For months now, Florida politicians have been waiting for Charlie Crist to make up his mind about his 2010 plans: The Governor is so popular that he would start the race as the clear front-runner, so why would any Republican bother running against him?
These simple calculations were transformed in February: Just like Arlen Specter, Charlie Crist has long had a moderate reputation, but conservatives appeared willing to give them a pass until the stimulus debate erupted on the national stage. Specter’s vote in favor of the bill caused Toomey to reconsider his Senate plans and it looks like Crist’s decision to rally by Obama’s side has had the same impact.
Crist, who is just days away from announcing his own decision, can no longer count on coasting to the Republican nomination: Last night, former state Speaker Marco Rubio jumped in the Senate race and made it clear that he will not bow out if people more “famous” than him enter the contest.
This development significantly alters the dynamics of Florida’s Senate seat. It recently looked like Crist could just walk in the race to scare away all prospective opponents and coast his way to Capitol Hill. Now, he will have to battle a tough primary opponent and maneuver to endear himself to conservatives - a development that should also reassure Democrats that they could still win the seat even if Crist does jump in the race.
There is one simple fact that should worry Republicans: Florida’s primary is held very late. Next year, it will take place on August 24.
The negative impact of contested primaries is often overstated. There is little a party should worry about if its Senate candidate will be decided in a tough-hitting and crowded primary in April or May; but the situation is obviously different in Florida. A late August primary leaves very little time for a candidate to concentrate on the general election, making primary wounds that much more damaging. If Rubio manages to put Crist in a difficult position throughout the summer of 2010, the Governor will suddenly look far less frightening to Democrats.
Make no mistake about it: Rubio might have a lot of work to do to endanger Crist’s hold on the nomination, but he should be taken seriously. Sure, Crist’s polling numbers are now strong enough that he does not look vulnerable, but Rubio will have ample time to introduce himself and channel conservative anger into opposition to Crist. (In 2004, Specter never trailed Toomey in a primary poll and the narrowest survey had him leading outside of the margin of error; he ended up winning by less than 2%). The fact that Florida holds a closed primary should help Rubio. He could also benefit from the support of the powerful Cuban-American constituency.
Perhaps most importantly, Rubio is an ally of former Governor Jeb Bush - so this primary showdown could be a proxy battle between some of the biggest names of the Republican Party, all but ensuring that Rubio will have enough funds to go after Crist. Even if Rubio fails to catch fire and seriously endanger Crist’s hold on the nomination, his candidacy forces the Governor to focus on winning Republican voters until the final weeks of the 2010 cycle.
Particularly worrisome for Crist should be the fact that ideologically divisive primaries have the most potential to create lasting rifts. And Rubio is already doing his best to create a clear ideological contrast. “Some believe the path to security and prosperity is a larger government involvement in our economy,” he said in his candidacy video, “but the majority of us don’t agree with that view. And we deserve a voice in American politics, and that’s why I want to serve in the United States Senate.”
In case there is any doubt that statement refers to Crist, compare it to Rubio’s comments in another web video back in March: “Our new leaders in Washington say the only solution is to implement the single largest permanent expansion of government in American history and they pay for it with money we don’t have,” he said. “Unfortunately, even some Republicans here in Florida have embraced this idea.”
Yesterday, Rubio took a more direct shot at Crist in an interview with The St. Petersburg Times: Asked to comment on Crist’s future in the party after Arlen Specter’s defection, Rubio made it clear that his main campaign argument would be too portray Crist as a Specter-wannabe. “If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat,” he said.
We might no longer have the Specter-Toomey showdown to look forward to, but other states are still set to hold ideologically divisive Republican primaries: Missouri, Arizona and now Florida.
I think Crist will still beat Rubio. Crist is widely popular in Florida, and Rubio just doesn’t have the name recognition as Crist. It would be a battle, and Crist would probably suffer regarding his popularity numbers.
At the same time, Rubio shouldn’t be taken too lightly. There is a strong anti-incumbency feeling in the air. Right now, I think if Rubio was to win the nomination, he would be about even with the Democratic nominee, if not slightly ahead. Too early to tell.
I expect Crist will beat Rubio but even if Rubio wins the nomination he will probably be too conservative to win the senate seat.
