For weeks now, pressure was mounting on Carolyn Maloney and the narrative of a lonely (and thus weak) warrior was taking hold. Prominent Democrats voiced displeasure that she is considering challenging Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a top party consultant close to Chuck Schumer backed away from working for her, a group of 60 activists penned a letter urging her not to run and The New York Times published an article on her increasing isolation.
Yet, today brought news that shook up this emerging conventional wisdom: Bill Clinton would headline a fundraiser for Maloney on July 20st.
It quickly became clear that this is not an endorsement: The event was agreed to months ago as part of Clinton’s tour thanking those who supported his wife’s presidential bid, and it was intended to raise funds for Maloney’s re-election campaign. But it is disingenuous to portray this as a non-story. Clinton’s insistence that he is endorsing no one in the Senate race is itself newsworthy: Gillibrand was long portrayed as close to the former first couple, so it’s a surprise that Clinton isn’t joining the chorus of Democrats who are signaling their dissatisfaction at Maloney.
Not only is he not trying to push her out, but he is going ahead in helping her raise funds everyone knows will be used in a Senate run. He might have committed to this event, but he could easily argue that circumstances changed since Maloney is no longer running for the same position: yesterday’s Daily News quoted a top Maloney aide saying that “she’s in it.” Even if Clinton is just honoring an old commitment, the fact of the matter is that he is staying by Maloney’s side at a time former supporters are openly criticizing her.
News of this fundraiser could not come at a better time for Maloney. Aside from the fact that she would love to have the initial wave of post-announcement mention that Clinton is about to headline her fundraiser, the mere announcement has already changed the complexion of stories that are being written about Gillibrand’s challenger. It is now more difficult to argue that Maloney is facing so much pressure she will back off from pulling the trigger, and it is no longer possible to write that the Democratic establishment is coming together in an effort to isolate Maloney, as The New York Times did yesterday.
Also, Marist released its second poll matching-up the Democrats. In May, Gillibrand was ahead by 36% to 31%; now, Maloney is up 38% to 37%. That contradicts the argument that the Senator will inevitably gain ground as she introduces herself to voters: she lost ground even though she increased her name recognition. On the other hand, she did improve her general election position: She now leads 46% to 42% against Pataki and 48% to 32% against King. One interesting internal: Gillibrand’s approval rating among Democrats is only 4% superior to her rating among Republicans; that usually indicates primary vulnerability.
Meanwhile, chaos reigns in Albany
For the past 9 day, Governor David Paterson has daily called a special legislative session, forcing state Senators to stay in Albany during recess, but neither party is showing any willingness to compromise. Every day, both sides are entering the chamber separately. They are gaveling in, gaveling out in a matter of minutes, meaninglessly honoring their constitutional obligation to hold a special session if the Governor convenes one.
As a result, vast amounts of legislation that should have been considered since the June 8th has been sidelined. Most dramatic is that the legislature did not extend mayoral control over New York City schools; as the 2002 law expired this week, control suddenly reverted to a defunct Board of Education that had to be resurrected out of thin air. (Bloomberg managed to keep effective control by getting borough presidents to appoint board members sympathetic to his education platform.)
More bizarre was Tuesday’s cup of coffee incident: While the 31 Democrats were in their session, Republican state Senator Frank Padavan walked through the chamber to go get himself a drink (coffee, we thought at first; V8, he later). While he was walking through, he made eye contact with the clerk who was reading out names. He was thus noted to be present, a quorum was established and incredulous Democrats immediately started passing legislation. While Republicans soon expressed outrage and Paterson indicated that he will not sign those bills, Senate Democrats distributed a legal memo justifying themselves that is well worth a read.
But the most extraordinary subplot is Paterson’s travel restriction! Since New York has no Lieutenant Governor, the Senate President is first in the order of succession; that means that he gets to be Acting Governor if Paterson travels outside of New York. That’s a problem: Ever since the June 8th coup, Pedro Espada looks to have that title and some people are worried that he could go on a pardoning spree if he got to be Acting Governor! Also, Senate Democrats are insisting that Malcolm Smith remains the head of the Senate, which means that there could be utter chaos if Paterson were to step out of the state.
As such, Paterson has canceled any out-of-state events he was supposed to attend since June 8th (think about the absurdity of that situation), and there is now talk of whether he should attend July 4th ceremonies to be held on the Statue of Liberty because the ferry trip he’d take would go through New Jersey.
