Campaign Diaries

Move over Chris Dodd, you have competition for the title of most unpopular Senator in the country. Quinnipiac’s recent poll showing only 33% of Connecticut voters approving of Dodd’s performance was deemed brutal, so how shall we qualify PPP’s new survey in which Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning’s approval rating sinks to 28%?

While Bunning trails all four of his potential Democratic challengers, he at least manages to stay within single-digits:

• Against Rep. Ben Chandler, Bunning trails 47% to 33%. Attorney General Jack Conway leads 42% to 33%, Auditor Crit Luallen 42% to 34% and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo 43% to 36%.

• If Bunning were to retire, Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson could do better. Grayson trails Chandler (40% to 34%) and Conway (37% to 33%). But he leads Luallen (36% to 34%) and Mongiardo (40% to 36%). Three of these four match-ups are within the margin of error of 4%.

• A third Republican candidate, state Senate President David Williams, would be crushed by all Democrats: 45% to 30% against Chandler, 43% to 29% against Conway, 41% to 31% against Luallen and 43% to 32% against Mongiardo.

• The four Democrats have a positive favorability rating: 38-28 for Chandler, 40-21 for Conway, 43-21 for Luallen and 41-34 for Mongiardo. Grayson’s favorability is stronger still, 46% to 19%. The only politician with an unfavorable rating is Williams: 41% have an unfavorable opinion and 28% have a favorable opinion.

Needless to say, the poll’s results are disastrous for Bunning. For an incumbent to trail by any margin so early in the cycle is already deemed a worrisome sign, so for him to be stuck between 33% and 37% and trailing four Democrats by wide margins will only strengthen the GOP’s desperation to see him go.

And yet, the poll could paradoxically strengthen Bunning’s hand. To get him to retire, Republicans will need to convince him that he is unelectable and present proof that other Republicans would perform substantially better than he would. This survey does suggest that Grayson would be a stronger candidate, but it will not  escape Bunning’s attention that Grayson trails 2 of the 4 Democrats and that he remains within the margin of error against the two others. Nor will Bunning fail to notice that he performs better than Dave Williams, whom voters know and dislike.

Finally, the survey could give ammunition to those who oppose Mongiardio’s nomination (the Chandler-Luallen-Conway axis). The Lieutenant Governor is the best-known of these four Democrats; yet, he has the highest unfavorability rating and he is the weakest candidate against both Grayson and Bunning. Will other polls confirm his relative weakness?

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Jon Corzine has seen worse numbers than those of the new Fairleigh Dickinson poll, but the new survey sure paints a worrisome situation for the New Jersey Governor:

• 40% of respondents approve of his performance, while 49% disapprove. Corzine’s numbers are not as catastrophic as those of other incumbents because of his party remains generally supportive: 61% of Democrats approve of his performance.

• Corzine would prevail against potential primary opponents, albeit narrowly: He leads state Senate President Richard Codey (45% to 37%) and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (48% to33%). In the Republican primary, Chris Christie is ahead of Steve Lonegan 43% to 21%.

• Corzine trails his probable Republican opponent, Chris Christie, 42% to 33%. He barely manages a lead against Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, 37% to 36%.

Remember: New Jersey’s gubernatorial election will be held in only 7 months. Corzine has very little time to change voters’ impression of his performance - and all polls show him in a deep hole. Mid-march, Quinnipiac and Rasmussen found him trailing by 9% and 15%, respectively. This new Farleigh Dickinson survey makes it 7 in a row with Corzine stuck under 40%.

Corzine is not necessarily in a worse shape than other Governors across the country, but he is one of the most endangered because he will be the only incumbent to be up for re-election in 2009. He will face voters before any potential economic rebound, before getting the chance to amend this year’s budgetary crisis by passing a less painful budget next year.