The situation is nowhere near as catastrophic as in New Jersey, but Democrats face the very real possibility of losing both of the governorships they have to defend in November 2009. A new Research 2000 poll confirms that Virginia’s open gubernatorial race is wide open, though Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell looks to be narrowly ahead - especially if Terry McAuliffe becomes the Democratic nominee:
- McDonnell tops all three Democrats, albeit he only leads Brian Moran 37% to 36%. (A note for hope for the Democrat: 35% of African-American respondents are undecided, far more than whites.) McDonell leads Terry McAuliffe 40% to 33%, crushing him among independents; he beats Creigh Deeds 38% to 31%.
- Most significantly, McDonnell’s favorability rating is superior to those of the three Democrats: His rating is 48-31, compared to 36-33 for Moran, 34-30 for Deeds and 35-36 for McAuliffe, whose rating is negative due to both independents and Republicans.
- The Democratic primary is wide open: Moran leads McAuliffe 24% to 19%, with 16% for Deeds. 41% of respondents are undecided - including 58% of black respondents. This could go either way, and the key to the election could very well reside in winning over African-Americans.
This is certainly not the first poll to show Moran polling better than McAuliffe in the general election - so did February’s Rasmussen survey. Here, he also bests the former DNC Chairman in the primary!
Yet, the conventional wisdom continues to hold McAuliffe favored. And the reason could not be clearer: McAuliffe, who has extensive connections to wealthy Democrats nationwide, will have millions more to spend than his opponent. This week, Moran and McAuliffe raised their fundraising numbers for the first quarter: McAuliffe raised a staggering $4.2 million while Moran received $800,000 in donations.
With 41% of respondents undecided, the race is wide open and many voters have no opinion of these candidates just yet. In such conditions, money can be even more decisive than in a typical election and McAuliffe will be able to now start swamping his rivals all the way to June’s primary - just two months away.
McDonnell has yet to release his fundraising report, but the Republican made news this week when he cheered on as Virginia’s House of Delegates rejected $125,5 million from the federal stimulus bill meant to boost Virginia’s unemployment benefits. On a party line vote, the House voted down the money on a 53-46 vote. “This one-time federal funding will run out, and taxpayers and business owners will have to cover it,” justified McDonnell. Democrats wasted no time to pound Republicans in general and McDonnell in popular.
This has the potential to matter a great deal in the general election. In NY-20’s special election, the issue of the stimulus bill hurt Jim Tedisco’s campaign. Even if Tedisco ends up victorious, there is no question that his confused rhetoric put him on the defensive for much of the campaign. Now, the issue is moving on to other races - and Virginia’s is the first on the calendar.
McDonnell is taking quite a different route than Tedisco, and is joining Republicans like Palin and Stanford who argue that stimulus funds must be rejected. (Note that Stanford himself has had to nuance his stance over the past week). Such unapologetic opposition is quite a gamble and could end up hurting McDonnell in the months ahead. If the economy has not improved in the fall of 2010, voters might be open to the GOP’s argument that the stimulus bill has failed.
In the fall of 2009, however, voters are unlikely to have concluded that Republicans were right whatever the state of the economy: They are still likely to give Obama’s policies the benefit of the doubt and keep most of the blame on his predecessor’s Administration. What many Virginians who are struggling economically are likely to remember from this week is that the Republican Party rejected federal money that could have boosted their financial condition and that could have helped the state’s fiscal situation - federal money that had already been offered! Sure, it would have been a short-term fix - but the working class is experiencing the crisis now.
Worried that the increasingly nasty Democratic primary will prevent the party from pounding on McDonnell, Democrats have created a new organization - Common Sense Virginia - to raise money that will be devoted to attack the presumptive Republican nominee. Prominent groups have already donated to Common Sense Virginia, and it will be interesting to see whether the group uses this week’s developments to mount an early attack against McConnell.
