In 2006 and 2008, the GOP was routed throughout the Northeast, losing numerous governorships and congressional seats. It remains to be seen whether Republicans can make up any ground at the federal level - Democrats are narrowly favored to pick-up a second Senate seat from New Hampshire - but they are well-positioned to capture some gubernatorial mansions.
Hodes has an edge in New Hampshire
John Sununu is expected to announce his 2010 plans shortly - perhaps in the coming days - but a new ARG poll confirms that he’ll be no savior for New Hampshire Republicans: 8 months after losing his re-election bid by 7%, he is trailing by almost as much in a new American Research Group poll. The survey finds probable Democratic nominee Paul Hodes ahead 40% to 34% - the same margin the pollster had found in March.
More interesting than the Democrat’s advantage is the fact that Sununu is stuck at 34% - a dismal showing for a man who was a U.S. Senator just 6 months ago. Combined with the fact that Sununu is better known than Hodes and that he was already stuck in the low 40s through the 50 polls released in the 2008 cycle, this sure raises questions about his electability: Is it conceivable that a majority of New Hampshire residents would suddenly decide to back a man they have knowingly shunned for years?
Sununu is one of the only options that New Hampshire Republicans have available. As such, it’s tough to say that it would be good news for the GOP if Sununu were to pass on the race. Yet, while Sununu would start at a higher level, he also looks to have a low ceiling and fielding him might condemn Republicans to relive 2008 rather than attempt to start anew.
Et tu, Massachusetts?
Over the past six months, two polls had found brutal numbers for Governor Deval Patrick. A March survey had him narrowly trailing the state Treasurer in a hypothetical Democratic primary, and an April survey found that Massachusetts voters were so dissatisfied with Patrick that they were nostalgic for the days of Mitt Romney. But neither poll tested any general election match-ups.
Well, Rasmussen just went there and found very worrisome numbers for Patrick’s re-election prospects. Not only is the incumbent stuck well below 50% against two businessman, but he is even narrowly trailing one of them. Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% as an independent candidate back in 2007, has a 41-40 edge; Charlie Baker trails 41% to 36%. Interestingly, both Republicans enjoy higher name recognition than you might suspect (especially Mihos, with just 18% who don’t have an opinion about him).
This race will largely be a referendum about Patrick and his leadership. Just as in New York and New Jersey, the Governor’s unpopularity will make it hard for Democrats to cast the spotlight on the opposition - and it’s not like Massachusetts has shied away from electing Republicans in the past. More than his state’s blue roots, Patrick’s saving grace was expected to be the weakness of the Republican bench but if even Mihos manages to start with a strong favorability rating and a 1% edge, this contest could certainly be tougher than expected for Democrats. Former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey is also mentioned as a contender, and she could make an even stronger challenger.
Governor closes gap with Giuliani by 9%, still trails by 17%
David Paterson was hoping that his confrontational stance with New York’s state Senate would help his poll numbers and the latest Marist poll, just like the latest Quinnipiac poll, has found the slightest of bumps. While Paterson’s approval rating is stuck at a dismal 22% and his match-ups results remain pathetic, they are at least inching upwards: He is crushed 69% to 24% by Andrew Cuomo (70-21 in May), 54% to 37% by Rudy Giuliani (56% to 32% in May) and he actually has seized a 41% to 40% edge against Rick Lazio (he trailed by 3% in May). Cuomo leads both Republicans, 68-22 against Lazio and 51-33 against Giuliani.
It’s telling that Paterson can cut his deficit against Giuliani by 9% and still look to be in a huge hole - down 17% as an incumbent is a sure sign of defeat. On the other hand, hi general election results are back in the realm of what we election watchers can deal with rationally - and that’s saying a lot considering the depths of unpopularity Paterson hit in the spring. Dare we stay that Democrats would have a glimmer of hope even if they ended up with Paterson as their nominee?
Of course, for that to happen would require the Attorney General to surprise us and not jump in the Democratic primary, as Cuomo looks all but certain to defeat Paterson if he runs. As for Lazio, he should not be dismissed on the basis of these numbers. Yes, he is blown out of the water by Cuomo but that’s not a contest any Republican should have much hope of winning. Given that Lazio has been out of the public eye for nearly a decade, tying the incumbent Governor - and performing only 16% worse than the formidable Giuliani - isn’t that bad a sign.
