Campaign Diaries

It is no surprise - she had formed an exploratory committee back in December - but she finally made it official: Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison announced that she will be running for Texas Governor, setting up a high-profile primary battle with incumbent Rick Perry.

The blockbuster primary could prove harder than is commonly thought

Hutchison, who had already considered running for governor in 2006, did not pass on her long-held ambition for a second time. But her unusual primary challenge to an incumbent sets up one of the cycle’s blockbuster battles. On one side, a 16-year Senator who is prominent enough to have been mentioned as a potential vice-presidential pick for John McCain. On the other, the country’s longest-serving governor and one of the darling of the conservative movement.

Recent polls show that Hutchison starts with a clear advantage. Yet, she should not expect an easy victory. Both Perry and her are popular among Texas Republicans, who have grown used to thinking of both as their state party’s leaders; now, they’re suddenly being asked to arbitrate a battle between the two - a situation that will surely lead to a volatile campaign in which voters could be easily persuadable and the two camps’ enthusiasm could be decisive.

While Perry’s ideological positioning fits better with the state’s Republican base, Hutchison is surely banking on the fact that she is no moderate. Rather, she is in the mainstream of the GOP’s Senate caucus and in few other states would her gubernatorial candidacy be viewed as a challenge from the left. In recently blasting Perry’s decision to reject stimulus funds, for instance, she was looking to tag him as an extremist rather than as a conservative.

Yet, you would think she would want to stay away from issues that project neat ideological fault lines. After all, Texas’s GOP politics are clearly skewed to the far-right: After Perry’s recent statement that Texas should secede, a poll found that 51% of Republicans approved of his comments. Conservative activists could now direct this rage at the federal government towards Hutchison, who comes from Capitol Hill.

Perry should also be helped by prominent Republicans. Sarah Palin has already endorsed him and her involvement is sure to get other 2012 hopefuls to pay attention: Mike Huckabee has already announced that he is backing Marco Rubio in Florida, so is it conceivable that he stay away from this primary? For Perry, nationalizing this race could make it easier to get voters to choose based on their ideological preferences.

(In a fascinating twist, the Dallas Morning News reports that Hutchison has had to answer questions about her support for Ford against Reagan in the 1976 primary; the Senator’s supporters respond by pointing out to Perry’s history as a member of the opposition: He won a state legislative election in 1984 as a Democrat and chaired Al Gore’s 1988 Texas campaign!)

Democrats are stuck in second roles

The primary winner will be heavily favored in the general election. Yet, at least one poll, found an electability differential: Democrats could have a shot if the more polarizing Perry survives a nasty Republican battle. Perry is viewed as very conservative, which could pose some problems no matter the competitiveness of the Republican primary; but a prolonged Hutchison effort to portray him as an extremist will make it that much more difficult for him to court moderates.

On the other hand, Democrats are in no position to take advantage of the GOP’s gubernatorial divisions; their only declared candidate is former Ambassador Tom Schieffer, whose extensive ties to Bush (who appointed him to numerous positions) should prove a problem in attempts to motivate the base.

Yet, the Hutchison-Perry showdown could get so divisive as to hurt Texas Republicans whether or not Democrats get their act together in the gubernatorial contest. With no other high-profile contest on the Texas ballot in 2010, it is possible to envision centrist Republicans who supported Hutchison or conservatives who supported Perry not turning out in the general election, depending on the primary’s outcome. Such depressed Republican turnout would damage GOP candidates up-and-down the ballot.

Such a scenario might look far-fetched, but consider that this primary is showing every sign of being high-profile, ideologically driven and nationally significant. Put together, these factors are a recipe for a nasty and divisive primary that could leave the GOP with long lasting wounds.

What about Hutchison’s Senate seat?

Hutchison is not up for re-election until 2012, so she does not have to endanger her job; she could wait to see whether she wins the Governor’s race and quit Congress in December 2010 if she does. Yet, it’s been an open secret that Hutchison is looking to resign during the gubernatorial election to devote herself fully to the state election and show her commitment to moving to Austin. Such a move would create a currently non-existent race out of thin air and it would spark a special election.

Now that Hutchison has officially announced her gubernatorial run, the most important question does not seem to be whether she will resign but when she will do so. If she quits by late September, the (two-round) special election could be held as early as the fall of 2009; that could prove a boost to Democrats who have already been preparing and fundraising for the race - Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp. If she resigns after in early October, the special election would be held in conjunction with the regularly scheduled spring primaries.

In the latter case, Democrats would probably not have to worry about heavy GOP turnout driven by the party’s gubernatorial primary. The Hutchison-Perry contest would likely be decided in the March primary rather than go to a runoff on the same April date at which the Senate election would be decided; but if the presence of third-party candidates delays the resolution of the Hutchison-Perry showdown, it could mean trouble for the DSCC.