Campaign Diaries

Crushed in his 2008 re-election bid, former Senator John Sununu will not run for New Hampshire’s open seat in 2010. Earlier today, he told The Associated Press that he was concentrating on new activities he had picked up over the past few months, including his membership on a panel overseeing the financial bailout.

While Democrats look to have settled on Rep. Paul Hodes as their nominee, it has never looked clear who might represent the GOP. Sununu’s withdrawal goes a long way towards clearing up the state of play. By far the most Republican to consider the race, the former Senator had the right of first refusal.

That does not mean that his decision is a blow to the GOP, however; it’s rather a mixed blessing, full of both danger and potential. The short version: Sununu would have guaranteed his party 40% of the vote, but he might have had trouble reaching 50%. His withdrawal allows Republicans to dream of a higher ceiling but it also threatens to send them falling through the floor, unable to mount a credible defense for Judd Gregg’s seat.

On the one hand, then, Sununu would have been a deeply flawed contender: New Hampshire voters know him well and a majority has decided that they don’t want him. He was never in a position to win last year’s race as an incumbent, which raises obvious questions as to his electability, and he would have forced Republicans to revisit the dreadful 2008 cycle.

As such, Sununu’s exit could allow Republicans to nominate a fresher politician, unencumbered by Bush’s legacy. Yes, that means someone with lower initial support, but also someone whose reputation has not yet hardened and who would thus have more room to grow. All eyes now turn towards Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and towards former Rep. Charlie Bass, albeit to a lesser extent.

On the other hand, a Sununu candidacy would have guaranteed the NRSC a prominent candidate who would be sure to fundraise well and keep the party in the running. Now, the GOP is still left with no candidate and the possibility remains that they won’t be able to field a credible contender against Hodes. Ayotte was considered unlikely to run until a few months ago and Bass is also considering seeking his old House seat, which has now been left open by Hodes. If both of them pass, the NRSC could be forced to deal with third-tier candidates like businessman Fred Tausch and the party’s 1996 gubernatorial nominee, Ovide Lamontagne.

Even if Ayotte or Bass jump in, nothing guarantees that they would make the race worth following. Bass was last seen losing his re-election race in 2006, and he will also have to find a way to distance himself from his role in the Bush years: New Hampshire voters might be open to Republicans, but they clearly want a new start for the GOP. Ayotte would make a more intriguing contender, but she has never held elected office - nor ran any campaign. (Attorney Generals are appointed by the Governor.) How would she fare on the trail? would she have the funds to introduce herself early enough to avoid Democrats doing so first? how would she connect to voters?