Campaign Diaries

Jon Huntsman’s decision to accept Barack Obama’s ambassadorial appointment is being interpreted as just another chapter in the GOP’s ideological war - along with Arlen Specter’s party switch and the looming Senate primaries in Missouri or Florida. Yet, Huntsman is no centrist; portraying him as such misses the point of why his move to China is significant.

In 2004, Huntsman ran for Governor as a conservative alternative to Republican incumbent Olene Smith Walker - and this is Utah’s GOP primary we are talking about. Over the following years, he continued to govern from the right (as is expected from a Utah Governor) but, as has been covered extensively, he attracted national attention by breaking with Republican activists on a few issues. The National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru wrote today:

I’ve now read a few articles and blog posts either lauding the Utah governor as a moderate or denouncing him as same. Huntsman has signed pro-life bills, voucher bills, and tax cuts. Yes, he is open to some kind of civil union for gay couples and wants Republicans to make more of an effort on environmental issues. But if that’s all it takes for a Republican politician to get an image both inside and outside the party as a “moderate” these days, that’s a pretty good thing, isn’t it?

Indeed, what it means to be a “moderate Republican” has changed quite a bit as the GOP’s centrist ranks have been decimated. For one, right-wing politicians like Arlen Specter abruptly found themselves representing the party’s far-left - a position they did not occupy when there was still an abundance on New England Republicans. This drift explains how someone with Huntsman’s conservative politics could have come to be viewed as “moderate.”

Second, the definition of “moderate Republican” has lost some of its substantive significance. Instead of designating a faction of people with a similar (Rockefellerian) ideological approach, it is now used to refer to anyone who dares break with an element of conservative orthodoxy as enunciated by Republican activists and the likes of Rush Limbaugh. (For instance, Mel Martinez’s support for immigration reform gave him a still-lingering reputation as a moderate.)

While it is significant that some Republicans have taken positions that have attracted the ire of party activists, this is obviously not enough to make them moderates. In fact, there is currently little evidence of a large-scale war between moderates and conservatives within the Republican Party - largely because the former group has long lost the battle.

Rather than such a substantive or ideological contrast, the more meaningful distinction should be drawn between what we could call the conciliation faction and the purist faction. The former group wants the GOP to have a broad tent, the latter group insists that the path back to power resides in an all-out confrontational strategy and a return to the party’s ideological roots.

A recent example of purist rhetoric comes from Senator Jim DeMint, who asserted again today at South Carolina’s GOP convention that 30 Senators who stand firm on principles are more desirable than 60 Senators who do not. Also, it is along this opposition that the Texas primary between Kay Bailey Hutchison and Rick Perry should be interpreted - and it is also thus that Huntsman’s recent political moves make the most sense.

The purist camp is moving so far to the right that it is condemning itself to a tough time - not to mention that those who are emerging as this faction’s public leaders (Limbaugh, Sarah Palin) are far from the best P.R. faces.

That said, there is something to be said for the purist positioning; The GOP will not regain its footing before Barack Obama’s approval rating falls enough that voters have gone sour on Democrats and on his economic agenda. When that happens, it is those Republicans who took clear stances against spending, tax policies or the stimulus that will appear to Obama’s skeptics as most able to channel their own political positioning; with time, the President’s toughest critics could come to be viewed as his best opponents.

As a parallel, think back to the 2004 presidential race: John Kerry spent a lot of time having to explain why he had repeatedly given Bush the benefit of the doubt and why he was suddenly opposing policies he had spent years supporting. Kerry should have known that it’s not like a Democrat would have had any chance of beating Bush if Iraq had been going well a year after the war started; as such, he had far less to lose in voting against the war than he believed in October 2002. Similarly, the GOP’s 2012 nominee will have little chance if Obama policies like the stimulus are viewed as having succeeded. So what would be the point of nominating a stimulus supporter like Crist?

Finally, the confusion over the definition of “moderate Republican” is something against which Democrats should guard themselves. In particular, they should be careful not to shower praise on Republicans because it could come back to bite them. For years, John McCain was many Democrats’ favorite Republican; this allowed him to build his maverick reputation that made him look for a long time like the GOP’s strongest general election nominee. Now, the same warning applies for Republicans like Huntsman: By advancing his reputation as a “reasonable” GOPer with “moderate” credentials, Demcorats are bolstering the profile of a man they might have to worry about in 2016.