Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166
2009 May Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for May, 2009


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Weekly update, 19th edition: In some races, pressure to find candidate mounts

All in all, this has not been the craziest of weeks in terms of electoral news and I realize that I once again devoted a lot of attention to Florida politics. The aftermath of Charlie Crist’s switcheroo is still playing out - yesterday, state Senator Dan Gelber became the latest politician to run away from the Senate race - while new names like Rep. Corrine Brown and state Senator Paula Dockery are popping up as statewide candidates.

But other states also saw some important action, starting with Arkansas: Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin somewhat unexpectedly announced he would not challenge Blanche Lincoln. Elsewhere, prominent Michigan and Alabama politicians who were widely expected to run for Governor officially joined the race, while Illinois and Nevada Republicans continued their increasingly desperate search for Senate candidates. As for Pennsylvania, I will not list Joe Sestak as a declared candidate; as I explained a few days ago, his recent comments were in no way an official candidacy statement, nor did they commit him to the race.

Finally, we got some developments on the retirement front. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a potential presidential candidate who had said he would announce whether he is running for a third-term by the end of the month, delayed his decision until later in the summer while soon-to-be Utah Governor Gary Herbert confirmed that he intends to run for his first full term next year. And we shall be getting a major announcement tomorrow, as Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn indicated he will announce his 2010 plans on June 1st. (The most likely scenario is that he runs for re-election, but it is very much possible that he retires or runs for Governor.)

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation.

First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one.
Will not retire soon-to-be Utah Governor Gary Herbert
Added to list of potential retirees Rep. Corrine Brown (D, FL-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin ruled out run
AZ-Sen, Dem former city councilman Rodolfo “Rudy” Garcia is running
former party chairman Jim Pederson will not run
FL-Sen, Dem Rep. Corrine Brown added to list (expressed interest)
state Senator Dan Gelber dropped out
IL-Sen, GOP retired Judge Donald Lowery added to list
former HUD Secretary Steve Preston added to list
NV-Sen, GOP state Sen. Mark Amodei added to list
PA-Sen, Dems Rep. Joe Sestak took additional steps but stopped short of declaring run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AL-Gov, GOP former state Senator Bradley Byrne announced run
state Treasurer Kay Ivey announced run
AZ-Gov, Dems state Rep. David Bradley added to list (expressed interest)
FL-Gov, GOP state Sen. Paula Dockery added to list (expressed interest)
MI-Gov, GOP Attorney General Mike Cox announced run
RI-Gov, Dems Attorney General Patrick Lynch all but officially declared
UT-Gov, GOP soon-to-be Governor Gary Herbert confirmed he will run
Kirk Jowers added to list
businessman Fred Lampropoulos added to list

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While Meek’s primary prospects brighten, Crist’s road to nomination gets trickier

Dan Gelber steps out of Democratic primary…

At the Florida Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson fundraiser, state Senator Dan Gelber announced that he would “step back” from the Senate race. “I’m not bowing out. I’d simply say I’m taking a step back for the moment. The terrain has changed dramatically,” he explained.

Whatever Gelber might say, it is hard to envision him coming back after this: He faces too difficult a race to afford taking time off and hope to still be taken seriously if he recommits later on. In the Democratic primary, Kendrick Meek has been accumulating institutional support; in the general election, Charlie Crist looks so formidable that any Democrat will have to prove he has a shot at scoring an upset. This is something Gelber undoubtedly knows, and for him to make such a statement at such a high-profile event certainly suggests that he is set on dropping out.

That would obviously be a huge break for Meek: Not only would it make him the presumptive Democratic nominee (barring an unforeseen development like Rep. Brown’s entry), but it would also help his general election prospects. Meek will need to focus as much of his attention and of his money against Crist, and fighting Gelber all the way to the late August primary would prove an obstacle.

While Gelber did not say what he might do if he drops out, he confirmed that he is looking at running in one of the many open statewide races. This does not come as a surprise: Over the past two weeks, Democrats have been urging Gelber to run for Attorney General. This confirms that the consequences of Crist’s jumping in the Senate race have been far-reaching: The reason Gelber can consider running for AG is that the current office-holder, Bill McCollum, is leaving his seat to run for Governor.

Similarly, Crist’s move to the Senate race might help Democratic leaders clear another primary field - this one in FL-02. Rep. Allen Boyd, one of the most conservative House Democrats, currently faces a dangerous challenge by Al Lawson, the state Senate’s Minority Leader who is term-limited out of his position in 2010. That  means that he is probably most interested in finding himself another job. Until recently, challenging Boyd looked like an easier task than taking on one of the Republican incumbents in statewide races but another option recently opened up when state CFO Alex Sink announced she would leave her office to run for Governor.

Post on Politics reports that Lawson is now considering leaving the House race to run for CFO. If he accepts to switch, as party leaders have been urging him to, it would give Democrats a high-profile entrant in an important race, create an intriguing potential general election match-up since the GOP’s presumptive nominee for CFO is Jeff Atwater, Lawson’s Republican counterpart in the state Senate.

… while Crist is still not guaranteed easy path to GOP nomination

Meek’s brightening primary prospects make Crist’s intra-party troubles all the more striking: Former state Speaker Marco Rubio is showing no sign that he is ready to bow out in his favor. Quite the contrary, he is accumulating major endorsements. For one, Jeb Bush’s two sons announced they backed Rubio, which is sure to spark a year-long discussion into their father’s stance. And on Wednesday, we learned that Mike Huckabee will soon do the same.

Such developments should make the Republican primary far more contested than the Governor cares for: The more high-profile and consequential Rubio’s candidacy appears, the more Crist will be forced to court conservatives and be distracted away from the general election. And that is exactly what is happening right now.

For one, Huckabee’s willingness to buck Crist is a sign that national conservatives are planning on getting involved in this Senate race. Second, it could help transform this race into a preview of upcoming presidential elections and heighten the stakes of this Senate primary: If Rubio becomes viewed as a way for conservatives to stop Crist’s presidential ambitions, he should then have an easier time convincing GOP voters they should take ideology into account. And finally, the involvement of high-profile politicians like Huckabee and Bush is sure to create a media frenzy that would force Crist to focus on the Republican primary whether or not poll numbers justify it.


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In Florida and Nevada, new names pop up in statewide races

My (very fun) trip has ended and I can get back to blogging at a normal pace. There is certainly a lot of stories I have neglected over the past six days, so let’s start by reviewing four new names that have popped up as potential statewide candidates.

Florida: Corrine Brown opens door to Senate run

For a long time, it looked like Charlie Crist’s entry in the gubernatorial race had scared away all potential contenders on both sides of the aisle. Sure, those who were already in the running might stay in but all other ambitious politicians would either stay put or change their interest to the Governor’s mansion. On the Democratic side, these dynamics confirmed Kendrick Meek as the primary front-runner with Dan Gelber in a credible position.

