Vadranor: I have often criticized the Senate process that occurred in CO and NY. However, I do think that what happened in De was particularly egregious. Yes, appointing a caretaker can be a great thing as it allows the Senator to be decided by a primary - but that was not Minner’s motivation and there is something particularly troubling in making sure a seat goes to the son of the person who is leaving.
Can another Democrat emerge and take the nomination away from Biden? Sure, but Gillibrand and Bennet’s nominations are not predetermined either. And the fact that ambitious former Lieutenant Governor John Carney decided not to run for Senate speaks to the pressure ambitious state Democrats must be feeling to leave let Biden have the seat.
Jaxx: On Kentucky, I agree with your point about ranking the race at the top as long as Bunning is running - I just have lost much of my confidence that he will in recent weeks. He is clearly being outmaneuvered and he explicitly stated that he would leave if he does not raise enough money. If he does stick around, however, the race will obviously rise above Missouri and Ohio. On Delaware, I doubt that (Beau) Biden can look forward to raising his numbers just by raising his profile as his name recognition is surely very high already.]]>
Simcox is not the candidate Arizona Republicans need to reaffirm the GOPs commitment to the State. Gun crime conviction…lied to the police officers during investigating that crime, sentenced to probation. Simcox has lost hundreds of Minutemen volunteers nationally becuase he refuses to show the MCDC financials (990s) from 07 and 08. He also refusesd to release to the public the MCDC By Laws written in 2006, and will not release any updated versions as well. He also refuses to show the public the Minuteman Fence financials for 2006, 07, 08….a fence he claimed to build in the Isrieli barrier styled with electronic sensors, razor wires, etc. He built 10 miles of 5 strand barbed wire fence on a buddies property in an effort to raise even more money! He then built .9 miles of steel-mesh fence that 25% complete, and hasnt been touched by volunteers since early 2007!
Any volunteer who demands to see the Minuteman Fence financials is lied to and or terminated! To date, Simcox is still taking donations for that Minuteman Fence….see it at http://www.minutemanhq.com Donations come in, how much and when will he ever get back to uilding what he said he would?
Then there is the matter of the PACS he created. Minuteman CDC PAC, and Minuteman PAC. Millions in donations every year for the past 3 years…..less than 3% actually get put in candidates hands. Think hes been saving it up for his run against McCain? Not hardly. The money raised in the PACs have all been spent on the same companys that run MCDCs public relations and marketing efforts….ever hear of Alan Keyes?
Alan Keyes runs and owns Declaration Alliance. MCDC and its sister efforts are a project of Declaration Alliance…..which means Keyes has his hands all around Minuteman donations. Keyes ran for President at least twice and Seante once…..not becuase he thought he could win, but because he knew he could raise a ton of money by losing those races!
Now Simcox is following Alan Keyes lead and raising money to lose a race against John McCain….who gets re-elected everytime in Arizona by big margins. Not a chance in hell Simcox can win, and he knows it…but it sure is a great way to raise money for the Declaration Allaince, the Minuteman, and the PACS. Whos going to be sitting pretty when Simcox fails to win the Primary? Simcox, Keyes, and all those pretty little companies that do their marketing campaigns.
I know, I was Simcoxs MCDC AZ State Director.]]>
I thnk that until Jim Bunning declares he is not the nominee that the KY race should be number 1 and be classifed lean take over. Bunning has said several controversial comments and has a ill demenor on Capital Hill, a reason why he is unpopular. However, he is very conservative and popular with the conservative base, and there aren’t any credible candidates who have said that they would actively challange him. Plus Bunning now has a reelection website, and indicatio that he is more likely to stay in rather than get out no matter what happens (altho the poor fundraising could indeed force him out). Grayson would be the defacto nominee and while I wouldn’t say that the redness of Kentucky is enough to push him ahead: both of his prospective Democratic opponents are state wide officals and Kentucky is quite hosiptial to Democrats at the local level (and perhaps Hillary could have won Kentucky if she was the Dem’s nominee, just like how her Husband was able to win it). It is no question that GOP prospects would go up by alot if Bunning isn’t running.
On CT. the rating is correct. Dodd is weak because he is personally weak, not because the GOP candidates are that inspiring. (Dodd must be happy that Gov. Jodi Rell isn’t running against him, because she would be a major challange to him even if he wasn’t saddled with banking ethicial problems, and would definitly crush him with them. If Dodd improves his image among Connenicutans, and Obama will help him alot on that regard, then the race will become easier for him.
On Delaware, the situation will change depending on whatever Mike Castle runs or not. If he does run, Castle would be a formidable opponet. Polls may show him ahead of Beau Biden for now, but I doubt Castle would have such an advantage for long. Castle has been in Delaware politics for decades, while Beau Biden is only a recent entrant (although with a rather famous father who hails from Delaware). Plus Biden has been in Iraq fufilling his duties as part of the Delware National Guard, instead of building up his accomplishments as the attorny general. That, not because of a supposed neopotisim is the reason why Castle is ahead I suspect. If Biden had been appointed to fill his father’s seat directly then yes you could argue for that, but it isn’t as clear cut as it should be. Of course a Senate seat is much more important than a house seat, and Democrats willl attack Castle (he voted against Obama’s stimulas for example) enough to erase Castle’s advantage, although I believe that Castle would lose to Biden by 3% at worst; it’s not undeniable that he is popular in his home state despite being a rare Republican.
On Nevada, I think that Harry Reid is strong tied to Obama. If the ecnomny is still doing badly by mid 2010, and his approval ratings sink, Obama will also likely sink in popularity in Nevada, possibly to the point of Reid being even more endagered than Chris Dodd, even against a 2nd tier challange. However, if Obama is still popular then Reid will have little trouble absent Jon Porter deciding that he he rather go into the senate then contintue a lobbyist career, and even then Reid could still go over top thanks to Obama.
In terms of Utah, I don’t think the special guberntorial election will draw away many challangers from Bennet. The guy would replace Huntsman, Gary Hubert, is more of an Orthodox conservative than Huntsman and I also think that he will run for reelction once he becomes the incumbent, meaning that it may be foolhard for other officals to challange to him, both in the GOP and from Democrats. However, if it looks like Bennat will lose the GOP nomination, Democrats could field a credible challange. Utah House Rep Matheson would be a good choice, although even in that scenario it would be a 50/50 at absolute best, while he is safe in his own district and likely will be moved into a an even safer disrict as Republicans have largely given up on seating him and may try to pack in as many Democrats as possible. I don’t think the Salt Lake City mayor could win as SLC is a strong base but far from enough in Utah.]]>
And Vadranor, surely it’s not the mighty and beloved (kidding) David Paterson who is keeping Steve Israel, Scott Stringer, and company from running in 2010. Talented and well-known people could easily have run against the new senators in NY and CO. If we don’t have primaries in those states the blame (if that’s the right word) for that extends beyond the governors involved. And while you might not like appointing someone who’s going to run for the seat, that’s certainly the norm. We haven’t had a place-holder similar to Kaufman since 1993-1994 (Harlan Mathews, appointed to replace Al Gore).]]>
In Delaware, by contrast, Governor Minner chose a place holder so that whoever wins the 2101 Democratic nomination will do so by their own efforts. It may well be that Beau Biden will become the nominee, but this is not predetermined. By the way, Kaufman’s first name is Edward not Paul, but he is usually referred to as Ted.]]>