In recent days, there has been some debate in the comments section about the 2010 Senate landscape: Are Democrats still likely to net seats, or are Republicans now poised for gains? While I am weary of supporting the latter argument, I do think that the GOP’s Senate prospects have significantly brightened and that the possibility of Republicans picking-up seats no longer looks far-fetched.
Since the beginning of the year, the GOP’s has improved its positions in a number of races on its defense list - none more so than Kansas (though that was outside of any Republican’s control). And while Nevada has largely fallen off the radar screen, it is starting to look like the NRSC will be able to put a number of Democratic seats in play. A detailed post is in order - as well as updated Senate rankings - but for now, look no further than 4 new polls from 3 states for evidence that Democrats have reason to worry.
Stop the presses: A New Hampshire poll has Sununu in the lead!
The University of New Hampshire has released a new “Granite Poll” - a reputed state survey. Its last poll before the 2008 election had Jeanne Shaheen leading then-Senator John Sununu by 6% - she won by 7% - but the new survey finds reason for Republicans to smile: If he decides to run in the 2010 Senate race, Sununu would start in the lead against Democratic Paul Hodes, 46% to 41%.
This is quite a finding: In the past cycle, more than 50 polls were released of the New Hampshire Senate race; only two had then-Senator John Sununu ahead. (The first was released in December 2007, the second in September 2008; both were clearly outliers that were immediately contradicted by the same pollster’s subsequent poll.) And only three had him at 46% or higher - the level of support he receives in this UNH survey.
Sure, Hodes is no Shaheen - but Sununu is also no longer an incumbent and an ARG poll conducted in late March found Hodes ahead by 6%. In short, these new numbers are undoubtedly encouraging for him, especially when combined with his good favorability rating (47/36). On the other hand, Hodes is also liked by voters who know him (34/22) but he has far lesser name recognition; that also means he has more room to grow.
In short, Sununu has obvious flaws - but it would be a huge relief for the GOP to recruit him: He would keep the race in play and it’s not like Republicans have many other candidates to field. (Interestingly, UNH also tested a match-up between retiring Senator Gregg and Hodes; the incumbent crushes Hodes 52% to 36%.)
Delaware: Castle crushes Biden
Susquehanna Polling and Research has released a poll showing Republican Rep. Mike Castle crushing Beau Biden by a stunning 21%, 55% to 34%; he gets 36% of Democrats and holds Biden at 28% among independents.
An important note of caution: Susquehanna is a Republican firm that has released dubious surveys in the past - and that should certainly lead us to take the magnitude of Castle’s lead with a grain of salt. Yet, the basic result is consistent with what Public Policy Polling found earlier this spring: If he runs for Senate, Castle would start with the lead against Attorney General Beau Biden. (PPP had him ahead by 8%.)
The bad news for the GOP is that they have no one to turn to if Castle declines a run; the bad news for Democrats is that Castle has said it is more likely he runs for Senate than for re-election and there is now no doubt that he would be a formidable opponent for the DSCC.
In a way, it’s strange that we are even doubting that he would be a strong contender. He has served as Governor from 1985 to 1993 and he has been the state’s sole representative since then. On the other hand, it’s worth wondering whether these numbers are partly derived from Biden’s weakness as well; sure, he has built himself a political career of his own but are voters uncomfortable with the blatant nepotism of outgoing Governor Ruth appointing a placeholder for no other reason than to keep the seat available for Biden in 2010?
Pennsylvania: Ridge leads Specter, Specter leads Sestak
Two new surveys were released today confirming what I have been saying for the past week: The odds that the GOP wins the Pennsylvania Senate seat have gone up significantly since Arlen Specter’s party switch. The NRSC can now hope to run a very electable candidate like former Governor Tom Ridge, who leads Specter in both polls:
- Ridge is ahead within the MoE in a Susquehanna Polling and Research poll, 39% to 38%. Against Toomey, Specter leads 42% to 36%.
- Ridge leads Specter 48% to 41% in a Public Opinion Strategies poll; Specter is ahead of Toomey 49% to 40%.
