Campaign Diaries

Senator Chris Dodd’s first TV ad is a clear introduction to what will be the central goal of his re-election campaign - convince usually reliable Democratic voters to still trust him - and what will be his main argument - not only he has not been too cozy with the banking industry, but he has taken a leading role in fighting the abuses of the system.

What better way to do that then getting Barack Obama, a politician whose reformer credentials voters trust, to vouch for yours? Last week, Obama signed an e-mail to the tens of thousands of Connecticut supporters touting Dodd’s role in passing the credit-card bill. “Today — thanks to the extraordinary efforts of your senator, Chris Dodd — I signed a bill that restores a sense of fairness and transparency to the credit card industry,” the e-mail read. “As Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Dodd was the driving force behind this bill.”

At the bill’s signing ceremony, Obama also made sure to praise the Connecticut Senator. “I want to give a special shout out to Chris Dodd, who has been a relentless fighter to get this done,” he said. Those comments are now featured in Dodd’s TV ad, which will air for one week throughout the state:

Expect the credit card bill to feature prominently in Dodd’s re-election campaign, as it is a concrete accomplishment the Senator can point to as a counter to criticism that he has let the financial industry run amok. And expect Dodd to tout other such achievements over the next year - including some bills with which he might have little to do but which Democrats will allow him to run with.

That Democrats control the White House and Congress might prove a liability for the party in the midterms, but it is also Dodd’s best hope to recoup some popularity by the fall of 2010: Democrats control the agenda in Washington, so White House and Senate leaders can make sure Dodd’s name is associated with upcoming reforms in the hope of offsetting the dreadful reputation he has developed over the past year.

(Similar tactics are used in the House, where the leadership often gets vulnerable freshmen to sponsor high-profile legislation junior lawmakers typically don’t get to play with in order to bolster their re-election races.)

The risk of such a strategy is obvious: If Dodd hinges his prospect on voters’ trust in Obama, he will be left with nothing if the president’s approval ratings fall over the next 18 months. Yet, keep in mind that Dodd’s troubles are personal rather than related to his party affiliation - a problem since we are talking about a staunchly blue state who is unlikely to toss a Democrat in favor of a Republican unless the incumbent becomes a source of scandal. What Dodd should thus do is link his fortunes to that of his party by portraying himself as a loyal advocate of Obama’s agenda.

Thus, the most urgent target of Dodd’s campaign will not be voters who are usually torn between parties but the 61% who voted for Obama or even just the 54% who chose John Kerry in 2004 - voters who typically vote Democratic but who have turned against Dodd.

(Needless to say, if Obama’s support should prove important in the general election, it would prove all the more decisive in any primary Dodd might face. I tend to analyze Dodd’s actions in terms of general election dynamics because I find it very improbable that he could face a competitive primary challenge from someone like Merrick Alpert - as recent events and blog coverage seem to confirm.)