Well, at least one other Democrat opened the door to joining the fun this week: Rep. Corinne Brown suggested she might seek the Democratic nomination. She touted her “experience” relative to Meek and she also went after Crist. “I just think the state needs more than someone who’s there to talk a great game, smile and take pictures,” she said.

A left-leaning representative who has served in the House since 1993 and who called the 2000 presidential election a coup d’état on the floor of the Senate, Brown was not mentioned as a potential candidate and had shown no sign of considering a Senate run, making her comments a somewhat unexpected development in the Democratic primary.

If she does run, it would set up a competitive primary between two prominent African-American lawmakers - a situation that is rare enough no parallel comes to mind. In fact, it’s hard to envision that a white candidate would not try to take advantage of the primary’s racial dynamics to eke out a victory: Given how much institutional support Meek is assembling, it might be hard for Gelber to win a two-race race - but the situation would change if Brown is also in the running.

Florida: Just when we thought McCollum had cleared the race

It was almost too good to be true for Bill McCollum: After an unbelievably long list of prominent Republicans declined to run for the open gubernatorial race, Florida’s Attorney General looked like he would have the GOP field for himself, coasting to his party’s nomination six years after he lost a bruising senatorial primary.

But it looks like McCollum might have some primary competition after all: Yesterday, state Senator Paula Dockery released a statement indicating her interest in the gubernatorial race. This opens the door to an all-female general election since Democrats look set to nominate a woman. (Note: Florida has never had a female Governor.)

While Dockery has a lower profile than McCollum, she would have a legitimate shot at the nomination. Having served in the state legislature since 1997 (in the House until 2002, in the Senate since then), she has the experience and connections to be taken seriously. In fact, she has been a major player in Tallahassee. Over the past few month, she emerged as a key opponent to a commuter rail plan in Central Florida pushed by Republican leaders and Governor Crist. She was ultimately successful in defeating the CSX-SunRail deal, a blow to the GOP leadership that got Dockery noticed.

Also helping Dockery should be the perception among some Republicans that McCollum’s insider profile and past statewide defeats mean he would not make that strong a candidate. Whether one thinks McCollum is formidable or unelectable should determine whether one believes Dockery’s entry would be good news for the GOP. Another consideration, of course, is that a competitive Republican primary could give Democrat Alex Sink a head start to prepare the general election since Florida’s primaries are held late.

Nevada: Another Republican interested in challenging Reid

The NRSC is growing increasingly desperate in Nevada. The only prominent Republican still considered a potential candidate against Harry Reid is Rep. Dan Heller, who is believed to be eying the gubernatorial race instead. Who should the GOP turn to? In early April, former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle signaled her interest in the race; later, we learned that Republicans were courting a New York banker.

But the GOP’s best bet yet might be state Senator Mark Amodei, who has served in the state legislature since 1997: This is not a name we had heard until now, but Amodei recently revealed his ambitions: “If Dean doesn’t, I’ll consider it,” he said, referring to Dan Heller. This is what we expect from him: Amodei has too low a profile to fight Heller or Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki if either wants the Republican nomination; yet, he is experienced enough in a chamber with only 21 members to hope to mount a competitive run.

The problem for Republicans is that their hope of challenging Reid are evaporating with every week they pass without a prominent challenger. As Democrats discovered in 2008, defeating a (necessarily well-funded) Senate leader is no small feat: a campaign needs to be thought out months in advance, a challenger needs to be impecably prepared and lots of funds need to be raised. All of this cannot be improvised at the last minute. If second-tier Republicans like Amodei are saying they will wait for Heller to announce his decision and for the Krolicki indictement to resolve itself, who knows when they will make up their own mind - all of this while Reid continues to stockpile millions?


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Dodd’s first TV ad offers preview of his 2010 strategy

Senator Chris Dodd’s first TV ad is a clear introduction to what will be the central goal of his re-election campaign - convince usually reliable Democratic voters to still trust him - and what will be his main argument - not only he has not been too cozy with the banking industry, but he has taken a leading role in fighting the abuses of the system.

What better way to do that then getting Barack Obama, a politician whose reformer credentials voters trust, to vouch for yours? Last week, Obama signed an e-mail to the tens of thousands of Connecticut supporters touting Dodd’s role in passing the credit-card bill. “Today — thanks to the extraordinary efforts of your senator, Chris Dodd — I signed a bill that restores a sense of fairness and transparency to the credit card industry,” the e-mail read. “As Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Senator Dodd was the driving force behind this bill.”

At the bill’s signing ceremony, Obama also made sure to praise the Connecticut Senator. “I want to give a special shout out to Chris Dodd, who has been a relentless fighter to get this done,” he said. Those comments are now featured in Dodd’s TV ad, which will air for one week throughout the state:

Expect the credit card bill to feature prominently in Dodd’s re-election campaign, as it is a concrete accomplishment the Senator can point to as a counter to criticism that he has let the financial industry run amok. And expect Dodd to tout other such achievements over the next year - including some bills with which he might have little to do but which Democrats will allow him to run with.

That Democrats control the White House and Congress might prove a liability for the party in the midterms, but it is also Dodd’s best hope to recoup some popularity by the fall of 2010: Democrats control the agenda in Washington, so White House and Senate leaders can make sure Dodd’s name is associated with upcoming reforms in the hope of offsetting the dreadful reputation he has developed over the past year.

(Similar tactics are used in the House, where the leadership often gets vulnerable freshmen to sponsor high-profile legislation junior lawmakers typically don’t get to play with in order to bolster their re-election races.)

The risk of such a strategy is obvious: If Dodd hinges his prospect on voters’ trust in Obama, he will be left with nothing if the president’s approval ratings fall over the next 18 months. Yet, keep in mind that Dodd’s troubles are personal rather than related to his party affiliation - a problem since we are talking about a staunchly blue state who is unlikely to toss a Democrat in favor of a Republican unless the incumbent becomes a source of scandal. What Dodd should thus do is link his fortunes to that of his party by portraying himself as a loyal advocate of Obama’s agenda.

Thus, the most urgent target of Dodd’s campaign will not be voters who are usually torn between parties but the 61% who voted for Obama or even just the 54% who chose John Kerry in 2004 - voters who typically vote Democratic but who have turned against Dodd.

(Needless to say, if Obama’s support should prove important in the general election, it would prove all the more decisive in any primary Dodd might face. I tend to analyze Dodd’s actions in terms of general election dynamics because I find it very improbable that he could face a competitive primary challenge from someone like Merrick Alpert - as recent events and blog coverage seem to confirm.)


