Campaign Diaries

Despite Governor Janet Napolitano’s departure from Arizona, John McCain could see some action in 2010: Chris Simcox, the head of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, has announced he will challenge the former presidential candidate in next year’s Republican primary.

The MCDC is a distinct organization from the better-known Minuteman Project; both are vigilante groups that aim to monitor the flow of migrants at the Mexican border. But here’s the twist: Simcox has co-founded both organizations! He organized the Minuteman Project with Jim Gilchrist, who is still the group’s president. In 2005, the two men parted ways, and Simcox went back to a group he had created earlier (Civil Homeland Defense), renaming it the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps.

Now, he is looking to jump into the political arena. In his candidacy statement, Simcox made it clear that he would tackle McCain from the far-right on his pet issue - immigration:

John McCain has failed miserably in his duty to secure this nation’s borders and protect the people of Arizona from the escalating violence and lawlessness. He has fought real efforts over the years at every turn, opting to hold our nation’s border security hostage to his amnesty schemes. Coupled with his votes for reckless bailout spending and big government solutions to our nation’s problems, John McCain is out of touch with everyday Arizonans. Enough is enough.

Sure, Simcox starts as a clear underdog; but the challenge should not underestimated. McCain’s weakness in his home state and Simcox’s potential ability to motivate Arizona’s conservative base could make for an interesting race.

Conservatives distrust McCain

Throughout the past cycle, conservative distrust for John McCain loomed large on the GOP’s presidential primary. In fact, McCain’s candidacy was nearly derailed by his championing of the comprehensive immigration reform bill that failed to be approved by Congress; the Senator had to stop talking about immigration to have a chance to survive the Republican primary.

While McCain managed to emerge as the nominee at the end of a long process of elimination, his hold on Arizona seemed particularly weak: On Super Tuesday, he received less than 50% of the vote in Arizona - beating Romney by an unexpectedly small margin of 12% (47% to 35%). That was a dismal showing for one of the country’s most famous Senators - one who has represented Arizona since 1986.

The situation did not improve in the following months: Countless articles were written detailing the rift between McCain and the state’s conservative establishment - and many Arizona Republicans were willing to hit on their party’s presumptive nominee. In the run-up to Election Day, Arizona looked to be increasingly close - so much so that the GOP started to fear that McCain might lose his home-state to Barack Obama.

In other words: McCain is far less entrenched in his home state than many people would assume, and he has enough problems with his party’s base - particularly on the issue of immigration - that a credible primary challenger could make him tremble.

Simcox, five years after Gilchrist

As the co-founder of one of the most prominent organizations of the American far-right, Simcox can count on a vast political network that will be delighted to help one of its own beat a man who has so often be accused of conservative apostasy. That means a lot of cash, enthusiastic supporters and a ton of free media. Better still, Simcox has a model to follow.

In 2005, Jim Gilchrist (who co-founded the Minuteman Project with Simcox) ran in the special election to represented California’s 48th District; he did so as an independent, not as a Republican. He received an impressive 25,5% of the vote, with 44,4% going to GOP nominee John Campbell and 27,8% to Democratic nominee Steve Young. That Gilchrest was able to receive a quarter of the vote suggests that there are enough single-issue voters for Simcox to have a shot at unseating McCain.

The first obvious difference between Gilchrist and Simcox is that the latter intends to run in the Republican primary. While many Minuteman supporters are not Republicans, it is a good bet that they could make up a bigger share in a Republican primary than in a general election - which means that Gilchrist’s 25,5% in CA-48’s general election could translate to a far higher number in a primary.

The second difference is that Gilchrist was running in an open seat while Simcox is attempting a statewide campaign against a longtime incumbent. Sure, that alone makes McCain the clear favorite - but it also gives Simcox an opportunity: Gilchrist could only run on his own positions, not really against Campbell’s; Simcox, on the other hand, can mobilize the GOP base with xenophobic rhetoric but he can also run against McCain - motivating conservative voters by reminding them they should dislike their Senator.

In short, McCain-Simcox is not guaranteed to be competitive and it ranks nowhere close the Specter-Toomey and Blunt-Steelman showdowns - but it certainly has the potential to get explosive.

An important note: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth was also mentioned as a potential primary challenger to McCain. Hayworth’s pet issue is also immigration, so will he step in now that Simcox has entered the field? Hayworth could make for a tougher opponent - but for both him and Simcox to run would divide the conservative vote too much.

Will a Democrat enter the ring?

If Simcox manages to pull off an upset, he would have a tough time winning the general election. If McCain prevails, he could emerge weakened and even more alienated from the Republican base. Unfortunately for Democrats, no candidate has emerged for now - and none is being mentioned as mulling a run.