Campaign Diaries

When he left the Republican Party which had allowed him to win two terms as New York Mayor, Michael Bloomberg thought he taken a masterful decision. Barred from seeking a third term in 2009, he had no use for the GOP’s support in the city - and he was far too liberal to hope winning a Republican primary statewide or nationwide. By becoming an independent, the Mayor bolstered his post-partisan credentials (whatever that term means, it is clear that most in the media think it meaningful enough to praise politicians with that label) and dreamed ahead to the 2008 presidential election.

Yet, Barack Obama and John McCain’s primary victories left Bloomberg no boulevard to run an independent campaign in 2008, and his independent status became a big problem when the Mayor was able to convince the City Countic to allow him to run for a third term next fall: He had no party whose nomination he could seek, and that would have been a significant hurdle to winning the mayoral race.

Earlier this year, Bloomberg thus turned back to the political parties he spent so much of the past three years dissing. Unless he was willing to once again become a registered Republican, his only option to be allowed to run on the GOP line was to get the endorsement of at least 3 of the 5 borough chairmen of the Republican  Party.

Just a few months ago, these 5 chairmen all seemed adamant that they would oppose Bloomberg’s bid to run on their line; they were saying that he had done little to help them over the past few years. Yet, Bloomberg spent weeks telling Republican officials that he would listen to their concerns - and he just convinced a third borough chair to endorse him: the Bronx Chairman announced his support shortly after those of Staten Island and Brooklyn.

Bloomberg still has to go through a Republican primary, but that could be a formality. The Mayor has thus removed one of the most significant obstacles to his re-election and has also almost ensured that he will not have to face a risky 3-way campaign: If the GOP had nominated a candidate credible enough to garner double-digits, Bloomberg could have lost votes on the right and been more vulnerable to a Democrat.

In many ways, the GOP officials’ decision makes sense: New York Republicans have little hope of winning the office with another candidate this year, so why would they deny themselves the ability to claim victory and block the election of a real Democrat - even if they have to endorse a man who they do not particularly like to do so? More importantly, there are tangible benefits the GOP can gain from endorsing Bloomberg. As Elizabeth Benjamin points out, “Bloomberg has traditionally made large donations to parties that support him.” Getting the Mayor back in the GOP fold could reap financial rewards for the party.

Bloomberg has also gotten officials in the Independent Party to allow him to run on their party line, and The Daily News reports that he is now seeking the endorsement of the Working Families Party, a liberal-leaning party that is tied in to the state’s labor groups. “These guys are relentless. [Bloomberg's] got a high-caliber team. They have a lot of time on their hands, and they have ample staff resources,” said party co-chairman Bob Master in acknowledging that he had talked to Bloomberg aides.

(In New York, candidates can run on multiple party lines. The votes they received on different lines are added up.)

Of course, Bloomberg is not expected to use the word “Republican” on the campaign trail, nor will he change much to his traditional rhetoric. Last week, the Mayor released the first TV ad of his re-election campaign, a well-produced one-minute spot devoted to the economy. The ad portrays Bloomberg as a down-to-earth Mayor who understands the concerns of the city’s middle class and who is determined to fight on behalf of those who are struggling. “My plan focuses on independent leadership,” he says to the camera:

The message is an obvious one to air in the midst of an economic crisis, particularly when Bloomberg’s possible general election opponent William Thompson has already attacked the billionaire Mayor for being out-of-touch. Said a message sent by the Thompson campaign mid-March:

Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg is singing an entirely different tune. Just last week he rejected the concerns of those protesting service cuts, saying that “deep down inside, I assume, they understand we live in a different world.” Mayor Bloomberg may live in a different world - but Bill Thompson lives in our world. Bill believes that the city should be there to support all of its families - especially in times of need.”

That Bloomberg is already airing a well-produced one-minute ad defending himself (it takes a lot of money to run an ad in the New York City market) points to the fundamental problem Democrats will be facing this year. Just as he did in 2001 and 2005, the Mayor is expected to once again spend staggering amounts of his own money this year (he outspent his 2005 opponent 17:1), and his wealth will thus allow him to silence his critics. As soon as Democrats so much as broach a new theme on which to attack the Mayor, Bloomberg will be able to launch an expensive ad countering the criticism - and voters will hear the Mayor’s defense most probably without even having heard the attack.

Let’s recap: Bloomberg’s wealth might have played a factor in convincing Republican chairmen to take him back because the prospect of generous contributions; it gives him the ability to reach out to the WFP; and it enables him to air expensive early responses to Democratic lines of attack.