Campaign Diaries

Sarah Palin had denied harboring any Senate plans before, but this time we have to take her seriously: The not-so-long-ago-indispensable Anchorage Daily News reports that the Alaska Governor will host a fundraiser for Senator Lisa Murkowski. “The governor has no intention of running for the senator’s seat in 2010,” added a Palin spokeswoman. “[She] thinks the senator is doing a great job and that’s why she’s looking forward to hosting a fundraiser for her.”

Alaska’s 2010 field

To those who were hoping that the 2010 cycle would bring a climactic finale to the internal feud of the Alaska Republican Party, this development is surely disappointing. After the Palin-Frank Murkowski showdown of 2006, after the Parnell-Young and Palin-GOP legislators battles of 2008 (not to mention the Stevens saga), how fun would it have been to follow Palin and Parnell’s assault on Lisa Murkowski and Don Young? Alaska would become ground zero in the battle for the soul of the Republican Party - all of it against the backdrop of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Those who are hoping for some Alaska action should not despair, as Young suggested last week that former Senator Ted Stevens should challenge Palin in the gubernatorial primary now that he has been cleared of his felony convictions. Yet, and while Stevens has shown enough political resilience to perhaps be tempted by such a move, that remains a very far-fetched scenario - and Young admitted as much.

With Palin’s threat out of the way, Lisa Murkowski now looks like one of the safest incumbents in the country: There are no other Republicans who might challenge her, and she certainly has nothing to worry about with Ted Stevens, a political ally whom she defended over the past few months, urging President Bush to grant him a pardon. (Pardon my EFCA obsession, but she is currently the only GOP Senator to have explicitly opened the door to supporting a watered-down version of the bill; might this help her get there?)

As for the general election, If former Governor Tony Knowles failed to unseat Murkowski in 2004, if Ethan Berkowitz manged to lose to Young in 2008 and if Mark Begich only beat a convicted felon by 4,000 votes, how is a Democrat supposed to beat Murkowski in 2010? For those looking to keep an eye on possible Murkowski opponents, Berkowitz and state Senator Hollis French are mentioned as possible candidates.

Palin’s plans

That Palin had to announce a fundraiser for people to take her Senate denials seriously speaks to how much all of the Governor’s moves are interpreted through the 2012 prism. Indeed, it would have made sense for Palin to run for Senate: In the primary, she would have positioned herself as a conservative crusader; she could have endeared herself more to the Republican base and used the race as a rehearsal for the presidential primaries.

Had she won, Palin would have acquired a national platform with which to talk about federal issues and from which to take a leading role in opposing Barack Obama. This is the same exact reason Charlie Crist might be interested in leaving Florida’s Governor’s Mansion to run for Senate. Yet, Crist would be the overwhelming favorite to win the open Senate seat; Palin would need to defeat an incumbent in a primary. Her camp understandably decided that the risk was too great for Palin to lose everything; had Murkowski prevailed, how would Palin have remained a credible presidential contender?

Palin’s next decision involves the gubernatorial race: Should she run for re-election, or should she retire? If she chooses the latter option, we will know for sure that she is planning a presidential run. Mitt Romney’s transparent moves in 2005-2006 helped his opponents stock up tons of oppo research in preparation for 2007-2008, but for Palin to be transparent might not make much of a difference since she is already treated her as a presidential contender.

For Palin to leave office would allow her to spend the final months of the 2010 cycle traveling around the country helping other Republican candidates (which is what Romney is expected to do); and she would then be free to travel around Iowa and New Hampshire in 2010 and 2011. If she runs for re-election, however, things might get tricky: Alaska is quite far from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, making it difficult for the state’s Governor to do quick trips to those states and to combine campaign events with official duties.

Before she even thinks of 2010 and 2012, however, Palin better get her escalating war of words with Levi Johnston. I really could not care less what went on over the past year between the Johnstons and the Palins, but the story is getting so messy that is certainly has the power to hurt the Governor’s presidential aspirations - especially in a Republican primary. Whatever the truth, it makes no sense whatsover for Palin and her entourage to keep pushing back against Levi’s statements and risk making this into a bigger story.