The string of good news recently enjoyed by the NRSC came to a grounding halt this afternoon, as former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge announced he would not run for Arlen Specter’s seat.
Lindsay Graham started floating Ridge’s name soon after Specter switched parties, and John McCain said this morning that he had personally talked to Bush’s former Homeland Security Secretary. But their pleas did not prove enough. “After careful consideration and many conversations with friends and family and the leadership of my party, I have decided not to seek the Republican nomination for Senate,” Ridge said in a statement.
Credits are due to Ridge for not endlessly prolonging the speculation - something too many politicians are known to due (what happened to the decision Mark Kirk promised us by the end of April?) - and his early withdrawal allows the NRSC not to waste time before moving on to recruit other candidates. But that is small consolation since this development deprives Republicans of their strongest bet to take advantage of Specter’s defection.
While Specter’s switch opened the door to Republicans nominating a candidate more electable than Toomey who would have a shot at putting the seat back in GOP hands, it’s not like the NRSC has that long a list of politicians who fit the bill. As I recently outlined, Ridge was exceptionally well positioned. Despite his moderate views on social issues, his stature would have made him the favorite in a Republican primary. He would also have been a strong general election candidate; on Monday, two polls found Ridge narrowly leading Specter.
Thankfully for Republicans, Ridge was not their only option: Rep. Jim Gerlach or Attorney General Tom Corbett could make for spirited challengers. Yet, not only would they be less formidable in a general election, but they would also face a tougher path to the Republican nomination: Toomey has a solid base of supporters, the backing of the influential Club for Growth and the potential to channel anger towards Arlen Specter all the way to the nomination.
Thus, Gerlach lacks Ridge’s stature and it would thus be easier for Toomey to attack him on ideological grounds and warn conservative voters not to take the risk of creating another Specter. (This does not mean that Gerlach should be dismissed: Conservatives do not feel the same hostility towards as him as they do towards Specter, not to mention that the Republican establishment could drag him across the finish line.)
One outstanding question is how Ridge’s move might influence the dynamics of a hypothetical Democratic primary? If Republicans are unable to nominate a strong candidate, the Democratic nominee will be favored to win the general election and discussions of electability would thus be removed from a primary campaign; might that help Specter or hurt him?
While I personally believe that a real Democrat would be a stronger general election candidate than Specter, that is a somewhat counter-intuitive argument and I am not sure voters would ever come to see it that way: Incumbents typically make the strongest candidates, and that is assuredly an argument Specter would want to use in a contested Democrat primary. But if the probable Republican nominee is Toomey, Specter would be deprived of that argument and his enemies could have an easier time convincing liberal voters to dump the Senator and nominate a candidate closer to them.
I admit this discussion is premature: Ridge’s withdrawal is a blow to the GOP, but the party still has other candidates they can turn to. We now await Gerlach’s decision; and his entrance would also constitute a coup for the NRSC.
Taniel mentioned in a prior post of four high quality candidates that could make things interesting in 2010 for those four senate seats. Rdige was one of those and he is out - so the math still says Dems make a net gain (with or without PA).