier time running for Governor: Had Palin retired, this staunch conservative would have faced a potentially tricky open gubernatorial race but he will now have the upper-hand in what should still be a contested primary.

As for Democrats, they will no doubt have a harder time contesting the seat than if it had been an open race, but it’s not like they’re giving up that much: state Sen Hollis French, former Commissioner of Administration Bob Poe and Ethan Berkowitz could all make credible candidates, but the past three cycles (Murkowski against Knowles, Palin versus Knowles, Stevens versus Begich, Young versus Berkowitz) demonstrated that Alaska is one of the country’s most reliably Republican states.