The Bill Clinton fundraiser for Maloney is an overdue IOU, NOT an endorsement. He has made that clear and, moreover, said that he thinks Gillibrand is doing a fine job in the US Senate. The event fulfills a promise Hillary Clinton made to NY Congressional members who campaigned for her last year. As for the polls, (fairly meaningless a year-and-a-half out from a primary), many analysts believe voters are confusing Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy, widowed by the Long Island Railroad shooter and now serving her 6th term in Congress. She earlier threatened a primary, herself, but is now working well with Gillibrand on gun-control legislation. Those who read tea-leaves sometimes miss the sugar cube in the bottom of the cup!
Penny,
This is not an endorsement, yes. I said that in my write-up. I also did say that it was a thank you tour for his wife’s supporters. But it’s disingenuous to suggest that this is all there is to it given how hard Democrats like Schumer are working to isolate Maloney, for instance ensuring that party consultants don’t work for her. The mere fact that Clinton isn’t anti-Maloney is newsworthy and it will help the congresswoman halt the wave of stories about how lonely she is.
The fact of the matter is that it’s clear that these funds will go to a Senate race, and Clinton could very well have used that to break his engagement. After all, he is not going anywhere near Joe Sestak (like the rest of the party establishment), even though Sestak also campaigned for his wife last year.
As for the polls. (1) Polls that are this early are not “meaningless,” they just have to be read very differently than those conducted in the last month. I’m only using the 38-37 match-up to draw two conclusions: The match-up is competitive and the increase in Gillibrand’s name recognition is for now not coinciding with an improvement in her numbers. After all, that belief in Gillibrand’s natural growth underlies your own comment. (2) I don’t buy the argument that people are confusing the Carolyns, nor have I ever heard that before; neither has enough name recognition to make that a factor. (3) Yes, McCarthy has dialed down the volume of her attacks and she had a constructive sit-down with Gillibrand, but she is still expected to endorse Maloney if she jumps in.
Maloney risks being remembered as a bitter spoiler who campaigned shamelessly for the vacant Senate post and when she was passed over, turned her wrath and vitriol on a young, progressive effective woman.
That Maloney would sacrifice her House seniority and committee assignments is both bizarre and sad. Perhaps common sense will prevail and she will spare New Yorkers a nasty, costly and divisive primary which can only bring joy to the hearts of the Republicans.
“Clinton’s insistence that he is endorsing no one in the Senate race is itself newsworthy.”
No it’s not. You are reading way too much into all of this. The Clintons have a long history with Gillibrand, but in Hillary’s current position, she cannot campaign. Bill is not going to insert himself into the race in a way that will distract her work, and if he made a big statement and withdrew, he would do just that. You’re making all kinds of assumptions that are only that assumptions. He has done fundraisers for all her supporters–this is an IOU–that’s it. Maloney, of course, is spinning it to her advantage–and so are you.
Let’s not forget, Clinton had a fundraiser with Gillibrand, too.
“Even if Clinton is just honoring an old commitment, the fact of the matter is that he is staying by Maloney’s side at a time former supporters are openly criticizing her.”
Bill Clinton’s appearance for Maloney is ill-timed. But to imply, as you do, that this is a “non-endorsement-endorsement” is just plain wrong. He did the same for Kirsten Gillibrand, after she’d been appointed to the Senate.
Did you wonder why Maloney put off her Senatorial primary announcement? (She’d signaled earlier she’d announce July 4th.)
Did Clinton want this as a condition of his appearance? It’s a nice piece of maneuvering by Maloney, but it could backfire if she continues to suggest that Clinton’s being there means more than it does. She seems to be pushing him hard into her corner; he can’t appreciate that.
fran and noran,
I am not suggesting at all that this is a “non-endorsement endorsement” but here are other ways in which this can be newsworthy. The one fact we know: Clinton is headlining a fundraiser at a time other Democrats are openly expressing displeasure. That’s not an endorsement, but it does much harder for a narrative of an isolated and lonely Maloney to take hold and should ease the pressure that recent press stories have put on her. And none of this requires any assumption into Clinton’s motivations.
NYer, as long as there is no evidence that Republicans will have a credible candidate in this race, it’s hard to see why this primary would bring joy to their hearts.
I would give Gillibrand a 1/10th chance of winning the primary, but anyway…
Espada is not next in line to the Governor’s mansion: there has been an agreement the Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver is temporarily Lieutenant Governor, but that is pending a legal challenge. Thus Espada’s likely self-pardon would end up in court for three years, but I don’t believe that he will be able to get away with that.