Campaign Diaries

Within 6 days of Charlie Crist’s move to the Senate race, both parties have the gubernatorial candidates they were wishing for: After Democratic CFO Alex Sink, Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum announced his candidacy this morning.

McCollum is a longtime figure of Florida politics: He represented Central Florida in the House from 1980 to 2000, when he lost a close Senate race to Democrat Ben Nelson. Four years later, McCollum attempted to run for Senate again but this time he lost the Republican nomination to Mel Martinez. Two years later, McCollum finally succeeded in winning a statewide race when he was elected Attorney General.

This career hints at obvious liabilities that Democrats will seek to exploit. McCollum has spent a long time in politics and the establishment is not presently too popular; he is not a fresh enough face; and he has a mediocre record when it comes to statewide elections. This is leading some in the GOP to explicitly question whether McCollum is the best they have to offer.

So why are so many Republicans touting McCollum’s bid? The reason is simple: The Attorney General is the party’s best bet to avoid a divisive primary struggle.

Can Republicans clear the field for McCollum?

Because Florida’s primaries are held in late August, parties have a lot to lose if they let their nominating contests get nasty (as Democrats learned in the 2006 gubernatorial race). The stakes are particularly high for the GOP since Sink appears unlikely to face serious competition for the Democratic nod. Had McCollum passed on the race, there would have been no consensus candidate around which Republicans could have agreed.

Now, McCollum is not guaranteed a clean run to the nomination but he has enough stature that the GOP establishment has quickly coalesced around him. Not only has party chairman Jim Greer has already endorsed the Attorney General, but he will ask the state party’s executive committee to endorse McCollum by this summer.

One prominent Republican is still considering the race, however: Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson has said that he will make up his mind this week. He made it clear that he is not interested in running as McCollum’s running mate. “If I’m going to take that kind of heat,” he said, “I want to own the stove.” He will surely face a lot of pressure over the next few days.

On the other hand, two Republicans are making it clear they will not run. Lieutenant Governor Jeff Kottkamp pulled himself out of the list of potential candidates yesterday when he voiced his support for McCollum’s bid and state Senate president Jeff Atwater will reportedly announce that he is running for CFO tomorrow.

Both parties will use the open AG race to clear their Senate fields

The GOP’s attempt to avoid divisive primaries extends to the Senate race, of course, and some Republicans are hoping that McCollum’s move can help them in that contest: The Orlando Sentinel reports that Republicans are asking Marco Rubio to give up his Senate run (against Charlie Crist) and run for Attorney General instead. If Rubio accepts, that would obviously be a huge boost for Crist’s Senate campaign. (Note that Rubio would not have the primary field to himself: Lieutenant Governor Kottkamp is expected to jump in the AG race within days.)

The same thing is happening on the Democratic side: Now that the Attorney General race is open, state Senator Dan Gelber (who is currently running against Kendrick Meek in the Senate race) might switch elections. That would help Meek in the Senate race but Gelber would still face a contested primary, this time against state Senator David Aronberg.