Campaign Diaries

In New York, Maloney and Cuomo drop hints

In March, I talked about Andrew Cuomo’s decision to hire one of Eliot Spitzer’s top fundraiser as a sign that he is preparing for bigger things than a re-election campaign. Now, PolitickerNY is reporting two similar hiring moves in the Empire State (PolitickerNY is doing a great job at reading the tea leaves of New York Democrats and monitoring their moves):

• Rep. Carolyn Maloney has hired a statewide finance director. This is the first time that the longtime representative has hired someone with a “statewide” title, which obviously suggests that she is looking at a Senate run in 2010.

• Cuomo has secured the help of one Jennifer Bayer Michaels, Chuck Schumer’s former chief fundraisers and a senior fundraiser for the DSCC.

Maloney, first: Why would she drop such a hint if she is not willing to declare a candidacy? It helps Maloney label herself as a serious Senate contender and get in contact with prospective donors. And her new statewide director is doing nothing to silence speculation. “Anything that might happen is only in the talking and planning stages,” he said. Rep. McCarthy might have been the first representative to criticize Gillibrand, but Maloney is doing the most to suggest she is serious about a run.

As for Cuomo, he might be insisting that he has no plans to run for Governor - but his actions suggest otherwise. The Attorney General is in no danger of losing re-election in 2010, so it would make little sense for him to hire/recruit high-profile, well-connected consultants and fundraisers on top of his already pre-existing (and already top-notch) team if he had no intention to seek a promotion next year.

The Memphis Mayor looks to jump in TN-09

Elected in Harold Ford Jr.’s former seat, Steve Cohen is currently the only white congressman to represent a black-majority district. After winning a crowded primary in 2006, Cohen last year faced a primary challenge from Nikki Tinker, a political novice. The contest grabbed national headlines for Tinker’s racially charged campaigning; her last-minute ads accusing Cohen of “praying in our churches” were denounced by Barack Obama and Ford Jr. On Election Day, Cohen won an unexpectedly decisive victory and received 79% of the vote.

He must have thought that would allow him a few years of political rest, but a top-tier challenger has unexpectedly emerged that could make Cohen’s past two campaigns look like cakewalks: Willie Herenton, who is currently serving his fifth term as the Mayor of Memphis, has formed an exploratory committee to run for Cohen’s House seat.

Mayors tend to have a well-oiled machine and are well-known by their constituents; Herenton’s long tenure makes it that much more of a formidable congressional candidate. That does mean he is unbeatable, however: He won his fifth term with only 42% of the vote - his lowest level of support - and his tenure has been rocky at times. But combined with the district’s racial make-up, Herenton’s credentials are enough to make Cohen one of the most endangered incumbents of the cycle.

Thankfully, we should not expect a Herenton-Cohen match-up to degenerate into the same nastiness as last year’s primary. Tinker had little political experience to run on; her primary hope was the district’s majority-black status, so it is thus not surprising that she resorted to running a racially divisive campaign. Herenton, on the other hand, is well-known figure to Memphis voters. We can debate whether he would have felt confident enough in his chances to challenge an African-American challenger, but race is certainly not the primary rationale of his candidacy. He can run on his accomplishments, his record, his familiarity with Memphis’s problems, his relationship with his constituents. The election will be as much a referendum on him as on Cohen.

Interviewed by the Memphis Commercial Appeal, Cohen sounded taken aback by Herenton’s move. “Mayor Herenton has always been very friendly toward me,” he said. And he immediately pointed out that he doubted Herenton would enjoy legislative life. “Being one of 435 is not like being No. 1,” he explained. “To be honest, I don’t think Mayor Herenton would like being a congressmen. It’s a lot of work and it’s not a lot of power.” Cohen’s comments were not just intended as friendly advice; he made it clear that they would be his basic argument during a campaign against Herenton. “The best qualifications to be a congressman is legislative experience,” he noted.

While I am skeptical that such an argument would resonate much with voters, it is certainly an interesting point. North Carolina’s former Governor Mike Easley declined running for Senate in 2008 after explicitly stating that he did not think legislative life was cut for him; Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry has said just as much this year. And many question how well a politician like Charlie Crist would take to the Senate’s slow pace and deliberative procedures.