Campaign Diaries

In an unexpected move, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy added her name to the growing list of Democrats who dislike Kirsten Gillibrand but are unwilling to challenge her. “I’m not running,” she said yesterday, citing personal reasons.

As you all no doubt remember, McCarthy was Gillibrand’s earliest and for a while (though no longer) harshest critic. After a train shooting took her husband’s life, McCarthy took on a Long Island Republican incumbent based on his opposition to gun control and prevailed in an upset. McCarthy declared Gillibrand’s record on guns intolerable and she pledged to run against the new Senator if no one else did within hours of Paterson’s appointment. In the following months, even as she was courted by Gillibrand, McCarthy reiterated her opposition; a poll even found her leading the primary.

Gillibrand’s critics can get some comfort by telling themselves that, unlike Israel, McCarthy would not have been that threatening a challenger and that she lacked the stature to counter the Democratic establishment: Not only is she not a strong enough fundraiser, but her liberal credentials are muddied by her Republican registration through the mid-1990s and her focus on gun control would probably have not resonated enough to topple an incumbent.

Yet, McCarthy had made herself an insurance policy that the Senator would face at least some challenge and thus face questions as to her political philosophy and policy positions. As such, her exit is a blow to Gillibrand skeptics.

This development confirms the remarkable turn of affairs by which Gillibrand, who just a few weeks ago looked like she might benefit from her opponents’ disunity, now only has one obstacle left, but it is a major one - Rep. Carolyn Maloney. The situation is thus very clear, and there is little gray area:

Either Maloney does not run and and it is hard to see who or what could prevent Gillibrand from winning a full Senate term or Maloney jumps in the race and sets up a battle royale.

(I’ll have much to say about the merits and the prospects of a Maloney candidacy but we’ll wait for her decision to get to that. In the contact of this post, suffice it to say that, if Maloney runs, her prospects of defeating the incumbent will obviously be helped by the fact that the downstate and liberal vote will not be split between her, Israel and McCarthy.)

After getting Steve Israel out of the race, it now looks like the White House is looking to ensure the former scenario comes to pass. The Manhattan congresswoman reportedly received a phone call from Joe Biden this week, though she denied that the vice president tried to push her out. Maloney’s comments contain some encouraging implications for both sides. “You don’t make a decision of that magnitude in a telephone conversation,” she said. That means that she is taking a defiant position - good news for those who want her in - but she is also suggesting that she has not yet finalized her decision, contrary to some reports that say she is sure to run.

On the other hand, Gillibrand should not confuse her rivals’ decision to bow out of the race with a sudden show of support - quite the contrary. McCarthy is expected to support Maloney and Israel is implying he could do as much. “I understand someone can be appointed to the Senate, but that doesn’t mean someone has been anointed to the Senate,” he said, a transparent criticism of the White House pressure to which he was subjected and to which he agreed to comply.