In a big blow to Democrats, Attorney General Roy Cooper announced that he would not challenge North Carolina Senator Richard Burr. “I don’t want to go to Washington and serve as a U.S. Senator at this time,” Cooper explained. “I am committed to public service and I want to serve here in North Carolina rather than in Washington.”
A freshman Senator with mediocre approval ratings and surprisingly low name recognition, Burr is undoubtedly vulnerable in 2010. Cooper looked to be the strongest candidate Democrats could field. His candidacy would have immediately made North Carolina into a toss-up - and Democrats were even hoping that Cooper would quickly distance Burr and not look back (like Casey in 2006 and Shaheen in 2008). In fact, a number of recent polls found Cooper leading Burr, a remarkable achievement for any challenger to achieve this early in the cycle.
As such, Burr is undoubtedly breathing easier this afternoon and Democrats will need to digest this somewhat unexpected recruitment failure.
Sure, this does not meant that Burr will face an easy re-election race but the DSCC has to find a plan B and the list of potential candidates is not that long. Reps. Brad Miller and Heath Shuler have already ruled a run, former Treasurer Richard Moore has said he is highly unlikely to jump in and former Governor Mike Easley is not expected to consider the race. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre are believed to be mulling a run. Attorney Kenneth Lewis is already running and he has connections in the state’s Democratic establishment, but he has no campaign experience and the DSCC is not likely to rest.
(It’s worth noting that, as far as I have been able to tell, Cooper was less conservative than a number of Democrats on this list, especially Mike McIntyre who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.)
In 2008, Democrats were confronted to a similar situation as all of their most prominent politicians - including Easley, Cooper and a series of House Democrats - passed on the opportunity to challenge Elizabeth Dole. Turned down by first and second-tier politicians, the DSCC had to turn to Kay Hagan, a lower-profile state legislator who now sits in the U.S. Senate. But this precedent should not make Democrats too confident.
For one, Kay Hagan proved a very strong campaigner - much more so than most people had predicted when she first entered the race. Second, Elizabeth Dole revealed herself to be weaker on the trail than expected; while Burr has obvious vulnerabilities, I find it hard to imagine that he would make some of the strategic mistakes that plagued the Dole campaign. Perhaps most importantly, 2010 will not be as favorable to Democrats as last year was and the DSCC cannot hope that a low-profile candidate can ride the blue wave all the way to victory.
Now that Cooper has announced his decision, then, the DSCC should quickly see if there is really no way to recruit Easley, Moore or Marshall in the race.
Update: Other potential candidates I should have mentioned include Rep. Bob Eheridge, Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton (though he was still elected in November), state Rep. Grier Martin and former state Senator Cal Cunningham. A North Carolina friend insists that there is no way Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker runs (though the Raleigh Observer is touting his name) and commenter MSW mentions former Speaker and currently state Senator Dan Blue.
Richard Burr gets safer by the day. I’m gonna predict a less heated race than previously expected.
I’m pretty convinced that Elaine Marshall will not run for the Senate. I have a friend that works for Elaine, and I doubt if she would pursue this position at this point in her career. I would love for her to surprise me, because I would enthusiastically support Elaine.
Mike McIntyre is a bit too conservative for me. He would be a lot like Ben Nelson of Nebraska. McIntyre’s politics are eerily similar to Shuler’s, so he would not be my first selection. I don’t even know if he could defeat Burr.
Mike Easley is being slammed right now in the Tarheel state, so I doubt if he would pursue this seat. His popularity has waned in the last year. I doubt if Moore would jump in, either.
The one candidate that no one mentions is Dan Blue. Dan’s been around in NC for a long time, he’s intelligent, and he’s a moderate. I don’t know if he would pursue this race, but he would make a decent candidate, too.
I’m hoping that someone in the State Legislature will jump into this race. There are other Democratic candidates available, and it only would take a 2nd tier candidate to defeat Burr. Kay Hagan was a 2nd tier candidate, and she defeated Dole, who is definitely more electable than Burr.
Back in 1998, John Edwards was not well known within the state, except for being an attorney. He defeated Faircloth, who is also a lot like Burr. The Dems didn’t think they had much of a shot of defeating Faircloth until the last 2 months of the campaign. Anything can still happen. I would rate this race as “leans retention” at this point.
It is a surprise, but at least Cooper let people know now so other arrangements can be made. Cooper was actually at the White House earlier this week when the Championship winning UNC basketabll team saw the President. I thought that indictaed that he would run, especially as Obama mentioned him by name. Oh well.
Would Democrats trust Dan Blue after that Speaker contest in ‘99?
Personally, I’d be interested in seeing Congressman Brad Miller of the 13th jump into the fold - he’s young and relatively progressive. I know he’s ruled out a run, but he can jump back in - he’s also shown himself to be pretty able in attracting a diverse group of constituents to his fold, and he’d probably do well in the state as a whole…
Easley is an impossiblity. He is currently being investigated for corruption. Brad Miller sounds good to me too- though I could even imagine some lesser knowns winning. Burr seems much easier to beat than Dole. She had name recognition and a certain degree of charm. Burr???? One rarely thinks of him at all.
What happened with the song ‘Talk’ is that it was all going great and then someone said ‘That should be the first single’ and we all just freaked out and scrapped it all. ,