Campaign Diaries

An endangered Democratic Senator

Colorado Senator Michael Bennet has only had a few months to introduce himself to his constituents, since he was little-known until he was appointed to the Senate at the end of December. That means he has room to grow in the coming years, but it also makes him an obvious target since he is an untested campaigner and since appointed Senators typically face a tough time winning their first re-election race.

A new PPP survey confirms that the NRSC should focus on Colorado:

• Bennet’s approval rating is negative, with 41% disapproving his performance and 34% approving. Among Hispanics - traditionally a Democratic constituency - Bennet’s approval stands at 36-45.

• Former Rep. Beauprez edges out Bennet 43% to 42%. That’s well within the margin of error, but it is nonetheless a sign that voters are willing to take a second look at Beauprez, whom they massively rejected in the 2006 gubernatorial election. (On the other hand,Beauprez’s favorability rating is worse than Bennet’s.) Among Hispanics, Bennet only leads by 5%.

• Bennet narrowly leads three other Republicans - but given their low profiles Bennet’s weak numbers are more a sign of vulnerability than of strength: He leads Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier 39% to 35%; DA Ken Buck 40% to 34% and John Penry 41% to 34%. Frazier just formed an exploratory committee last week.

There is no doubt that Bennet is vulnerable. In 2010, the country might be in an anti-incumbent mood, and Bennet will have had little time to entrench himself. The main question is the quality of GOP recruitment, but this poll suggests that Bennet could be vulnerable against any number of Republicans.

We already know that it is unlikely the GOP will field a top-tier candidate. Former Rep. McInnis and Attorney General John Suthers have ruled out a run, and former Governor Owens is sometimes mentioned as a potential candidate, but there is little buzz surrounding him. This leaves Republicans with a list of low-profile candidates and with Beauprez, who has already badly lost a statewide run. But if one of them proves to be a strong candidate, they could certainly run a highly threatening campaign.

[Update, an additional point] Sure, Bennet has one more year to introduce himself to voters but we really do not know yet whether he has the political skills to make that introduction a successful one - not to mention that Republicans will do their best to define Bennet before he has had a chance to make a lasting impression in voters’ minds. Furthermore, the little-known Republicans like Frazier and Buck will have just as much time to introduce themselves than Bennet will have: The former has already launched his campaign, and he will also get a chance to improve his numbers as voters come to know him better.

Corzine still under 40%

In two new surveys released this morning, Governor Corzine trails by significant margins – but he looks to have finally halted his free fall. First comes a Strategic Vision poll:

• Corzine posts a disastrous approval rating – 36% to 54%.
• Against former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, he trails 47% to 36%; but the Democrat leads against Steve Lonegan and Brian Levine, 44% to 39% and 42% to 40%, respectively.
• The problem for the incumbent is that Christie is heavily favored to win the Republican primary: He leads Lonegan 40% to 15%.

Second, Quinnipiac’s monthly survey:

• Christie is ahead 45% to 38%; in mid-March, he led by a larger 46% to 37%.
• Unfortunately for the Governor, the poll also finds his approval rating has hit a record low – 37% to 54% compared to 40% to 50% in March; this is the worst showing for an incumbent Governor in the past 13 years of Quinnipiac polling.

Recent polls have shown Christie’s lead expanding to the neighborhood of 15% - have even found the Governor trailing the low-profile Steve Lonegan, a sure sign that Corzine is in a deep hole. These two new surveys – particularly that of Quinnipiac, a trusted pollster that interviewed more than 2,200 respondents – will thus comfort Corzine’s supporters: All is not yet lost and Corzine is not going David Paterson’s way. While the New York Governor is still in free fall and while his constituents appear to have given up on him, his New Jersey colleague has stabilized his decline and remains a viable candidate.

That said, there is no question that Corzine has become the underdog. Sure, New Jersey Democrats are accustomed to pulling last-minute comebacks, but for an incumbent to be stuck under 40% for months is quite dismal a showing. To pull off a recovery, Corzine will have to improve his approval rating and reassure voters that he can take care of the economy. But Election Day is only six months away. Time is pressing for the Governor, and neither of these polls suggests that he is winning back voters’ trust – quite the contrary.