Taniel I disagree with the contention that McAulliffe should be the front runner. It makes sense for him to be ahead of Deeds, who has a pretty low profle despite narrowly losing to McDonnel for A, as well as the most conservative Democrat in a Democratic primary dominated by liberals, embolded over Obama’s victory in Virginia in 2008. Brian Moran however is a much more promiment politicion (that his brother Jerry represents a VA district in the U.S. House is only part of it). Moran will likely be the (slight) frontrunner because Virginia Democrats don’t like McAulliffe that much. He was one of Hillary Clinton’s key people in her Presidential campaign, and we all know that Obama crushed Clinton in the Virginia Dem Primary. While Obama voters have since forgiven Hillary herself, there is still some resent against some of the people on her campaign, and McAulliffe is one of the primary ones. Let’s not forget that McAulliffe praised Fox news during the primary, which angered the liberal voters who tended to support Obama. Indepedents, another part of Obama’s base, are probably lukewarm to McAulliffe for the same reason. Of course, McAullifees weak ties to Virginia is of course another harmful problem
In addition, Moran is seen as the most progressive Democrat in the primary, and he is getting alot of support from the netroots because of that. Also the electabilty issue will likely be a powerful one for VA democrats that want to keep the governorship in their hands.
McDonnell’s support for Virginia rejecting a portion of the stimulas money will almost certainly hurt him. VA statewide is less republican than NY-20, and it will be dammning if the Democrats can link him to strong conservative Governors who are trying to deny portions of stimulas money like Sanford or Jindal. He has the benefit of being unopposed in the GOP primary as well as being a (recently) former statewide offical, so of course he is likely to be ahead at this time, but I suspect that he will weaken once the Democats choose their nominee, especially if it’s Moran.
Jaxx, I did not say that McAuliffe is the front-runner, I said that he was “the conventional wisdom continues to hold McAuliffe favored” - which I believe is indisputable. I am not trying to play on words here. I do think Moran has an excellent chance to win the primary (as witnessed by the fact that he is narrowly ahead in the poll with 2 months to go), and I also couldn’t agree more with the fact that there is a lot in McAuliffe’s past that should hurt him with Democratic voters; but it is also indisputable that McAuliffe will swamp his rivals financially over the next 8 weeks - and Moran will have to find a way to deal with that.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we lose both NJ and Va this year. The incumbent party of both states will be blamed for the state economic woes that they are facing.
As far as NJ goes, I think Corzine still has time to bounce back and win the election. His numbers are currently bad, but they should bounce back some in the next 7 months. NJ in general do not like their politicians, as witnessed by the pollings for the last 2 senate elections. But the Dems seem to perform better at election time than the polls indicate.
As far as Virginia goes, I’m not particularly sold on McAuliffe or Moran. I prefer Deeds, but I don’t think he has a great shot of capturing the nomination. McAuliffe has too much baggage. Moran probably has the best chance in the general election.
I also wouldn’t be suprised if Democrats lost both the NJ and VA gubernetorial races, but it’s just as likely that the Democrats will hold at least one.
I agree with MSW that there is still some time for Corzine to bounce back, considering the recent history of Democrats doing much better on election days than the polls. But he is in a pretty deep hole, and if he wants to win reelection instead of merely losing more closely then the polls show, he will need to start to contrast his ecnomic plan’s with Christie’s and why despite the financial turmoil that NJ voters need to keep him in.
In terms of Virginia, I agree that Deeds has little chance of capturing the nomoinantion. It’s probably because of his low profile, especially in Democratic enriched Northern Virginia, and the fact that he is the most conservative Democrat in the primary. That he is making the least amount of money hurts as well. I don’t know what you think is wrong with Moran MSW. The only real weakness of Moran that I see is that he doesn’t have McAulliffe’s money (McDonnell who is the de-facto GOP nominee has already raised millions himself) but money alone doesn’t allow you to win in politics, especially in state goverment races (there are several examples of gubernetorial races in which the candidate that spent more money, sometime several times more, still loses).
I do agree that McAulliffe has alot of baggage due to his more national (as compared to Virginia) profile and his role as one of Hillary Clinton’s chief strategiests and spokesmen, but even if he does happen to win the primary he would still have a decent chance of winning, although I would probably see a a McAuliffe/McDonnell race as one leaning towards McDonnell. McDonnell’s support for the rejecion of stimulus funding is a powerful issue that even the Mack could use to bring McDonnell down.