Campaign Diaries

Dan Gelber steps out of Democratic primary…

At the Florida Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson fundraiser, state Senator Dan Gelber announced that he would “step back” from the Senate race. “I’m not bowing out. I’d simply say I’m taking a step back for the moment. The terrain has changed dramatically,” he explained.

Whatever Gelber might say, it is hard to envision him coming back after this: He faces too difficult a race to afford taking time off and hope to still be taken seriously if he recommits later on. In the Democratic primary, Kendrick Meek has been accumulating institutional support; in the general election, Charlie Crist looks so formidable that any Democrat will have to prove he has a shot at scoring an upset. This is something Gelber undoubtedly knows, and for him to make such a statement at such a high-profile event certainly suggests that he is set on dropping out.

That would obviously be a huge break for Meek: Not only would it make him the presumptive Democratic nominee (barring an unforeseen development like Rep. Brown’s entry), but it would also help his general election prospects. Meek will need to focus as much of his attention and of his money against Crist, and fighting Gelber all the way to the late August primary would prove an obstacle.

While Gelber did not say what he might do if he drops out, he confirmed that he is looking at running in one of the many open statewide races. This does not come as a surprise: Over the past two weeks, Democrats have been urging Gelber to run for Attorney General. This confirms that the consequences of Crist’s jumping in the Senate race have been far-reaching: The reason Gelber can consider running for AG is that the current office-holder, Bill McCollum, is leaving his seat to run for Governor.

Similarly, Crist’s move to the Senate race might help Democratic leaders clear another primary field - this one in FL-02. Rep. Allen Boyd, one of the most conservative House Democrats, currently faces a dangerous challenge by Al Lawson, the state Senate’s Minority Leader who is term-limited out of his position in 2010. That  means that he is probably most interested in finding himself another job. Until recently, challenging Boyd looked like an easier task than taking on one of the Republican incumbents in statewide races but another option recently opened up when state CFO Alex Sink announced she would leave her office to run for Governor.

Post on Politics reports that Lawson is now considering leaving the House race to run for CFO. If he accepts to switch, as party leaders have been urging him to, it would give Democrats a high-profile entrant in an important race, create an intriguing potential general election match-up since the GOP’s presumptive nominee for CFO is Jeff Atwater, Lawson’s Republican counterpart in the state Senate.

… while Crist is still not guaranteed easy path to GOP nomination

Meek’s brightening primary prospects make Crist’s intra-party troubles all the more striking: Former state Speaker Marco Rubio is showing no sign that he is ready to bow out in his favor. Quite the contrary, he is accumulating major endorsements. For one, Jeb Bush’s two sons announced they backed Rubio, which is sure to spark a year-long discussion into their father’s stance. And on Wednesday, we learned that Mike Huckabee will soon do the same.

Such developments should make the Republican primary far more contested than the Governor cares for: The more high-profile and consequential Rubio’s candidacy appears, the more Crist will be forced to court conservatives and be distracted away from the general election. And that is exactly what is happening right now.

For one, Huckabee’s willingness to buck Crist is a sign that national conservatives are planning on getting involved in this Senate race. Second, it could help transform this race into a preview of upcoming presidential elections and heighten the stakes of this Senate primary: If Rubio becomes viewed as a way for conservatives to stop Crist’s presidential ambitions, he should then have an easier time convincing GOP voters they should take ideology into account. And finally, the involvement of high-profile politicians like Huckabee and Bush is sure to create a media frenzy that would force Crist to focus on the Republican primary whether or not poll numbers justify it.