Campaign Diaries

Over the past few days, four new Democrats candidates jumped in second-tier House races: Joe Segall in AL-03, Cindy Trigg in NV-02, Paula Flowers in TN-03 and Francine Busby in CA-50. A quick assessment of each Democrat.

Alabama: Josh Segall seeks a rematch

In 2008, Republican Rep. Mike Rogers faced an unexpectedly competitive challenge in the hands of 29-year old Joshua Segall, a recent graduate of Brown University and of the Alabama University School of Law. The race attracted some early attention, but no one paid much attention to it until Election Night, where Rogers barely survived; he beat Segall 53% to 47%.

Now, Segall has announced that he will seek a rematch in 2010. His candidacy statement describes him as a “fiscal conservative who will work to create and attract 21st century jobs to east Alabama so that hardworking people can get ahead.” (On social issues, Segall is relatively liberal except on gay rights: He even opposes federal anti-discrimination laws, not to even mention civil unions.) While Segall is not assured of having the Democratic field to himself, his candidacy is good news for the DCCC as it immediately gets AL-03 on the 2010 radar screen: The results of the 2008 race are enough to label this a race to watch.

Yet, there is reason to think Rogers might not have as much to worry as last year: Much of his 2008 vulnerability came from the year’s pro-Democratic fundamentals, which was strongly felt in Alabama (Dems won two hard-fought open seats), and from the boost in African-American turnout, which should not be as marked in 2010. Furthermore, Democrats will not be able to count on an element of surprise: In 2008, Rogers did not feel threatened and did not defend himself as much as he should have. He now has time to see Segall coming.

California: Busby is back for the third time

One of eight California Republicans to find himself representing Obama-voting territory, Bill Bilbray is sure be targeted by Democrats next year - and he has now drawn his second challenger: Francine Busby, an educator who has already faced San Diego’s voters in two different years, announced that she would seek a rematch. (Attorney Tracy Emblem is already running for the Democratic nomination.)

In 2004, Busby lost to Rep. Cunningham by 21%. In 2005, she was Democratic nominee in the special election triggered by Cunningham’s resignation. While CA-50 is a historically Republican district, Busby looked to have a shot at winning, which would have provoked a mini-political earthquake; she ended up losing 49% to 45% in the special election and then again 53% to 43% in the regularly scheduled November election.

Since her two losses in 2004 and 2006, however, California’s landscape has changed: Historically Republican areas have swung to the Democratic column and Obama won the district by a relatively decisive margin, 51% to 47%. Worst still, Bilbray was held to 50% of the vote last fall against an under-funded challenger - a poor showing that undoubtedly suggests that he is vulnerable. Thus, conditions are more favorable to a Busby victory than they were in 2004 and in 2006.

On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine a candidate being taken seriously enough after two failed bids. And it’s not like Busby can explain his 2006 loss away: That was a high-profile race in 2006 under good circumstances - an already depressed Republican electorate, an unpopular Bush White House, and a special election. Can she convince donors and the Democratic establishment that she can win in 2010? If not, the DCCC could continue to recruit for a stronger candidate.

NV-02: Meet Cindy Trigg

Douglas County School Board President Cindy Trigg, who was first elected to her current post in 2004, announced today that she would taken on Republican Rep. Dean Heller next year. “If I run, I’m going to talk to Republicans and independents about issues their party hasn’t solved for them,” she said. (Perhaps it would also be a good idea for her to talk to Democratic voters since she would, after all, be a Democratic representative.)

Her entry in the race is worth being noted, but it is certainly not enough to make NV-02 a competitive race. For one, Trigg is not a top-tier candidate. Second, Heller is in a good position to win re-election: Despite John McCain’s collapse in the district, Heller had little trouble holding on to his district - just as he easily won the open seat in 2006. His comfortable victories in two very pro-Democratic cycles suggest that Heller is a strong and popular enough politician that he is favored to win his seat in 2010. And while there is talk that Heller might not run for re-election to jump in a statewide race instead, that could attract Democrats other than Trigg in the race.

Tennessee: Can Democrats contest Wamp’s seat?

8 House Republicans have announced that they will not seek re-election in 2010, but none of their seats are in competitive territory - Zach Wamp’s TN-03 less than others. John McCain triumphed 62% to 37% last fall (an improvement over George W. Bush’s 2000 and 2004 performances), which means that it will be very difficult for the DCCC to be competitive in this open race. They will need a a very good political environment and a strong candidate.

They might have just gotten the latter: former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flower will seek the Democratic nomination. Her past experience as a statewide official and her years as an executive could help her win over this staunchly conservative district - and her candidacy is definitely good news for the DCCC in that it guarantees that TN-03 will at the very least be on the radar map as a race to watch. Yet, there is no question that Flower will face tough odds. Her main hope is for the Republican nominee to be bruised from a contentious primary: A number of Republicans are already gearing for a run (Bradley County Sheriff Tim Gobble, state Senator Bo Watson and state Rep. Gerald McCormick) and Tennesee’s primary is scheduled for August 2010, a relatively late date that will leave little time for the nominee to turn around for the general election.