For years, Democrats fought off the perception that they were weak on national security issues. The Obama administration’s Cabinet appointment won’t help Democrats dispel the GOP contention that they can’t lead on national security. First, Obama kept Bush-appointee Robert Gates as the Secretary of Defense and appointed Jim Jones as the National Security Adviser. Today, he tapped Republican Rep. John McHugh to be the new Secretary of the Army, giving the GOP an additional voice inside the Pentagon.
Obama’s most eventful GOP appointment (conservative Senator Judd Gregg to Commerce) concerned a non-defense position, as did Ray LaHood nomination to the Transportation Department - but there is certainly a pattern of placing Republican-leaning figures in national security posts.
In one way, however, McHugh’s appointment comes closer to Obama’s attempt to nominate Gregg than Gates and LaHood because it provides Democrats a golden electoral opportunity: If (when) he is confirmed, McHugh will resign from his House seat, sparking a special election in New York’s 23th district - the second such contest of the year in the Empire State.
The district has not hosted a competitive race for decades, but that is only because McHugh was so entrenched that Democrats had not been able to take advantage of upstate New York’s leftward drift. But an open seat will be difficult for Republicans to defend - and McHugh’s departure should prove a major headache for the NRCC in the months ahead. (It is unclear when the election will be held as the seat will not become vacant until McHugh is confirmed to the Cabinet by the Senate.)
NY-23 is the most Democratic of the 3 (!) seats the GOP has left in New York: Obama won the district 52% to 47%, while George W. Bush prevailed by only 2% in 2000 and 4% in 2004. NY-20, which hosted a special election in March, gave Bush 8% and 7% victories and Obama a 3% edge. The fact that Scott Murphy pulled off an unlikely victory in NY-20 will make Democrats that much more confident at their prospect of picking-up NY-23, a district whose fundamentals look better for the party.
There is another reason that the DCCC starts this contest in a better position than it did the special election sparked by Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate appointment: In NY-20, Democrats had practically no bench to choose from but the have at least one obvious candidate to run in NY-23: State Sen. Darrel Aubertine, first elected in a special election in February 2008.
But there is one big problem: After decades during which they were stuck in the minority, Democrats won the thinnest of majorities in the state Senate (32-30) and they will presumably be reluctant to jeopardize Aubertine’s legislative seat. (Because of New York’s election law, there will be no primary and the parties’ county chairs will get together to pick their side’s candidate. That means that state Democrats are in a position to block Aubertine’s run if they so choose.)
That situation is not the only reason to think the GOP might pull off a successful defense: While upstate New York has abandoned its Republican roots (making the district’s party registration breakdown misleading), George W. Bush’s victory and McCain’s 47% suggests that voters are open to choosing a Republican. If the party’s nominee conducts a better campaign than Jim Tedisco did earlier this year, he could even be in a position of exploiting the fact that Democrats already have full control of Washington.
Thus, much will depend on recruitment and on the quality of the campaigns. If state Democrats force Aubertine to stay in Albany, the party could turn to a lower-profile contender like Scott Murphy, with the DCCC taking care of introducing him to voters. The early list of potential Republican opponents looks longer. It includes state Sen. Joe Griffo, Assemblywoman Diedre Scozzafava, Assemblyman Will Barclay, McHugh Chief of Staff Robert Taub, former state Senators Ray Meier and Jim Wright and businesswoman Kay Stafford.
There is no doubt that McHugh is qualifed for Secretary of the Army considering his position as top Republican on the House armed services commitee but I wonder why he would choose to leave the House now knowing that his district will be a tough hold for Republicans? At least the GOP has the advantage of having a bigger pool of candidates to choose from. For NY Democrats, keeping thier slim majority in the State senate intact is much more important then getting another U.S. house representive, and therefore it is very unlikely Aubertine will be the candidate, despite the fact that would be the Democrats’s strongest candidate by several miles.
I would guess that a election wouldn’t take place until the fall, maybe around the time the VA and NJ governship races are decided. The GOP currently has the upper hand in both of those races, so a loss in NY-23 wouldn’t be as devasting if the the GOP wins one or both of the Gubernentorial races. However it will be very difficult for the House Republicans to spend alot of money on another special election, and it being on defense it isn’t as significant as it would have been if they had won NY-20.
Jaxx, I should have mentioned this in my post but it is very likely that the prospect of upcoming redistricting convinced McHugh that the time had come to find alternative careers. Democrats looked more likely to target NY-03 than NY-23, but McHugh couldn’t be too sure.
Representative McHugh has been horrible for the district. I know, I live in the 23-rd and have for most of my life.
The Republican advantage in the 23rd is significant, but it is a winnable seat if the Democrats run a known quantity in the Western half of the district. State Senator Aubertine, or Assemblywoman Addie Jenne-Russell seem the most obvious choices.
Assemblywoman Russell is a new comer, but a much brighter light than Mr. Aubertine, and more qualified for the position in terms of intellect, she would be the obvious choice to fill Aubertine’s shoes if he won a Congressional bid and moved up, in the soon to follow special election.
Her assembly seat seems like the better bet to risk losing though because it is an even district.
The registration advantage has disappeared in the activist eastern half of the 23rd Congressional District, which is reported to be the largest district east of the Mississippi, with 11 counties. Clinton, Franklin, Hamilton, Oswego, Madison, Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Lewis, part of Oneida, part of Essex, and part of Fulton, and the Republicans have a major advantage with Oswego County.
McHugh will likely leave because redistricting in 2012 would leave him without a seat, Dan Maffei’s district will likely carve out a piece of the 23rd when New York loses at least two congressional seats, as will Mike Arcuri, and Rep. Murphy. Basically, the 23rd is likely to be divided amongst Utica, Albany, and Syracuse based districts in the not too distant future, leaving McHugh with a no win situation in 2012, and leaving Congress, opens up the possibility of LEGALLY becoming a lobyist sooner, rather than later. It’s all about the money.
Aubertine could win the seat, but he is a dim bulb. Russell would be a long shot, but a bright spot in the House. Jim Wright, could be a big monkey in the Wrench if he chooses to leave his recent appointment to a big state job. The former State Senator who left to become a lobbyist then left that job after Will Barclay his handpicked successor didn’t win the special election is the biggest Republican threat. Boss Wright as he is known locally is a powerhouse.
The problem is fundraising. It will take a fortune to run a successful campaign even in a special election, and this is a poor district. The big problem is nobody has a clue how to run a successful web based campaign which is needed in this big of a district, especially for a netroots fundraising effort.
Just 2 cents from someone living in the 23rd.
Something interesting (but unsurprising) I found in tracking the district as far back as I could:
1993- John McHugh (R)
1981-1993 David Martin (R)
1965-1981 Robert McEwen (R)
1940-1965 Clarence Kilburn (R)
1939-1940 Wallace Pierce (R)
1915-1939 Bertrand Snell (R)
1912-1914 Edwin Merritt (R)
1907-1912 George Malby (R)
1903-1907 William Flack (R)
While I wasn’t able to trace the district’s heart back any further, the past century is basically all that is relevent politically (trend-wise), anyway. And a pretty strong trend in a district that likes to keep its Reps for a good time.