For once, Illinois Senator Roland Burris got some good news today: Having spent a few months reviewing Burris’s sworn testimony to the state legislature, an Illinois prosecutor concluded that there were no grounds to charge him with perjury. “A review of the evidence, consisting of numerous interviews and documents, indicates there is insufficient evidence to prove Senator Burris made a statement he knew to be false,” John Schmidt said.
Burris quickly fired a triumphant statement. “I am glad that the truth has prevailed,” he said. “As I have said from the beginning, I have never engaged in any pay-to-play, never perjured myself, and came to this seat in an honest and legal way. Today’s announcement confirms all of that.”
Burris is overstating the significance of this development: The prosecutor explained that the Senator’s responses to the panel were too vague and incomplete to pass the high bar of perjury, but that is not the same as exculpating him from allegations that he came to his seat dishonestly. After all, there is no doubt that Burris failed to mention very important contacts he’d had with Rod Blagojevich’s staff despite being asked about it. Schmidt might have determined that Burris phrased his answers carefully enough for such neglect not to be ground for prosecution, but it remains nonetheless shady.
Also don’t forget Burris’s statements back in February, when he matter-of-factly told reporters that, yes, he had tried to raise money for Blagojevich after the Governor’s brother Robert informed him he was being considered for Obama’s Senate seat. Burris thought of this as a defense because he eventually told Robert that he couldn’t raise the money.
And yet, it’s undeniable that Schmidt’s decision offers huge relief for Burris. It’s easy to forget that, for much of the winter, Burris’s Senate career looked sure to be cut short: The Chicago Tribune and a number of Democrats, including Dick Durbin, called for his resignation, while Governor Pat Quinn had promised that he would call a special election even if Burris did not vacate the seat! But Democrats eased the pressure, allowing Burris to survive the media’s attention span and deflect attention to other storylines. No one now expects Burris to resign, and this latest development will only strengthen the Senator’s hand.
On the other hand, it will take fare more to help Burris’s re-election prospects. His credibility remains low - not to mention his poll numbers - and the conventional wisdom remains that Burris will announce his retirement in the coming months.
Aware that he is still in no condition to mount a competitive run, the Senator is attempting to buy himself time. The e-mail he sent to his supporters today after learning of Schmidt’s decision included a fundraising plea - typically a sign that a politician is asking for campaign support; yet, the demand was framed in legislative terms rather than electoral ones:
For whatever time I am in the senate, I have one goal… to do a good job for the people of Illinois. The crucial deadline for the next second-quarter financial report is nearing. This is one of the measures by which each officeholder is judged. Your immediate contribution will demonstrate the strong support I’m receiving to bring progressive change to Illinois… Any amount you can give is important in our quest to make a difference for the people of Illinois. Even a contribution of $10, $25, $100 or $250 will help.
Burris is trying to gauge how much support he could muster if he were to run - and waiting to see whether the Democratic establishment will be divided enough for him to gain an opening.
Ever since Schakowsky announced she would not run, Democrats have been headed towards a clash between Alexi Giannoulias and Chris Kennedy, with the potential of an outsider contender like Danny Davis, Stephanie Neely and Cheryle R. Jackson. But the situation is now getting much more complicated: This week, we learned that Democratic powerhouse Lisa Madigan is looking at the race far more seriously than anyone expected. The AP reported that Barack Obama himself had met with the Attorney General to urge her to seek his old seat!
The Chicago Sun-Times soon added that Madigan was demanding a White House endorsement and a clear primary field as a condition for her entrance, but neither condition are likely to be met. For one, Obama spokesperson Roland Gibbs state that Obama would stay out of a competitive primary. Second, Giannoulias, in no mood to leave the race, fired off a strongly worded statement saying he would not step aside for Madigan:
When Barack Obama ran for this seat in 2004, he was not the choice of the insiders. He became the choice of the people because of the strength of his ideas and his ideals. Illinois has been ill-served by state party leaders who think they know better than voters. Now more than ever, anyone who seeks this seat must convince voters they have the ideas that will get our economy on its feet and put our people back to work, not just prove that they have the political clout to demand a clear field and win appointment.
Sure, Giannoulias could simply be trying to scare Madigan away from the race. Given that he himself is a creature of the establishment (a former banker and a friend of Obama’s, he recruited to run by Joe Biden and Dick Durbin) it’s hard to see him resisting a phone call from the White House. It also remains to be seen whether the president is serious about his promise not to intervene given that he was willing to invite Madigan to the White House.
But for now, this confluence of events makes it possible to envision a tough, divisive primary between Madigan, Kennedy and Giannoulias. That scenario would open a small door for Burris: To clinch the nomination, he would only need to win a small enough share of the vote for his victory to be plausible; he is, after all, as an incumbent and the Senate’s only African-American member. The general election, of course, is a whole other issue.
I belive that one the reasons why Chris Kennedy hasn’t formely announced his run is because of Lisa Madigan, and the chances are very high that he would ultimately pass on the race if Madigan did go in.
The scenario of a 4 way primary with Burris is therefore unlikely. If this dismissal of purgery exponetially increases Burris’ approval rating among African Americans, then yes there is a chance he could win a divided primary. And there would be very heavy pressure for the establishment to go around one candidate if it looks like Burris could win (likely Mandigan if she runs, probably Giannoulias if not. I know Rahm likes Kennedy but most of the Illinios establishment seems to favor Giannaoulias sans Kennedy). However, if Burris is still doing as bad as he is now with is supposed core constuiency, then it won’t matter even if he gets in a competive 4 way. Blacks may not be as sour on Burris as other racial groups, but they are far from enamored from him either (the Black politcal elites in Illinos may be a different story…) and I would be very suprised if Obama didn’t step in the primary then if it looked like Burris would win as there is no chance he could win a general election against Mark Kirk and he would even struggle alot versus a generic Republican.
Even if Burris gets his wish of a contentious 4-way primary, he won’t go far with 845$ in the bank.
It seems to me also that Madigan put these impossible-to-meet terms to Obama because she doesn’t want to run for Senate, but she doesn’t want to shun the President either.
Anyway, the primary is just eight months away and there isn’t enough time for Burris to rectify the situation. He maybe the incumbent, but he is hardly a powerhouse in the senate or a recognizable brand-name, like John McCain or Chris Dodd, to hope for a late resurgence.
Panos, that’s an interest interpretation of Lisa Madigan’s actions. But that means if, Obama DOES follow through, she would have to also follow through.