Campaign Diaries

Will the son follow his father’s footsteps?

Last spring, former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s resignation allowed Democrats to pick-up IL-14 in a special election: Democrat Bill Foster edged out Republican nominee Jim Oberweis by 6%, dealing a humiliating blow to the Republican leadership in what was correctly interpreted as a harbinger of things to come. In November, Foster easily won a full two-year term in November by beating Oberweis by 15%.

At the time of the special election, the GOP’s defense was that Oberweis was a flawed candidate whose unfavorability rating was too high due to his past losses in bruising statewide primaries. In 2010, they will thus be eager to prove that they can do better than they did in 2008 with a stronger Republican candidate.

Enter Ethan Hastert, the 31-year old son of the former Speaker. Currently working as an attorney, Hastert has acknowledged talking to local Republican leaders about the possibility of a run - adding that he has already received the blessing of his father!

Hastert’s candidacy would be sure to make IL-14 a high-profile contest that would delight the press; the Republican would probably raise significant sums of money thanks to the connections he has acquired during his years working in the Bush administration and during his years practicing law, as well as thanks to his father’s political network. Yet, there are two significant obstacles to Hastert’s election.

The first is his own profile. Hastert worked as an assistant to Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney’s longtime Chief of Staff who was convicted in the Valerie Plame case; and his last name ties him to a Republican leadership that voters rejected in 2006 and in 2008 across the country - including in IL-14. In 2010, the DCCC might not be able to use Bush as a boogeyman the way they did last year; but for Republicans to nominate Hastert would be practically begging Democrats to do so.

Second, the politics of IL-14 changed dramatically last fall. When Foster won the special election, we thought of the district as a conservative-leaning seat; after all, it had given George W. Bush a 9% and 11% victory in 2000 and 2004, respectively. But Barack Obama crushed John McCain 55% to 44% in 2008, a dramatic swing that gives Foster the comfort of representing a blue district. Sure, the eye-popping magnitude of the district’s transformation is due to the fact that Obama comes from Illinois - but that also means that the President’s popularity could protect Illinois Democrats next year.

IL-14 is a race to follow, but it is well too early to rank it anywhere near the top-tier of 2010 races.

A Republican-turned-Democrat running in FL-05

We haven’t heard much about FL-05 over the past few cycles, and four-term Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite easily coasted to re-election. Yet, this Central Florida district is in the range of other seats picked-up by Democrats in 2006 and in 2008: Bush won by only 8% in 2000, 16% in 2004 and McCain prevailed 56% to 43% last year. The district is Republican enough that Brown-Waite will always be favored to win re-election, but not enough to justify Democrats never attempting to seriously contest the seat.

Now, a challenger has emerged: Jim Piccilo, a veteran. The catch: He is a lifelong Republican who just recently switched parties. His decision to back Obama attracted some attention last fall, and he was asked to introduce Joe Biden on the stump. He explained to CQ that the turning point came when he heard Rudy Giuliani’s speech at the RNC convention. “When you are openly mocking someone who spent part of their life helping people who were low-income, who had health problems because of asbestos and mold in their homes, that’s not something to be mocked,” he said.

In short: Piccilo is unlikely to pose much threat to Brown-Waite (though stranger things have happened) but his entry highlights the fact that there are many contestable districts that have escaped our attention over the past few years.

Mark Kirk will soon make up his mind

Chicago’s political world is waiting for Mark Kirk to decide his 2010 plans: The Republican representative, who survived tough re-election races in 2006 and 2008 in a Democratic district (Obama received 61% of the vote), is now mulling runs for Governor or for Senate. He is considered to be the GOP’s best (and arguably only) chance to win either statewide contest. Yet, for him to leave the House would be a disaster for the GOP: Democrats would be favored to pick-up an open seat.

All in all, then, a lot of people are waiting for his decision. Democratic and Republican state lawmakers want to know his plans to figure out whether they should run in IL-10; prominent GOPers who are interested in the Senate or Governor races (for instance Rep. Peter Roskam) will probably defer to Kirk. Thankfully, it looks like we will not have to wait for long: Kirk just promised an announcement by the end of the month.

Whatever he decides, Kirk should be ready to answer for recent comments in which he suggested that Governor Pat Quinn should be shot for his tax policies. “I think that the decision to raise taxes by 50 percent in Illinois is political suicide,” he said. “I htink the people of Illinois are ready to shoot anyone who is going to raise taxes by that degree.”