Campaign Diaries

In a unanimous ruling that might finally bring closure to the Minnesota Senate race, the state Supreme Court ruled in Al Franken’s favor. “Al Franken received the highest number of votes legally cast and is entitled to receive the certificate of election as United States Senator from the State of Minnesota,” wrote the majority made up of 5 judges who heard the case.

A decisive victory for the Democrat

To win his case, Coleman had the burden of proving that the lower court had erred to such an extent that the Supreme Court should not defer to that three-judge panel. In today’s ruling, the judges made it clear that the Republican had not done so. He has “not shown that the trial court’s findings of fact are clearly erroneous or that the court committed an error of law or abused its discretion.” The Court also explicitly rejected Coleman’s contention that the disparate standards used between counties violated equal protection rights.

So is it over? 8 months after votes were cast, nearly three months after a lower court declared Franken the victor and a month after the Supreme Court heard the case, are we finally done with this saga? Will Al Franken finally get to join Congress, giving Democrats a key additional vote as we head to high-profiles debates on health care reform, cap-and-trade and a Supreme Court nomination?

If it was clear from the June 1st hearings that the judges were not buying the GOP’s arguments, it was not a given that they would all agree to dismiss Coleman’s complain. After all, the lower court’s decision was also unanimous, so a total of 8 state judges have now sided with the Democrat and none with the Republican.

This unanimity puts a lot of pressure on Coleman to drop his case and heightens the risks of a backlash against Republicans if they pursue matters at a time public opinion has already turned against them; it also makes it very unlikely that federal courts would agree to intervene if Coleman decided to appeal.

Also making federal intervention improbable is the fact that the conservative Supreme Court will not want to establish the existence of strong due process rights - the type that would be required to find that Minnesota is violating federal law. In 2000, the conservative Justices were careful to insist that Bush vs. Gore applies only in present circumstances, and that irrelevance as precedent would be endangered if they stepped in the Minnesota dispute.

Smallest of openings for Coleman

However, none of this means that Franken will waltz into the Senate and the judges denied the Democrat a full victory. Instead of making the ruling effective immediately, judges ruled that Coleman had 10 days to ask for a rehearing, giving the GOP a slight opening. The ball is now in Coleman’s court: Will he choose to continue his contest? Will he appeal?

If Coleman concedes, Franken could be sworn in in a matter of days. But if he appeals, all eyes will turn towards Governor Tim Pawlenty: Will he sign the election certificate? Judges stopped short of giving Franken all he wanted: While the Court ruled that he was “entitled to receive the certificate of election,” it did not require it. So what will the Governor do?

Pawlenty recently addressed the issue in carefully worded comments that led media outlets to reports that he was preparing to distance himself from Coleman. “I’m going to do whatever the court says,” he said. “When the court decides that issue, as soon as I’m directed or required to sign that certificate, I will. I am not going to hold it up or delay it in any fashion.” Since the Court did not order the Governor to sign the certificate, Pawlenty still has room to argue that he has been directed or required to do so if an appeal has been registered.

If Pawlenty attempts to delay signing the certificate, we’re facing a whole array of questions: Will Senate Democrats finally force the issue and attempt to seat Franken? will Senate Republican attempt to block such a move? will federal courts agree to hear the case? how long would it take for them to come back with a decision?

In other good news for Democrats hoping to get all of their Senators able to cast votes, West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd has checked out of the hospital and is returning to Washington.