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Governor: Cox enters Michigan race, Alabama field gets crowded

It is striking that the Republican fields in a number of open gubernatorial races is as chaotic as it gets. In Georgia, five credible candidates (including one U.S. representative and two statewide officials) are already running; in South Carolina, a U.S. representative and two state lawmakers are in the race and two statewide officers are expected to join the fun. The situation is getting similar in two other states.

Michigan’s race is wide open

Attorney General Mike Cox was long expected to jump in the gubernatorial race and he finally did so earlier this week. “I will be a governor who is willing to make the tough decisions to help grow Michigan’s economy,” he said in his statement, predictably focusing on the issue that will should help Michigan Republicans the most next year: Democrats have controlled Lansing for much of the past decade and the GOP hopes voters will want to change the state’s leadership.

Before getting a chance to make such an argument in the general election, Cox will have to survive a Republican primary: Rep. Peter Hoekstra is also running, and many other Republicans are considering doing so as well: Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon, Rep. Candice Miller and Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land are said to be mulling a run.

But Cox got a major break a few weeks ago when one of the most formidable potential Republican opponents (Oakland County executive L. Brooks Patterson, a well-known politician who led one of the state’s most populous counties since 1992) ruled out a run. Like Patterson, Cox is from the Detroit suburbs so this could help the Attorney General solidify his support in his geographical base; by contrast, Hoekstra is from Western Michigan - as is Lynn Land, who is also mulling a run. All of this could put Cox at an advantage.

In good timing, EPIC-MRA tested the gubernatorial race:

  • In the Republican primary, Hoekstra receives 27%, Cox 26% and Lynn Land 19%.
  • In the Democratic primary, Senator Debbie Stabenow leads Lieutenant Governor John Cherry 49% to 14%. Speaker Andy Dillon and Flint Mayor Williamson, who are both mentioned as potential candidates, only get 1%. (It’s unclear why the pollster decided to include Stabenow in the poll as I have never heard her mentioned as a gubernatorial contender; my guess is that Cherry is so favored to be the Democratic nominee that they decided they might as well test another match-up.)
  • In the general election, the three match-ups tested found margins within the margin of error: Cherry leads Hoekstra 36% to 33%; leads Cox 36% to 35%. He is behind Lynn Land 35% to 34%. (Stabenow leads by 8% to 9%).

In short, this race is wide open, both in the Republican primary and in the general election. And I would not rule out the possibility of a competitive Democratic primary: once Stabenow is removed from the equation, maybe Democrats other than her and Cherry can show some sign of life.

Alabama: The first major GOP entrants

For months now, Democrats have had their Alabama field set: Rep. Artur Davis and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks have announced their candidacy, while Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom has said he is not running. On the GOP side, however, we had only gotten Republicans to say they would not jump in: Rep. Jo Bonner and Attorney General Troy King both chose to run for re-election instead.

Well, the GOP finally got a prominent candidate - two of them, actually. Kay Ivey, the state Treasurer since 2003 and a former Democrat (in the 1980s), jumped in the race this week, as did former state Senator and junior college Chancellor Bradley Byrne.

Both have a fairly right-wing profile, though neither looks like a movement conservative. During the 2008 presidential campaign, Ivey put out a “Call for Conservatives,” asking voters to back Mitt Romney over John McCain but she also looks like she will be more moderate than other contenders. As for Byrne, The Press-Register’s calling him a moderate might not indicate that he is actually at the political center but it certainly suggests that he is not as far to the right as some factions of the state GOP.  That could leave the door open for someone like former Justice Roy Moore to attempt a political comeback.

(Interestingly, the most likely additional Republican candidate is Secretary of State Beth Chapman, making it somewhat likely that the Republican nominee will be a woman. Alabama has only had one female Governor: Lurleen Wallace, the wife of George Wallace, who only served for about 18 months.)

Democrats have a primary of their own to worry about, the prospect of a nasty Republican fight should not give them an opening even though the Davis-Sparks showdown could be taken care of a month earlier. (A two-way fight means that one candidate is likely to cross 50% in the first round held in June, while the resolution of the more crowded Republican race could be delayed until the July runoff.)


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About Sestak’s recent comments

As I wrote on Sunday, I am traveling this week and thus cutting down on my blogging pace. Rep. Joe Sestak’s recent comments about the Pennsylvania Senate race did not look important enough to write about, but so much is being made about his statement that it seems necessary to jump into the story.

At first, I thought Sestak’s comments were not that newsworthy because he did not announce a run but only signaled that he intends to run - a distinction that is all the more major because of the pressure he is now likely to receive. Yet, there are a number of reasons to think Sestak will follow through.

Parsing Sestak’s decision-making

TPM launched the frenzy first by reporting that a Sestak contributor received a handwritten note asking for donations. “I am writing you as especially dear supporters to let you know I intend to run for the U.S. Senate,” the note said. “My candidacy’s credibility will have much to do with my fundraising success by the 30 June FEC filing deadline.” A few hours later, Sestak appeared on CNN. “There’s too much doubt in my mind not to have the intent right now to get in this race pending just a little time with my family to make sure we’re all together,” he said.

In normal circumstances, a politician’s willingness to issue such a statement would be enough to be label him as an all-but-declared candidate. But these certainly not normal circumstances: Sestak is considering mounting a primary challenge to a powerful Senator that has the full support of his (new) party’s establishment.

We already saw what such a situation leads to in NY, when a few threatening phone calls to Rep. Steve Israel were enough to persuade him not to challenge Senator Gillibrand. The same dynamic has been taking place in Pennsylvania: Joe Biden and Ed Rendell have worked to shield Specter from a primary challenge while Barack Obama, after offering the Senator his full support, is set to help him fundraise. The Democratic establishment has already succeeded in pushing Joe Torsella out of the race and DSCC Chairman Bob Menendez has reportedly been calling Sestak.

If the pressure was enough to get Israel and Torsella to drop their (quite advanced) Senate plans, why should we take as definite Sestak’s statement that he “intends” to jump in the race, probably, in a few weeks, after having had more conversations?

If anything, Sestak’s comments are perfectly calibrated to express the fact that he is not sure: By taking such an obvious step towards a candidacy but leaving himself a clear way out, he can start to raise money without opening himself to too much criticism if he announces in early July that he will stay in the House (and presumably keep the money he has raised).

All of this said, I can think of three major reasons that Sestak will follow through.

First, he has explicitly said that he will not bow to White House pressure even if Obama calls him personally; sure, that does not necessarily mean anything- but I don’t think Israel made such comments. Also, it looks like Sestak’s anger that the establishment is rallying around Specter has been an important motivation for his decision to run.

Second, I am skeptical that Sestak might only be pretending to scare Specter into moving leftward: Sestak has never looked particularly liberal, so I am not sure why he would suddenly be so committed to promoting left-wing politics as to go through such an act.

