Comments on: In new polls, GOP leads 3 out of 4 Northeastern races http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/01/new-northeastern-polls/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 31 Jul 2010 04:00:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Ron http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/01/new-northeastern-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-25967 Ron Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:12:03 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8805#comment-25967 Ryan, this is why that if Republicans win big in 2010, it is in Obama's interest to keep the economy from recovering and helping Republicans cement another majority like Clinton in 1996 and after. He would be wise to use a strategy along the lines of "If im going down, those bastards are going down with me". Ryan, this is why that if Republicans win big in 2010, it is in Obama’s interest to keep the economy from recovering and helping Republicans cement another majority like Clinton in 1996 and after. He would be wise to use a strategy along the lines of “If im going down, those bastards are going down with me”.

]]> By: ryan http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/01/new-northeastern-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-25879 ryan Wed, 01 Jul 2009 17:20:56 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8805#comment-25879 Ian, While I agree with you partially, look at it for the long term point of view. If they start chipping away at some races, eventually the GOP will be better positioned for all races in the future. Getting GOP governors in some of these states might position these very same governors for senate races down the road (think Mike Castle being competitive Sen candidate in a Dem state like Delaware due to his being Governor and House rep for that state). I agree with you on the house, but also remember Dem governors in charge in some states now are getting blamed for the economy, so if GOP gov's win in 2010 they will probably get praise if the economy recovers under their watch. Not sure how deserved either point is but they're both valid in politics I think. And god knows Mitt used Massachusetts for a presidential run in 2008, which itself will be a springboard for 2012 which he'll likely win. In politics, the oponent is often like aweed, if you don't rip them out by the root they can come back, and if you let them grow for a while you might not be able to stop them later on... Ian,

While I agree with you partially, look at it for the long term point of view.

If they start chipping away at some races, eventually the GOP will be better positioned for all races in the future. Getting GOP governors in some of these states might position these very same governors for senate races down the road (think Mike Castle being competitive Sen candidate in a Dem state like Delaware due to his being Governor and House rep for that state).

I agree with you on the house, but also remember Dem governors in charge in some states now are getting blamed for the economy, so if GOP gov’s win in 2010 they will probably get praise if the economy recovers under their watch. Not sure how deserved either point is but they’re both valid in politics I think.

And god knows Mitt used Massachusetts for a presidential run in 2008, which itself will be a springboard for 2012 which he’ll likely win.

In politics, the oponent is often like aweed, if you don’t rip them out by the root they can come back, and if you let them grow for a while you might not be able to stop them later on…

