Campaign Diaries

My attempt to put together comprehensive House ratings is preventing me from maintaining my usual blogging pace, but that means that the true political junkies among you can look forward to a detailed look at more than 60 GOP-held seats in the days ahead - probably by Monday. (The Democratic-held seats will come later.)

Dropping out: Garamendi drops down to House race

Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi was the first Democrat to enter California’s gubernatorial race; he is now the first to bow out. Stuck in the low single-digits in most polls of the Democratic primary, Garamendi was being asphyxiated by the other heavyweights that are in the race - a frustrating situation for someone who holds the position generally viewed as a stepping stone towards the governorship. Garamendi’s exit strategy: He jumped in the special election for California’s 10th Congressional District.

Sure, Garamendi can still jump in the gubernatorial race if he loses CA-10’s Democratic primary later this year; but that is hardly a viable scenario. How would Garamendi look like a credible contender against Jerry Brown or Gavin Newsom if he cannot defeat state Senators in a House district?

Interestingly, California bloggers are urging Garamendi to change gears one more time and challenge Rep. Lungren in CA-03 rather than run in CA-10. While the Lieutenant Governor currently resides in CA-10, he was born in what is now the 3rd District and represented part of that seat in the state legislature in the 1970s and 1980s. While such a move would be difficult to pull off, it would arguably be easier than the gubernatorial primary Garamendi was willing to jump into.

Opening the door: Mike McIntyre considers Senate run

Rep. Mike McIntyre is considered unlikely to challenge North Carolina Senator Richard Burr in 2010, and PPP acknowledged just as much when they decided to include his name in their statewide poll earlier this month. But McIntyre only trailed Burr by 3% in that survey, sparking the interest of Democrats who are now wondering whether he could be a back-up candidate in case Attorney General Cooper declines a run.

Asked whether he would consider a Senate run, McIntyre somewhat unexpectedly left the door wide open. “You never say never to anything,” he said, “but I will tell you this, my job right now is the United States Congress. That’s what I’m working on. We’re already looking ahead to get ready for next year’s election to the US Congress, and that’s where my concentration is.” Did he purposefully repeat the term “Congress” - which includes both chambers - rather than the term “House”?

This is good news for the DSCC, as Cooper looked to be the only prominent politician not to close the door to challenging Burr. The problem for Democrats is that McIntyre’s district (NC-07) leans Republican: McCain prevailed by 5% last fall, George W. Bush by 12% in 2004. An open seat could be difficult for Democrats to defend.

Delaying decision: Steelman slows down the pace

A few weeks ago, former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman was busy tearing into fellow Republican Rep. Roy Blunt - a clear sign that she was preparing to jump in the Missouri Senate race. Yet, she has been more quiet over the past month. So what is the deal? In a new Roll Call interview (via SSP), Steelman acknowledged that she’s “moving in [the] direction” of a Senate run, but she refused to commit to the race. “I am still looking at it,” she said. “I know everybody is in a big hurry but I have my own time frame.”

Slowing down the pace like this could be a way to have one foot in the race without being held to the same benchmarks as declared candidates: Everyone is talking about Blunt’s (relatively) weak 1st quarter fundraising as a sign he might be beatable, but Steelman gets to sit back and offer commentary on Blunt’s potential without much discussion of her own financial strength. Similarly, she can criticize her potential Republican opponent while remaining an elusive target herself since Blunt does not want to legitimize her by attacking before she actually steps in the contest.