Third, Sestak is not ambitious in the same way as Israel (or Carolyn Maloney, for that matter). A Vice Admiral in the Navy, Sestak first held office after he was elected to the House in 2006, at 54 years old; while he probably does not want to needlessly ruin his career, his approach to politics cannot be the same as that of Israel, a former congressional aide who moved to the House at 42 and has clearly had more ambitions. Israel is thus bound to react more strongly to threats of antagonizing the establishment than Sestak.

A new Quinnipiac poll

I will analyze the consequences of Sestak’s candidacy (not only in the Senate primary but also at the House level, where this would leave a potentially competitive open seat) when he makes a definite announcement. For now, let’s take a look at Quinnipiac’s new poll of the race:

  • Specter’s favorability rating (46% to 39%) and his approval rating (51% to 39%) are good, though the latter has dropped since early Mary (56-39). Also, only 42% of respondents say the Senator deserves to be re-elected (versus 43%); that’s down from 49%.
  • Yet, Specter is popular among Democrats, 74% of whom approve of his performance. But that is down from 81% in early May. In a primary match-up, Specter crushes Sestak 50% to 21%. (In the GOP primary, Pat Toomey leads the more moderate Jim Gerlach 38% to 10%.)
  • In the general election, Specter leads Toomey 46% to 37% (compared to a 20% lead last month); against Gerlach he is ahead 45% to 37%. Sestak leads Toomey 37% to 35% and Gerlach 36% to 30%.

Does this mean Sestak should run away from the Senate race? No, all it means is that Specter has a far better chance of winning the Democratic primary than he did of surviving the Republican one - and that’s the exact reason he switched parties.

Yet, if Sestak runs, Specter will have to survive months of attacks on his support for President Bush and dozens of conservative voters. His popularity is bound to fall from the heights of enthusiasm Democrats had reached earlier this month (the net rating has already dropped by 13%). Furthermore, Sestak is largely unknown among respondents: 70% of Democrats say they have never heard of him. Once he raises his profile (and he certainly has the money to do so), he could also improve his numbers.

As for the Republican candidates, it is obviously remarkable that Toomey - who is so often portrayed as an unelectable extremist - is doing as well if not better than Gerlach. Sure, part of this is due to name recognition (61% have no opinion of Toomey, 79% of Gerlach) but we should not dismiss Toomey’s prospects so easily.


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NRCC goes after Kratovil and red-district Democrats, loses a challenger in North Carolina

Earlier this year, the NRCC launched a massive attack against 33 Democratic representatives; but only one incumbent found himself targeted by a TV ad: Zach Space (OH-18). A few months have passed and the Republican committee is using the same strategy.

In a new wave of attacks that targets 17 Democrats, TV ads will be aired in only one district: MD-01, held by Frank Kratovil. Additionally, radio ads will air against six Democrats: Vic Snyder (AR-02), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Harry Teague (NM-02), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Tom Perriello (VA-05).

What do all these Democrats have in common? They all represent conservative-leaning territory: John McCain won all but VA-02, a district in which Obama received 2% but where George W. Bush prevailed by 16% in 2004. In 2010, Republicans are hoping that these district’s conservative nature will reassert itself since the environment is unlikely to be as favorable to Democrats as it was over the past two cycles and they are thus looking to soften these incumbent’s image by blasting them as partisan Democrats and as liberals.

And the GOP has long decided how it will do that: Use Nancy Pelosi as a boogeywoman. The NRCC’s previous wave of ad attacked Blue Dog Democrats on spending matters. “Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit,” said the ad that aired in OH-18. “And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Now, the NRCC is focusing on Pelosi’s recent back-and-forth with the CIA. “Lying to Congress would be a crime, so why won’t Pelosi investigate the “crime”?,” asks the ad that will air in Maryland’s 1st District. “Frank Kratovil sided with Pelosi to block an investigation. Frank Kratovil, voting with Nancy Pelosi 89% of the time.”

Contrary to what the GOP seems to think, it has not gained the upper-hand on this issue: Polls suggest that the CIA’s reputation is damaged enough that the public did not automatically dismiss Pelosi’s claims. Yet, what might not be a winning argument for the NRCC in most parts of the country could very well be a successful one in red districts like MD-01: Pelosi is very unpopular among Republicans and conservative-leaning voters (a constituency among which these 7 Democrats need to do well) were likely appalled by the Speaker’s contention that the CIA lied.

Democrats who have represented very hostile districts for decades (think Rep. Taylor of Mississippi) have had the time to convince their Republican constituents that they are not automatic votes in favor of the leadership of their party. As such, they have become very difficult to dislodge. But Kratovil, Kosmas, Teague, Nye and Perriello are all freshman and sit in red-leaning districts: the NRCC thus believes it can turn conservative-leaning voters against them, which explains why they are all being targeted.

Herseth Sandlin has easily won her 3 re-election races so her situation is different, but there is some buzz about her facing her first serious challenger - not to mention that she is mulling a gubernatorial run so the NRCC might be looking to pressure into leaving the House. As for Vic Snyder, he is one of those entrenched Democrats I mentioned above but the NRCC has by now made it clear it will go after Snyder and AR-01’s Marion Berry.

To truly make thee Arkansas Democrats vulnerable, the GOP will have to land top challengers, but given how entrenched both Snyder and Berry are the NRCC can hope to convince anyone to run unless they demonstrate their willingness to spend hard money on these districts. Indeed, early advertising is one thing, recruiting credible challengers is quite another. While the GOP has met some success in blue-leaning districts like OR-04 and CA-47, it still has work to do against the more obviously vulnerable Democrats.

In NC-08, a swing district in which Larry Kissell won a tough battle in 2008, Republicans were talking up the potential candidacy of Mike Minter. A former football, Minter looked interested in the race but, in a clear blow to the NRCC, he recently announced that he would not run. (This might open the door to a comeback by former Rep. Hayes, though he would probably not be the GOP’s best option.)

As much as I would like to think that athletes cannot just waltz their way into the political arena and win, there is enough evidence to suggest that Minter would have been a formidable candidate - starting with Democrat Heath Shuler, another football star who successfuly ran against an incumbent in 2006. Minter spent his entire career playing for the Carolina Panthers, which gives him huge name recognition and popularity in this district. (The Panthers are based in Charlotte, part of which is contained in NC-08.)

The GOP might have more success in WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind, who has easily held since his first victory in 1996, has not mentioned as a potentially vulnerable incumbent but he could soon draw a serious opponent: state Senator Dan Kapanke is signaling his interest in challenging Kind. WI-03 only narrowly went for Gore and Kerry (3% each time) but Obama received 58% of the vote. As such, it is not the most obvious place for an unexpected Republican offensive, but trying to expand the map to usually uncontested districts certainly did not hurt Democrats in 2006.