Christie stays above 50%
The two most recent New Jersey polls confirm that the situation is critical for Governor Jon Corzine. The first is a Strategic Vision poll that shows Corzine posting a dismal 34% approval rating and trailing Chris Christie by a 51% to 39% margin. The second is a PPP survey that has Christie up 51% to 41%, including a brutal 60-26 lead among independents. These are the third and fourth consecutive poll that finds Christie at or above the 50% mark. What more needs to be said?
The situation gets worse for the Governor when you consider that Christie achieves majority support despite receiving only 16% support from Democrats so it’s not like Corzine is underperforming among his base. We shall now see whether coverage of Christie’s appearance in front of a House committee charged with investigating potential prosecutorial abuses will have any impact on the race.
In New Hampshire, lets not forget that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is also mentioned as a possible candidate for the New Hampshire senate. Conventional wisdosm however is that John Sunnu is first in line, so if he does decide to get into the race she probably won’t have a chance. On the other hand, as a statewide offical and being fairly unknown she could have a much higher ceiling than Sunnuu, on the other hand, she has never been elected to any office, as the Attorney General in New Hampshire is appointed, and while being reappointed by Dem. gov Lynch can give her some bipartisan creditinals, Lynch in general is only barely tolerated by liberal Democrats, so I’m not sure how much of a boost she would get. She is an unknown quantity.
In Massachusetts, Patrick has been unpopular for quite a while, so for this reelection to be so close against 2nd tier Republicans is not to be expected, knowing that before Patrick Republicans were holding the governor’s mansion for about 15 years. If Patrick can improve his numbers then he will have a signficantly easier time for reelection considering how Democratic the state is, but if not it’s going to be tough. Also I disagree that Kerry would be a stronger candidate. Yes she has higher name recognition but her crediblity was shattered when she lost by 20 points to Patrick in 2006, and when trying to gear up for a rematch, that type of loss tends to you alot. The Republicans are better served with a fresh face.
Nothing really to say about New York. His margninal gains are just that marginal.
In New Jersey, while Corzine continues to be the underdog, he is succedding in driving up Cristie’s disapproval rating.. it has been increasing in the more recent polls. This is Corzine’s only chance: if he can make Cristie as unpopular as himself, and make Cristie to look like a right wing wacko, then the generally Democratic-leaning independents will come home (as they almost always do) and give Corzine a narrow victory. So while a 10%+ deficit is something that doom incumbent governor’s elsewhere, NJ unique history at least still gives Corzine a chance. I suspect that the captial hill hearings will increase Cristie’s disapproval rating even more.
I’m tired of pundits declaring that GOP gubernatorial victories in the Northeast would somehow indicate that they’d be returning prominence in the region (although I haven’t heard that here, Stu Rothenberg and others have engaged in such lazy analysis). Yes, they could pick up 3, maybe more, Governor’s mansions in 2010 in the region (PA could flip). But even then, the GOP would be beyond moribund. All of those races are more a product of the personal unpopularity of the Governor than of the party or its policies. They’d still be crushed in the state legislatures, have no chance in most of the House races, and are bleeding Senate seats. Yet, I keep hearing this same talking point repeated ad nasuem. In truth, the real indicator we ought to be watching for tea leaves on the state level are not the Governors, but the state legislatures. If a lot of Democratic Governors are ousted but the state legislature compositions remain the same, than it would indicate to me that voters are just venting their rage at the incumbent executive but are still open to the party and its ideals.
Ian,
While I agree with you partially, look at it for the long term point of view.
If they start chipping away at some races, eventually the GOP will be better positioned for all races in the future. Getting GOP governors in some of these states might position these very same governors for senate races down the road (think Mike Castle being competitive Sen candidate in a Dem state like Delaware due to his being Governor and House rep for that state).
I agree with you on the house, but also remember Dem governors in charge in some states now are getting blamed for the economy, so if GOP gov’s win in 2010 they will probably get praise if the economy recovers under their watch. Not sure how deserved either point is but they’re both valid in politics I think.
And god knows Mitt used Massachusetts for a presidential run in 2008, which itself will be a springboard for 2012 which he’ll likely win.
In politics, the oponent is often like aweed, if you don’t rip them out by the root they can come back, and if you let them grow for a while you might not be able to stop them later on…
Ryan, this is why that if Republicans win big in 2010, it is in Obama’s interest to keep the economy from recovering and helping Republicans cement another majority like Clinton in 1996 and after. He would be wise to use a strategy along the lines of “If im going down, those bastards are going down with me”.