Campaign Diaries

In North Carolina, Marshall joins the mix of potential contenders

Elaine Marshall’s name has long been circulating as a potential challenger to North Carolina Senator Richard Burr, but it usually comes with an asterisk warning that she is unlikely to jump in the race. Well, Marshall has just offered what is I believe the first statement indicating she is mulling a run. “It’s on my radar screen. I have not excluded myself from that,” she said. But she went on to imply she would not be making a decision shortly. “Right now we have a world of hurt down at the General Assembly,” she said.

Marshall was first elected to her current position [Secretary of State] in 1996 and has won easily re-election three times since then. But her hopes of advancing further were durably damaged by her failure to get much traction in the 2002 Senate race. Despite occupying a prominent statewide office, she came in third in the Democratic primary, receiving only 15% of the vote. Since then, she has been unwilling to seek a promotion, passing on a number of opportunities like the 2004 and 2008 Senate races.

This has led many to conclude that Marshall is no longer interested in seeking higher office and that, even if she is, her window has closed. Age-wise, it is true that Marshall, who will be 64 on Election Day 2010, is older than your typical victorious candidate but Senators being sworn in past 60 is not uncommon (see Jeanne Shaheen and Jim Risch just in the past cycle). And while it is true that she is no longer the Democrats’ freshest face, the fact that other statewide officeholders like Roy Cooper and Walter Dalton are passing on the race provides her an opening.

As a politician with four statewide victories under her belt, Marshall would make a highly credible general election candidate. But what could make her most attractive to many Democrats is that she is one of the only options left who does not come from the party’s most rightist faction. The DSCC is currently courting Rep. Heath Shuler and Rep. Mike McIntyre, who are among the most conservative members of the House; in the Senate, they would be far closer to Ben Nelson than to Kay Hagan. That makes them vulnerable in the Democratic primary - and a mainstream Democrat like Marshall could certainly take advantage of that.

Note that a Marshall victory would make North Carolina only the second state with a female Governor and 2 female Senators. Washington is the only state with such a line-up.

[Update: I forgot to mention the important point that Marshall is not up for re-election in 2010, so she could run for Senate without endangering her job. In fact, this is the first Senate race since 2002 that will be disputed on a year the Secretary of State position is not up for grabs; in both 2004 and 2008 (two races she passed on), Marshall did not have that luxury. This might not be enough to convince her to run, but it should certainly help her decision.]

Madigan confirms she is more interested in Springfield than Washington

House members who want to run for Senate can transfer whatever money they already have in their bank account to a statewide campaign. (This is what makes someone like Rep. Joe Sestak look like a formidable candidate as soon as he hints he will jump in.) Yet, money raised for a state election cannot be transferred to a Senate campaign because federal fundraising rules differ from state fundraising rules.

This looks to be the biggest stumbling-block for those who are hoping that Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan runs for Senate rather than challenge incumbent Pat Quinn in the Democrats’ gubernatorial primary. Madigan, who had long been preparing for the 2010 race, has $4 million stocked up in her state account. If she were to jump in a federal race, that money would be unusable and she would have to start from zero. This would put her at a clear disadvantage relatively to Alexi Giannoulias, who has already raised more than $1 million since he announced his candidacy, and Rep. Jan Schalowsky, who could just transfer her House balance.

Less than a month ago, Madigan surprised many by saying she was considering the Senate race at the DSCC’s urging. But her fundraising efforts tell another story. Last week, Politico reported that Madigan was organizing a June 11th fundraiser to collect contributions for state elections. In other words, she is looking to add to the $4 million that would be worth nothing if she sought to succeed Roland Burris. That does not look like a sign that she is running for Senate.

“Lisa has also been rumored as a viable candidate for both the Governor’s office and the Senate,” says the fundraiser invitation in what is somewhat of a disingenuous sentence as it seems to suggest that the contributions donor make at this fundraiser could be used in a Senate race. Might Madigan be portraying herself as more open to a federal race than she is in order to get more people interested in contributing?

Of course, none of this gives us a definite clue as to whether Madigan will jump in the gubernatorial race since she could use these funds to run for re-election or to challenge Quinn. New York’s Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo, finds himself in a similar situation: He can continue claiming he is “planning” to run for re-election; insofar as fundraising is concerned, that certainly does not endanger his ability to end up running for Governor.