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Poll watch: Senators Dodd, Burr and Gillibrand improve their standing

Chris Dodd no longer looks like dead man walking

Earlier this spring, a series of polls helped drive the narrative of Chris Dodd’s collapse - none more so than Quinnipiac’s early April survey that found the Connecticut Senator down a shocking hole.

That poll was conducted at the height of the fallout over AIG bonuses, during which Dodd was attracting daily bad press. Nearly two months have passed and Quinnipiac finally revisted Dodd’s electoral standing, finding that the senator is still vulneralbe but that his situation has improved:

  • In a match-up with former Rep. Rob Simmons, Dodd trails 45% to 39%. (In early April, he trailed by a dramatic 50% to 34%.) Simmons leads by 23% among independents; Dodd only gets 67% of the Democratic vote.
  • Against state Senator Sam Caligiuri, Dodd is narrowly ahead 41% to 39%; in Quinnipiac’s previous survey, Dodd trailed by 4%.
  • Most fascinating are Dodd’s numbers in a Democratic primary: When matched-up with Mystic businessman Merrick Alpert, he only leads 44% to 24% - as clear a mark of vulnerability as any.
  • When asked what they do not like about Dodd, 24% voters who disapprove of him cite his “overall dishonesty or lack of integrity” and 17% “his failure to deal with banking industry problems.”

It would be a stretch to call this poll good news for the Connecticut Senator. The poll’s bottom line is that Dodd is still trailing Simmons, a politician who has not held elected office for three years and who never represented more than a fifth of the state - not to mention that he fails to muster a significant lead against an unknown state Senator. All in all, a five-term Democratic incumbent from a blue-leaning has no excuse to be stuck between 39% and 41% and Dodd remains one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle.

That said, there is no question that Democrats will be relieved by Quinnipiac’s latest survey: Dodd is no longer a dead man walking and it is now possible to envision him surviving his re-election race. Quinnipiac’s previous survey had left Dodd looking like the Democrats’ version of Jim Bunning - so vulnerable that we started to wonder whether the party would try to push him out. That’s the sort of question we can ask of an incumbent who is trailing by 16%; not when he is behind by 6%.

One problem for Dodd is that Simmons and Caligiuri have both already declared their candidacy, so he cannot rely on failed Republican recruitment to win re-election; on the other hand, this also means that he will not be taken by surprise and he will have time to raise money and work on his re-election strategy while Democrats look for way to boost his image. Obama did just that last week when he credited Dodd with passing the credit card bill.

Burr scores double-digit leads against long series of Democrats

PPP’s monthly North Carolina poll confirms that Senator Richard Burr got a major break when Attorney General Roy Cooper announced he would not run in 2010: While PPP had twice found Cooper in the lead, no other Democrat even come closes.

Burr leads by double-digits against six Democrats - some of whom are quite prominent; PPP had tested only one of these match-ups before and the trendline shows that the incumbent has improved his position:

  • Burr leads Rep. Heath Shuler 44% to 28%; earlier this year, PPP found Burr leading 39% to 28%.
  • All the other match-ups have been tested for the first time: Burr leads Elizabeth Edwards 46% to 35%, state Senator Dan Blue 44% to 33%, former Treasurer Richard Moore 47% to 34%, Rep. Bob Etheridge 47% to 31% and Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton 48% to 29%. (I am not counting the match-up including state Senator Cal Cunningham, since PPP decided to include a two-sentence positive bio about him.)
  • Most of the Democrats have a mediocre-to-bad favorability rating, starting with Dalton (24-29), Blue (24-31) and Shuler (25-25). Only Etheridge (31-27) and Moore (36-25) have a positive rating.

Sure, Burr is under 50% in all match-ups - and that keeps him in the list of vulnerable incumbents. But it is silly to make this the take-home lesson of this poll, as do PPP and other websites in their analysis. (I have already criticized PPP’s tendency to spin its otherwise-serious and reliable polls into good news for Democrats.) The 50% threshold might be interesting to point out, but the bottom line is that that no Democrat is able to keep Burr within single-digits - even the one who managed to do so a few months ago.

Sure, Burr is not guaranteed an easy ride to re-election but Democrats are by no means certain to make this race a competitive one. That even Moore, a popular politician who has won statewide before and ran in a high-profile gubernatorial primary, is unable to come within 13% of Burr is not a good sign for Democrats - not to mention Burr’s 19% dominance over the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor. Add to this the fact that none of these Democrats are even looking that interested in running and the situation gets trickier for the DSCC: The political environment is unlikely to be as favorable in 2010 as it was in 2008 and it will be that much harder to carry a low-profile lawmaker to victory.

Gillibrand improves re-elect numbers, but poll did not test her within Democrats

Not only is Kirsten Gillibrand looking stronger as potential rivals announce they will not run, but it also looks like her poll numbers are improving. Last month, 20% of New Yorkers said they would vote for her in a Siena survey while 39% said they wanted someone else; the latest Siena poll shows that many voters have changed their mind:

  • 27% want to re-elect her while 39% would prefer someone else. These numbers are by no means satisfactory - any incumbent with a re-elect of 27% is vulnerable - but they do suggest an improvement of Gillibrand’s prospects.
  • But other measures of Gillibrand’s popularity did not bulge: Her favorability rating remained the same (33% to 21%), as did her numbers when matched up with two potential Republican opponents: She leads Rep. Peter King 48% to 26% (47% to 23% last month) and she is tied to Governor George Pataki, 43% to 43%.

Unfortunately, Siena did not test Gillibrand just within her party. It would have been most interesting to see whether her re-elect numbers has improved among Democratic voters and how she would fare in a hypothetical primary against Carolyn Maloney or Carolyn McCarthy.

The poll also tested David Paterson, who remains in as dreadful a situation as ever: The Siena poll finds him crushed 70% to 19% by Andrew Cuomo in a Democratic primary and 59% to 31% in by Rudy Giuliani in a general election. (Cuomo leads Giuliani by 12%). At least, Pterson has stopped the bleeding: 27% approve of his performance - which is exactly the same as in last month’s survey. In fact, his re-elect numbe has slightly improved: 15% say they want to vote for him in 2010 while 71% disagree.

In an other important question, New Yorkers divide equally on same-sex marriage: 46% to 46%. This is a setback for gay right proponents, as last month’s survey had respondents approve of gay marriage 53% to 39%.


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The politics of the Sotomayor pick

My first post on Sotomayor concentrated on her profile and her pick’s consequences on the composition of the Supreme Court. But a Supreme Court nomination is obviously also about politics as it has to go through a confirmation battle and can come to define a president’s legacy.