The GOP is doing itself no favors by attacking regularly the two GOP senators from Maine - like Rubio did. Do they really want to have both defect and lose the seats forever (it is not like Maine is Oklahoma!)
I don’t know…Rubio seems to be eerily similar to Jeb Bush. I think he’s electable. What might hurt him is a bloody primary battle with Crist. He’s probably not hurting himself for the GOP nomination by bashing Snowe and Collins, but it’s not going to help him in the general election.
Rubio is more than electable in Florida. In general statewide Democrats or those with statewide ambitions are generally moderate. The same isn’t true for Republians, who can be moderate like Crist but also generally conservative like Jeb Bush and still be popular. The strong gerrymandering of both the U.S. house and the state legislature in Florida to favor Republicans weakens Democrats who could be competive: most liberal Democrats are in south Florida, leaving them poorly positioned to win the swing region of central florida, while the Florida gerrymander makes is easy to get Republicans from that region.
I think that Rubio, especially being a Cuban American (one of the more reliable solid GOP blocs) is strongly positioned in a general election. Meek has good fundraising but he represents a liberal district southeast Florida. He is too liberal to take advantage of moderate voters who could be upset over Crist losing a primary, and he would probably start at toss-up at best against Rubio. And if Crist wins then he loses easy.
Rubio will have alot of trouble beating Crist but the late primary gives him plenty of time to slowly but surely weaken Crist numbers. The battle in a primary may not be just ideolgically but regional: pitting the national GOP (Coryn has been strongly pushing for Crist to run in the Senate since Bush declined to run) and the Florida GOP. One issue is that Crist still has popular approval rating among Republicans, and Rubio needs to lower that significantly.
Even though Meek represents a heavily democratic district, he has a reasonably moderate record, and over the years has been criticized for not being more liberal when his district allowed him to be. I think he’s already proven to be a much stronger candidate than anyone expected and can’t be underestimated.
Either way, Rubio’s announcement isn’t great news for John Cornyn. By recruiting Crist the NRSC had hoped that they’d have a sure hold in one of the most expensive states to campaign in. Cornyn may not be able to to divert resources to other races now that Crist faces a competitive primary.
Chris makes a good point. Even if Rubio wins wit will cost a lot of money for the NRSC and this is merely to hold a seat. The Republicans will still make a net loss of seats come Nov 2010 (NH, NC, OH, TX, MO, KT etc all provide pickup opportunities).
Guy- I have to respectfully disagree with your assumption that the GOP will have a net loss at this early stage. While all those seats you mentioned can potentially be flipped, you can’t rule out potential GOP pickups in CT, CO, DE, and IL.
The Dems are also playing defense in NY-Gillibrand. And if the GOP can recruit someone credible against Reid, that race will also heat up. I’m not too worried about Delaware unless Castle jumps in (if he does, this race will be very close).
And I wouldn’t rule out a potentially competitive race in Arkansas. Granted, Its not very likely. But Blanche Lincoln may find herself caught between the DSCC and the general conservitism of her constituents.
John - I am happy to concede that the Dems could easily lose seats but overall will either be zero or a net gain. Fivethirtyeight.com has senate rankings and in the top 10 six are GOP held seats (open or contested) with those six in the top 7 so the odds (as of now) is that the GOP is on the defence more.
Gillibrand will have to work at holding her seat but NY is solidly Democratic and she is a good fund raiser. The main worry for Dems is CT whereas the GOP is NH and MO.
Guy - true enough. 538 seems pretty reliable. To me, these rankings will really depend on divisive primaries. For example, OH becomes a favorable environment for Portman if Fischer and Brunner refuse to back down. Same with MO and Blunt/Steelman.
It’ll be interesting to see rankings once primaries have shaped up and we have a better idea of who’s running in each state.
John,
As I have pointed out before, the situation in Ohio and Missouri is not similar. The primary in Ohio is held early (in March), and there is very little (if anything) Democrats have to worry about from the Fisher-Brunner primary. The same is true (to a lesser degree) in Kentucky.
On the other hand, Missouri holds its primary in mid-August so the situation is the same as in Florida: It could be hard for the winner of Blunt/Steelman to rebound for the general election.
As for Arkansas, it is not that unlikely that it would become a Senate battleground. She has drawn a challenger, with others considering the race, and her poll numbers aren’t particularly solid.