- POS also tested the primaries: Ridge crushes Toomey 60% to 23% and Specter crushes Sestak 57% to 20%.
An important note of caution: Both surveys were released by Republican firms. (In fact, the former was commissioned by a RNC committeeman, the latter by a “pro-business” PAC.) Yet, Quinnipiac’s new poll also found Specter vulnerable (he was up by 3% against Ridge) and also found Ridge very popular among Republicans. The main difference between these surveys and Quinnipiac’s is the Specter-Toomey match-up (Q-Pac had the incumbent leading by 20%).
As for the numbers in the Democratic primary, Sestak has very low name recognition in that POS poll: only 18% of voters statewide have an opinion of him, versus 90% for Specter. That is partly responsible for keeping Sestak’s numbers down; on the other hand, it is certainly a mark of strength for Specter to cross the 50% threshold.
We shall know more when Research 2000 released its poll on Thursday. It will hopefully test Joe Sestak in the general election so we can see how much of Ridge’s leads are due to his strength and how much with the fact that Democratic-leaning voters are not interested in supporting Specter. For now, the one-sentence lesson out of these Pennsylvania polls is that Ridge would be a very strong candidate for the GOP and Specter a disaster for Democrats.
Excellent analysis as always.
About what you said about Republican chances for holding PA’s senate state, I wonder if that was Specter’s plan the whole time. He knew that he would probably lose the primary but Toomey would lose the general election, causing an at least somewhat liberal Democrat to gain the seat. But because Specter changed parties either he will keep the seat or an electable Republican like Ridge will get the seat. In fact, if Sestak were to win the primary, I wouldn’t be surprised if Specter endorsed Ridge, as they were good friends for many years.
It’s would be quite a comeback for the GOP to gain seats in blue states–but that’s where the Democrats are most vulnerable in 2010.
Candidate quality matters, and seats with appointed senators are most likely to flip. Even a party who should be still down next year
can win with good candidates. That’s why vacancies should be filled by special elections, despite their cost.
And I do think Specter wants to make sure his seat “stays” Republican.
Joe and mikeel,
It seems clear that Specter doesn’t see himself as having much of an issue-based tie with Democrats, but your theory that he orchestrated this entire switch to keep the seat in GOP hands is pretty far-fetched. Stranger things have happened but I don’t follow: Specter seems to driven by his re-election and he has shown little sign of caring enough about the Republican Party to want to pull this off. However, it is very plausible to imagine Specter endorsing Ridge if he loses the primary to Sestak.
Taniel - great analysis in as far as it goes. You have not covered FL, NC, OH, KT and MO which are all potential Dem pickups (and I haven`t even touched on GA or TX which are slight possibles) so the Dems have many more shots on goal than the Republicans. Delaware, CT and Colorado are the worries for Dems. In Florida even if the Dem candidate loses and the winner is Crist we end up with a more moderate senator in the mold of a Snowe or Collins. That would be an improvement over Martinez.
So overall I still think the Dems will make a net gain, but if the worst that happens is that the Dems stay at 60 - I will take that. Bush never had anywhere near 60. In 2012 Obama is likely to win big again (especially if Palin or Jindal are the nominees) and his coattails will help first term incumbents like Webb in VA who could face a hard race. Thereby keeping a significant majority to 2014 at least. Things look good.
Also I would mention about Specter that he has to prove himself and if by the end of the year he hasn`t significantly “improved” his voting record - ie votes against healthcare reform. Then he will be challenged and could easily lose.
If the GOP do gain seats in blue states like CT and DE then they will have to be moderates or there will be one termers. Therefore the damage is not that great, especailly if you are still at 60. It actually gives you pickup opportunities in the future at 2016. Which would then counteract loses in that year.
I think it is way to early to have a real feel for how these races will look in November 2010. In Pa. Ridge is pro-choice and the conservatives will go after him in the primary just like Specter. In Delaware Castle is better known than young Biden. Also Castle is already 69 and his health has not been great. My bet is that Ridge, Sununu and Castle will not run for senator.