In Sotomayor, Obama chose a nominee who is unlikely to face a difficult confirmation battle. He combined the formula used by Bill Clinton (pick a moderate judge to ensure the opposition is afraid a second choice could be more radical) with that used by George W. Bush (a judge who has such a stellar resume that derailing him becomes virtually impossible). And he added a third element by choosing someone whose ethnic and class background makes it all the more tricky to oppose her.

Sotomayor is heading towards an easy confirmation hearing

As the Roberts nomination demonstrated, it is tough for a party to muster opposition to a federal judge who has impeccable qualifications - and Sotomayor undeniably does: Undergraduate studies at Princeton, Yale Law School, appointment to a district court by a Republican president, appointment to the appeals court by a Democratic president… This is a resume tailor-made for an easy confirmation hearing! Jeffrey Rosen’s much-quoted TNR article suggested that her opponents will question her intellectual credentials, but that is quite obviously not a viable argument given the trajectory of Sotomayor’s career.

Add to that the fact that Sotomayor has a centrist reputation and no track record on abortion (the issue that the GOP typically seizes on to rally its base, as it did with Sebelius) and it becomes difficult to envision conservatives convincing the Republican center - let alone public opinion - to oppose her nomination.

In fact, conservatives should ask themselves whether they even want to derail her nomination. As I discussed earlier, Sotomayor was on the moderate side of Obama’s list: If Sotomayor is somehow derailed, not only would Republicans not suddenly get a chance to choose Souter’s replacement but Obama’s second pick could very well be further to the left than his initial one. Should the GOP push hard to defeat Sotomayor?

Finally, many in the GOP will be sensible enough to the danger of antagonizing the Hispanic community that they will be weary of mounting a full-on attack on Sotomayor - especially given how clear it is that she will be confirmed.

Republicans do not have the votes to block her

Despite all of these factors, let’s say that the Republican establishment decided that it was worth going all-out against Sotomayor. It will become quickly obvious to them that they do not have the votes to get anywhere. In fact, the Senate GOP is so weak that any nominee would have been heavily favored to be confirmed - let alone one that is likely to attract bipartisan support.

Democrats currently have 59 Senators; they are one short of the needed 60 votes, and it is possible that Minnesota’s Al Franken will be seated by the time Sotomayor’s nomination comes up for a vote. If he does - and if Ted Kennedy shows up for the vote, which is more unlikely than Franken’s presence - all Democrats need is a unified caucus. And this is a high-profile enough vote that such unity is likely - especially on cloture, which is obviously not the same as the confirmation vote.

Even if Franken is not seated and Kennedy does not show up, there are enough GOP Senators who tend to be deferential to presidential appointments that united Republican opposition is unfathomable. Already Senator Olympia Snowe, who voted in favor of Sotomayor’s appointment to the appeals court in 1998, released a statement suggesting she could support her SCOTUS nomination. Other Republicans who supported her in 98 are: Robert Bennett, Thad Cochran, Susan Collins, Orin Hatch, Judd Gregg and Richard Lugar. Among this list, I find it particularly unlikely that Hatch and Lugar would join a filibuster. Also watch out for Lisa Murkowski.

Heated opposition is still likely

The fact that Republicans are unlikely to derail Sotomayor and that they know it does not mean that Sotomayor should expect a quiet summer. Even if there is little suspense surrounding her confirmation, intense opposition is likely to arise in some conservative quarters.

The reason for this is simple: Few issues can arouse the passion of right-wing activists as much as a Supreme Court nominee. Thus, Republican Senators cannot afford being too conciliatory because they would risk angering their base; also, it provides an ideal way for conservative groups still stunned by the magnitude of their 2008 defeat to remobilize their activists, raise millions of dollars promising to battle Obama’s judicial agenda and thus get back in Washington’s political games.

And here is where the coming months could get tricky for Republicans: Images of conservatives agitating against the first Hispanic nominee to the Supreme Court could make their way in Hispanic media and further alienate the Latino community.

Remember that George Bush performed relatively well among this group in 2004, so it’s not like Hispanics have always voted Democratic. The GOP’s far-right rhetoric on immigration in recent years has provoked a significant rift between Hispanics and Republican. Obama has been looking to capitalize on Latino’s rising suspicion that they are not welcome in the GOP, and the Sotomayor pick could help Democrats solidify the Hispanic vote’s leftward trend. That could have dramatic consequences in Florida and in Southwestern states in 2010, 2012 and beyond.


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Sonia Sotomayor

From the moment Justice Souter announced his retirement, Sonia Sotomayor led the list of potential replacements. For a while, Diane Wood looked like the new favorite, but that was due as much to shady hit pieces against Sotomayor than to anything actually changing inside the White House. And at the end of the day, early conventional wisdom proved right: Barack Obama appointed Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.

The first Hispanic to be nominated to the Supreme Court, Sotomayor’s appointment could have important political consequences in solidifying the Democrats’ advantage among the Latino constituency - especially if conservatives go all-out in opposing her. But it is of course on the Supreme Court that this pick will matter most: Now only 54, Sotomayor will spend a long time on the bench - though a lot is already being written about her Type I diabetes.

Sotomayor will probably prove a reliable member of the court’s liberal bloc and she should prove at least as liberal as Souter. But many on the left were hoping for a bit more and they could be disappointed that Obama did not use the opportunity to appoint someone who could have proven to be an ideological counterweight to Antonin Scalia -  a judge who pushes for broad changes to jurisprudence or who has a large enough vision to deploy an aggressive argumentative arsenal against Scalia and Thomas.

Such an arsenal might have lacked the votes to win decisions now, but it could have been used by liberal judges on lower courts and laid the groundwork for the left’s judiciary renaissance in the decades ahead. (This is what occurred with Justice Rehnquist, for instance.)

Instead, Sotomayor has a centrist profile, a minimalist vision of the judiciary and a clear preference for narrow and incremental rulings. She looks far closer ideologically to the man she will replace than to Justices like Marshall and Brennan. She is unlikely to alter the current situation by which the four liberal Justices are closer to the center than the four conservative Justices, an unbalance that skews the court to the right before we even add in Anthony Kennedy.

She is also more of a moderate than most of the other potential picks. Wood, the rumored runner-up, is also centrist but looks to be further to the left on issues like business law and the scope of executive power - not to say anything of people like Pam Karlan and Kathleen Sullivan.

“Known as a moderate on the court, Sotomayor often forges consensus and agreeing with her more conservative nominees far more frequently than she disagrees with them,” say the White House’s talking points, leaked to the press earlier today. And while many Republicans like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are clamoring their opposition, a founder of the conservative group Judicial Watch is enthused enough to release a statement praising Obama’s choice.

Sure, Obama could get another pick. But who knows whether circumstances will ever be as favorable for him to get whomever he wants confirmed? More importantly, the president does not seem interested in appointing a clearly left-leaning judge and his centrist politics align him with someone like Sotomayor. This is not to say that Obama is not sensible to the argument that a counterweight to Scalia is needed to balance the Court but what Obama understands by “counterweight” has probably less to do with ideology than intellectual ferocity and argumentative brilliance.