]]> By: Ian http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/01/new-northeastern-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-25866 Ian Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:38:58 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8805#comment-25866 I'm tired of pundits declaring that GOP gubernatorial victories in the Northeast would somehow indicate that they'd be returning prominence in the region (although I haven't heard that here, Stu Rothenberg and others have engaged in such lazy analysis). Yes, they could pick up 3, maybe more, Governor's mansions in 2010 in the region (PA could flip). But even then, the GOP would be beyond moribund. All of those races are more a product of the personal unpopularity of the Governor than of the party or its policies. They'd still be crushed in the state legislatures, have no chance in most of the House races, and are bleeding Senate seats. Yet, I keep hearing this same talking point repeated ad nasuem. In truth, the real indicator we ought to be watching for tea leaves on the state level are not the Governors, but the state legislatures. If a lot of Democratic Governors are ousted but the state legislature compositions remain the same, than it would indicate to me that voters are just venting their rage at the incumbent executive but are still open to the party and its ideals. I’m tired of pundits declaring that GOP gubernatorial victories in the Northeast would somehow indicate that they’d be returning prominence in the region (although I haven’t heard that here, Stu Rothenberg and others have engaged in such lazy analysis). Yes, they could pick up 3, maybe more, Governor’s mansions in 2010 in the region (PA could flip). But even then, the GOP would be beyond moribund. All of those races are more a product of the personal unpopularity of the Governor than of the party or its policies. They’d still be crushed in the state legislatures, have no chance in most of the House races, and are bleeding Senate seats. Yet, I keep hearing this same talking point repeated ad nasuem. In truth, the real indicator we ought to be watching for tea leaves on the state level are not the Governors, but the state legislatures. If a lot of Democratic Governors are ousted but the state legislature compositions remain the same, than it would indicate to me that voters are just venting their rage at the incumbent executive but are still open to the party and its ideals.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/01/new-northeastern-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-25862 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:26:55 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8805#comment-25862 In New Hampshire, lets not forget that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is also mentioned as a possible candidate for the New Hampshire senate. Conventional wisdosm however is that John Sunnu is first in line, so if he does decide to get into the race she probably won't have a chance. On the other hand, as a statewide offical and being fairly unknown she could have a much higher ceiling than Sunnuu, on the other hand, she has never been elected to any office, as the Attorney General in New Hampshire is appointed, and while being reappointed by Dem. gov Lynch can give her some bipartisan creditinals, Lynch in general is only barely tolerated by liberal Democrats, so I'm not sure how much of a boost she would get. She is an unknown quantity. In Massachusetts, Patrick has been unpopular for quite a while, so for this reelection to be so close against 2nd tier Republicans is not to be expected, knowing that before Patrick Republicans were holding the governor's mansion for about 15 years. If Patrick can improve his numbers then he will have a signficantly easier time for reelection considering how Democratic the state is, but if not it's going to be tough. Also I disagree that Kerry would be a stronger candidate. Yes she has higher name recognition but her crediblity was shattered when she lost by 20 points to Patrick in 2006, and when trying to gear up for a rematch, that type of loss tends to you alot. The Republicans are better served with a fresh face. Nothing really to say about New York. His margninal gains are just that marginal. In New Jersey, while Corzine continues to be the underdog, he is succedding in driving up Cristie's disapproval rating.. it has been increasing in the more recent polls. This is Corzine's only chance: if he can make Cristie as unpopular as himself, and make Cristie to look like a right wing wacko, then the generally Democratic-leaning independents will come home (as they almost always do) and give Corzine a narrow victory. So while a 10%+ deficit is something that doom incumbent governor's elsewhere, NJ unique history at least still gives Corzine a chance. I suspect that the captial hill hearings will increase Cristie's disapproval rating even more. In New Hampshire, lets not forget that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is also mentioned as a possible candidate for the New Hampshire senate. Conventional wisdosm however is that John Sunnu is first in line, so if he does decide to get into the race she probably won’t have a chance. On the other hand, as a statewide offical and being fairly unknown she could have a much higher ceiling than Sunnuu, on the other hand, she has never been elected to any office, as the Attorney General in New Hampshire is appointed, and while being reappointed by Dem. gov Lynch can give her some bipartisan creditinals, Lynch in general is only barely tolerated by liberal Democrats, so I’m not sure how much of a boost she would get. She is an unknown quantity.

In Massachusetts, Patrick has been unpopular for quite a while, so for this reelection to be so close against 2nd tier Republicans is not to be expected, knowing that before Patrick Republicans were holding the governor’s mansion for about 15 years. If Patrick can improve his numbers then he will have a signficantly easier time for reelection considering how Democratic the state is, but if not it’s going to be tough. Also I disagree that Kerry would be a stronger candidate. Yes she has higher name recognition but her crediblity was shattered when she lost by 20 points to Patrick in 2006, and when trying to gear up for a rematch, that type of loss tends to you alot. The Republicans are better served with a fresh face.

Nothing really to say about New York. His margninal gains are just that marginal.

In New Jersey, while Corzine continues to be the underdog, he is succedding in driving up Cristie’s disapproval rating.. it has been increasing in the more recent polls. This is Corzine’s only chance: if he can make Cristie as unpopular as himself, and make Cristie to look like a right wing wacko, then the generally Democratic-leaning independents will come home (as they almost always do) and give Corzine a narrow victory. So while a 10%+ deficit is something that doom incumbent governor’s elsewhere, NJ unique history at least still gives Corzine a chance. I suspect that the captial hill hearings will increase Cristie’s disapproval rating even more.

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