Campaign Diaries

On Thursday, I was so perplexed by the news that Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson was forming an exploratory committee for the 2010 Senate race that I neglected to even mention it on this blog. But with time comes perspective, and the time has come to ask a simple question: Did the NRSC finally manage to out-maneuver Jim Bunning?

Until last week, Grayson had said that he would not run unless the incumbent retired but Bunning was insisting that retirement wasn’t even on his mind. Thus, the news that he was forming an exploratory committee led to an obvious question: Was Grayson breaking his word or had Bunning told him that he would not seek re-election?

Within hours, press outlets cited numerous Republican sources to report that Bunning had given Grayson his blessing and had thus settled on retiring. Of course, these sources were all anonymous. Here is, for instance, Politico’s account:

Kentucky GOP operatives say [Grayson's move is] a precursor to Bunning’s retirement… “He told Trey to do this,” one senior congressional official said of Bunning. “Why else would he tell his main rival to prepare for a run?”

One Kentucky Republican operative said that the seeds of Bunning’s decision were planted at a public event back in Kentucky that both Grayson and Bunning attended several weeks ago. Bunning sensed that Grayson was getting anxious waiting for him to decide whether to run for re-election, so he told Grayson that he should just form an exploratory committee.

Yet, that same article goes on to quote Bunning:

Asked to comment outside the Senate chamber Thursday, Bunning said: “I won’t talk to you.”

And Bunning spokesman Mike Reynard insisted Thursday that Bunning currently has no plans to retire. “Senator Bunning has every intention of running,” said Reynard.

On Friday, Grayson back Thursday’s reports. “Jim Bunning suggested I form an exploratory committee several weeks ago,” he said. Still no confirmation from Bunning or from his office.

Apparently, we are to believe that the unpredictable Senator suddenly became so readable that his exact intentions were known by countless GOP operatives - all of whom knew for sure that everything Bunning and his office have been saying publicly since December (including threatening to sue the NRSC if they do not back his re-election bid) has been a lie.

What makes these operatives credible is that their analysis seems obvious: Why else would Grayson form an exploratory committee than because Bunning told him to? And why else would Bunning tell him to do so ifhe was not planning on retiring?

All of that is plausible, of course. But it is as plausible that the GOP establishment is seeking to corner a stubborn Bunning into such an untenable situation that he will have no choice but to bow out of the race.

For months, Bunning has been repeating that he will run for re-election. At first, no one took him at his words, and that’s just how the NRSC liked it. These retirement chronicles had a destabilizing effect on Bunning, his morale and his fundraising numbers. Last month, I described the NRSC’s asphyxiation strategy as such: “By continually sending off such messages, the GOP establishment is trying to harass Bunning into retirement; they are looking to exhaust him with constant underhanded insults so that the Senator finally gives up the fight.”

Yet, somewhere around the time Bunning blasted John Cornyn and threatened to sue the NRSC, people started to take the Senator seriously - opening a window for him to rebound and attract support. That window is now closed.

Whether or not Bunning actually gave Grayson his blessing, the press is now reporting that the Senator is poised to retire, about to leave the race, on the verge of calling it quits. Everything Bunning worked to build over the past few months evaporated in an afternoon based on quotes by a few anonymous GOP operatives.

In short, spreading word that Bunning is ready to bow out is the surest way to push him towards retirement. The conventional wisdom once again holds that Bunning will retire - and that should have a devastating effect on the Senator’s ability to build a credible campaign infrastructure.

Credits for The Courier Journal’s James Carroll for summarizing the situation very well in his piece “Die may be cast for Grayson’s Senate run:”

If the casual observer of Kentucky and Washington politics is confused about what the heck Bunning is up to now, don’t be.

It almost doesn’t matter, because the die is now cast.

Grayson insists he will not run if Bunning continues to seek a third term, but that is simply good political manners. The indisputable fact is that Grayson is now going to be asking Kentucky Republicans for money.

Grayson either is going to be competing directly with Bunning for cash (if the senator really is staying in the race) or simply taking over the fundraising field (if Bunning is planning to step away).

Indeed. We might never know what happened in Kentucky over the past month, nor what came down between Bunning, McConnell, Grayson and the NRSC. But it does seem hard to imagine Bunning able to mount a credible enough campaign to carry it through. Not only has McConnell signaled to GOP donors that he would rather they not contribute to Bunning’s campaign, there now is a Republican candidate - one who is ostensibly Bunning’s friend - that said donors can donate to.

When it comes to his re-election race, it looks like Bunning becomes a visionary. Here is the lament he voiced last month:

When they recruit someone to run against you in a primary, it puts doubt in people’s minds that you are going to finish the race. Therefore, they’re waiting and waiting and waiting. It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.

He saw it coming, but he is proving unable to stop it. Maybe he should switch over to the Democratic Party.