Campaign Diaries

Last night, Republican Dan Sullivan beat Democrat Eric Croft in the runoff of Anchorage’s mayoral election. In what was generally viewed as a toss-up, Sullivan won a decisive victory: 57% to 43%.

I hear you: This mayoral election might seem too small to matter in the scheme of federal politics, but make no mistake about it: the stakes went well beyond Anchorage. National Democrats were very interested in seeing Croft keep the mayorship in Democratic hands to be in a position to contest other offices down the line.

Not only does the GOP dominate Alaskan politics, but Democrats have a very thin bench of politicians who can run statewide races. This has been obvious over the past few cycles, and it is now having preventing Democrats from harboring hope of challenging Senator Lisa Murkowski, Governor Sarah Palin and even Rep. Don Young in 2010.

But there is one position state Democrats have been able to use to position themselves for higher office: Tony Knowles and Mark Begich, the only two Democrats who have been successful in recent statewide elections, served as Mayor of Anchorage. (Knowles did so in the 1980s, and he went on to win two terms as Governor before losing to Murkowski in 2004 and Palin in 2006. As for Begich, he defeated Senator Ted Stevens last fall after holding the mayorship for six years.)

Anchorage represents 40% of the state’s population, so it is not surprising to see politicians use it as a launching pad. But the point is that this has been the only effective launching pad for Democrats in recent decades.

As such, this runoff election was the Democrats’ big hope for getting a politician in place to who could be competitive in statewide races in upcoming years - perhaps not by 2010, but at least for the 2014 gubernatorial contest or the 2012/2014 House races. With Tony Knowles unlikely to attempt yet another political comeback, Democratic prospects were pinned on Eric Croft.

The situation is in some ways comparable to that of South Dakota: For Democrats to have any hope of keeping Tim Johnson’s seat when he retires, they need to hold on to the state’s at-large House seat for the representative to run for Senate. Tom Dashle and Tim Johnson were both elected to the Senate from the lower chamber, and it is difficult to see how a Democrat could take another path to the Senate.

(In both cases, the stakes are far lower for Republicans: Alaska and South Dakota are Republican-enough states that GOP candidates do not need to have built extensive connections with much of the state’s population to have any chance of scoring a statewide majority.)

On the other hand, the need for Democrats to have an electable candidate in place is far less urgent in Alaska than in South Dakota. The most important task for a party is to defend to the positions it currently holds. While Johnson’s South Dakota seat is likely to be open in 2014, Begich just entered the Senate, he is only 47 and Alaska politicians tend to serve for a very long time. Croft would have been a great hope for Democrats to reclaim the governor’s mansion or go after Murkowski, but his loss is less devastating for the party than would be Herseth Sandlin’s.