And Sotomayor is undeniably very well equipped to become a legal superstar. Despite the month-long smear campaign that sought to portray her as somewhat of a dummy, someone who was born in a working-class family in the Bronx and worked her way through Yale Law School clearly has the intellectual gravitas needed to shape jurisprudence in lasting and meaningful ways.

All in all, Sotomayor has enough of a track-record that she seems unlikely to be the Democrats’ version of Souter and O’Connor. Some liberals are expressing concern that Sotomayor was first appointed to the federal bench by George H. W. Bush - but articles written back in 1992 made it clear that she was nominated as part of the compromise Republicans struck with Democrat Daniel Moynihan that allowed the New York Senator to recommend people to fill two of the nine district court vacancies.

Another point of discussion concerns Sotomayor’s years as a prosecutor and how that might impact her work on the court. An article published in The New York Times in 1983 makes for a fascinating read:

Sonia Sotomayor, now in her fifth year as an A.D.A., tried to examine her own motives in making the decision to join the office of the prosecutor… “There was a tremendous amount of pressure from my community, from the third-world community, at Yale,” she recalls. “They could not understand why I was taking this job. I’m not sure I’ve ever resolved that problem.

Some of Miss Sotomayor’s initial misgivings about working as a prosecutor were resolved when she moved from misdemeanors to more serious crimes. “I had more problems during my first year in the office with the low-grade crimes — the shoplifting, the prostitution, the minor assault cases,” she says. “In large measure, in those cases you were dealing with socioeconomic crimes, crimes that could be the product of the environment and of poverty.

“Once I started doing felonies, it became less hard. No matter how liberal I am, I’m still outraged by crimes of violence. Regardless of whether I can sympathize with the causes that lead these individuals to do these crimes, the effects are outrageous.”

“What I am finding, both statistically and emotionally,” she continues, “is that the worst victims of crimes are not general society — i.e., white folks —- but minorities themselves. The violence, the sorrow are perpetrated by minorities on minorities.”

Miss Sotomayor, an imposing woman of 29 who smokes cigarettes incessantly, speaks deliberately of how she has coped with the job. “The one thing I have found,” she says, “is that if you come into the criminal-justice system on a prosecutorial or defense level thinking that you can change the ills of society, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. This is not where those kinds of changes have to be made.”

With the caveat that Sotomayor has probably changed a lot over the course of 26 years, this article confirmed that Sotomayor is liberal (someone whose instincts are not at the left would not feel the need to justify being a prosecutor), that she believes in a minimalist vision of judicial restraint and that the left should not expect more (or less) from her than it got from Souter.

A look at some of her important appeals court decisions gets me to similar conclusions.

One case in particular seems symptomatic of Sotomayor’s reluctance to issue broad decisions and of the limits of scrutinizing her record. In January, she joined a ruling which upheld a New York law prohibiting chukka sticks on the basis that the Second Amendment does not apply to the states. The majority opined that this was a matter of settled Supreme Court precedent but recognized that last year’s Heller vs. DC decision might suggest otherwise; but, the court wrote, “the Supreme Court [should be left] the prerogative of overruling its own decisions.”

Once on the Supreme Court, she will no longer be bound by such considerations and she will be in a position to overturn past decisions. Her strict reliance on Supreme Court precedent while on the appeals court makes it very difficult to predict how she might negotiate that transition.

Interestingly, this chukka stick ruling is the one second amendment case she has dealt with. She has no track record on issues relating to the scope of executive power and gay rights and the thinnest of records on matters relating to abortion and the second amendment - all issues that she is likely to deal with once on the Court. Let’s look at some of these and other topics in more detail.

Civil rights: The case that is likely to attract the most attention in coming weeks is Ricci vs. DeStefano, a case brought about by a white and Hispanic firefighters when New Haven’s fire department did not give out any promotions after black applicants performed disproportionately poorly on a test. Sotomayor was part of a 3-judge panel that issued a short and unsigned ruling affirming a lower court’s decision that the city’s promotion policies were not discriminatory. The case is currently being decided by the Supreme Court, which is expected to reverse Sotomayor’s ruling in the coming weeks.

What could prove controversial in the coming weeks is not necessarily the substance of Sotomayor’s decision as much as the fact that the panel on which she sat did not issue any opinion to complement that of the district court. If Sotomayor was concerned with protecting the Civil Rights Act’s Title VII, why would she not issue a decision defending her ruling in favor of New Haven and thus making it more difficult for the Supreme Court to rule in favor of Ricci?

The ScotusBlog’s Judge Sotomayor’s Appellate Opinions in Civil Cases has far more detailed analyses of Sotomayor’s appeal court decisions on civil rights and work discrimination cases. While Sotomayor has rejected such claims on a number of important decisions, she has often found evidence of discrimination. In The National Journal, Stuart Taylor criticizes her for being “representative of the Democratic Party’s powerful identity-politics wing.”

Abortion: Her only decision was one that drew praise from conservatives because she upheld the “Mexico City policy,” allowing the federal government to ban funding for foreign groups who support abortion procedures. Because she has written no other decision relating to abortion law, she should expect questions on her beliefs about the constitutionality of the right to privacy and her thoughts on state decisis. After all, anti-Roe forces already have 4 votes on the court; Sotomayor might be unlikely to provide a 5th vote but Senators from both parties are likely to press her for hints.

Business: Sotomayor’s record looks to be centrist - just as that of the other liberal Justices. Business Weekly published an article this morning highlighting the fact that her prior decisions do not find her consistently siding with employees or employers, consistently approving federal preemption defenses or rejecting them. One decision that will likely be cited in the weeks ahead is her decision in favor of homeless people paid $1 dollar an hour for menial labor.

Election law: Ballot Access News takes a look at Sotomayor’s opinions on election law, noting that she ruled to make ballot access easier and to ease write-in rules. Perhaps most importantly, she filed a dissent in Hayden vs. Pataki, a case that addressed whether the Voting Right Acts protects minorities when it comes to felon disenfranchisement. Not only did Sotomayor join the main dissent, but she filed a dissenting opinion of her own.

I will write another post later on the politics of the Sotomayor pick, starting with why it’s hard to envision a tough confirmation battle.


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In blow to Senate Republicans, Griffin will not run in Arkansas

The NRSC has been confident it has a chance at defeating Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010 and their hopes have long looked somewhat justified: Not only were Lincoln’s poll numbers mediocre, but the GOP looked fairly certain to score a credible recruit in the form of Tim Griffin.

A former U.S. Attorney, Griffin spent much of the past few months traveling across Arkansas and releasing statements attacking the Democratic Senator on issues like the Employee Free Choice Act. But in an unexpected move, Griffin has abruptly pulled out of contention, telling an Arkansas News reporter that the timing is not right for a run. “He’s got a lot going on,” writes David J. Sanders, citing Griffin’s desire to grow a family and to develop his business.

Of course, none of these things are factors that suddenly popped up on the radar screen in recent weeks, so it is more likely that Griffin’s change of heart is due to his loss of confidence that he would be able to unseat Lincoln - or perhaps his fear that he would have to fight his way out of a Republican primary. For all the talk of a Republican resurgence in congressional races, it is important to remember that the environment is still unfavorable enough for the GOP that it remains difficult for the party’s committees to recruit top candidates.

Griffin’s decision is undeniably a blow to the GOP’s prospects of challenging Lincoln. To be sure, he would have brought a lot of baggage to the Senate race. A former aide to Karl Rove, he would have been easy for Democrats to tag as a lackey of the Bush administration - especially given that Griffin played a prominent role in the U.S. Attorney’s scandal (Alberto Gonzalez bypassed the confirmation process in appointing him, and it was later alleged that the previous U.S. Attorney was dismissed to make room for Griffin).

Yet, the state GOP is notoriously weak and Republicans have a laughably weak bench. By Arkansas standards, then, Griffin was as well-connected and promising a candidate as the NRSC could have hoped for and a PPP poll released at the end of March found Lincoln leading Griffin by an unimpressive 8% (46% to 38%).

To make matters worse for Republicans, Griffin’s withdrawal comes just days after state Senator Kim Hendren (Lincoln’s one declared challenger) announced he was no longer sure he would pursue the race because of the controversy he created when he called Chuck Schumer “that Jew.” Whatever Hendren decides to do, he will find it difficult to emerge as a credible candidate after the events of the past week: There were already enough doubts that a 71-year old state lawmaker has what it takes to mount a competitive Senate race that his offensive comments will make it hard for him to get his campaign off the ground.

Remain two Republicans: One is state Senator Gilbert Baker, who just said he is “more open” to runnign than he was a month ago; the second is Safe Food CEO Curtis Coleman, whose main advantage is that he could self-fund part of his campaign. Either could make a decent candidate, but there is no doubt that things have been looking up for Lincoln.

Might this impact her behavior in the Senate? While Lincoln has never been a liberal, she has been recently moving to the right on a variety of issues. According to Progressive Punch, her “progressive score” is 68.44; but her rating for the current Congress is far lower - only 44.44. It is hard not to attribute some of that significant rightward drift to her worry that she might face a competitive re-election race.

If Baker passes on the race or if his candidacy fails to take off, allowing Lincoln to feel more comfortable about her re-election chances, might she reintegrate the Democratic mainstream? On no issue would this play a bigger role than on the Employee Free Choice Act: Lincoln was the first Democratic Senator to announce her unequivocal opposition to EFCA but she voted in favor of its 2007 version. Her high-profile reversal now looks to be one of the toughest obstacles the bill has to overcome.


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Weekly update, 18th week: The Crist, Cooper and Huntsman aftermath

Before we move on to the recap of this week’s midterm news: I will be going on a trip from tomorrow morning through Saturday. I will have Internet so I’ll stay top of the news and write a bit each day but I will blog at a slower pace than usual to enjoy the break!

The past week’s midterm news were dominated by the aftermath of Charlie Crist, Roy Cooper and Jon Huntsman’s much-discussed decisions. In FL, no less than 4 prominent Republicans announced their plans in the newly opened gubernatorial race: Attorney General Bill McCollum is running, Lieutenant Governor Jeff Kottkamp, Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson and Senate President Jeff Atwater are not. In NC, the DSCC is scrambling to find a candidate: We now know that Charles Meeker and Grier Martin are out and that Heath Shuler is reconsidering.

But the most game-changing events occurred in Utah, a state that looked as quiet as any a week ago and that is now hosting two competitive statewide races: For one, there is a new gubernatorial race on the map, with politicians from both parties (primarily Republicans) scrambling to position themselves for the off-schedule contest. And Attorney General Mark Shurtleff’s announcement that he will challenge Senator Bennett in the GOP primary always puts the state’s Senate seat in play.

Among less-noticed but consequential developments: In Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis officially declared himself a gubernatorial candidate; reports were already circulating that he had decided to run. McInnis will be a credible challenger to weakening Governor Ritter. In Alabama, state Senator Roger Bedford ruled out a gubernatorial run after “the lord led” him to that decision. This leaves Artur Davis and Ron Sparks locked in a two-way race, a configuration that might improve Sparks’s prospects: Bedford’s candidacy could have split the white vote and help Davis win the primary.

In two states, Republicans were left searching for statewide candidates. In Arkansas, state Senator Kim Hendren has said he is no longer sure of running after calling Sen. Schumer “that Jew;” his withdrawal could help the GOP recruit a stronger candidate. In Iowa, Doug Gross and David Vault ruled out a challenge to Governor Culver, which led to a new round of reports about whether the state GOP will get its act together by next year.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation.

First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one.
Will not retire No one.
Added to list of potential retirees Rep. Jose Serrano (D, NY-16)
Rep. Heath Shuler (D, NC-11)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP state Senator Kim Hendren no longer sure to run
IL-Sen, Dem Chris Kennedy reportedly planning to announce run
LA-Sen, GOP Suzanne Haik Terrell added to list, then rules out run
NC-Sen, Dem state Rep. Grier Martin will not run
Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker will not run
Rep. Heath Shuler is reconsidering
NY-Sen, Dem Rep. Jose Serrano added to list
Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer will not run
UT-Sen, Dem Liquor Control Commission Chairman Sam Granato added to list
UT-Sen, GOP Attorney General Mark Shurtleff announced run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AL-Gov, Dem state Senator Roger Bedford will not run
CO-Gov, GOP former Rep. Scott McInnis officially launched campaign
FL-Gov, GOP state Senate President Jeff Atwater will not run
Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson will not run
Lieutenant Governor Jeff Kottkamp will not run
Attorney General Bill McCollum announced run
IA-Gov, GOP state Senator Jerry Behn added to list
University of Dubuque President Jeffrey Bullock added to list
2002 nominee Doug Gross will not run
former state Senator Jeff Lamberti
state Rep. Rod Roberts added to list
state Auditor David Vaudt will not run
businessman Mike Whalen added to list
UT-Gov, Dems Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon added to list
state Sen. Pat Jones added to list
state Rep. David Litvack added to list
Rep. Jon Matheson added to list
UT-Gov, GOP Zions Bank President Scott Anderson added to list
Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce President Lane Beattie added to list
House Speaker Dave Clark added to list
state Sen. John Valentine added to list


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  • All good things must come to an end

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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