It has become so routine for David Paterson to receive disastrous poll numbers that Quinnipiac’s latest survey almost does not shock me. Yet, the Governor’s numbers have sank further than in Quinnipiac’s already catastrophic February poll:
- Only 28% of respondents approve of Paterson’s performance, which is the lowest level Quinnipiac has ever recorded for any New York Governor. (Note: The Siena poll released two weeks ago had Paterson’s approval even lower, at 19%.) Worst still, only 22% of voters say Paterson deserves another term. The reason is clear: 70% of voters disapprove of Paterson’s handling of the budget - including 63% of Democrats!
- In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo crushes Paterson 61% to 18%. In February, Cuomo “only” led 55% to 23%. Adding insult to injury, Cuomo’s approval rating is as high as ever: 70% of voters approve of his performance, 63% have a favorable opinion of him.
- Paterson’s collapse is particularly brutal in general election numbers: He trails Rudy Giuliani 53% to 32%, compared to a 43% tie in mid-February. The numbers are very different for Cuomo, who crushes Giuliani 53% to 36% - a larger margin than in February! Among Democrats, Cuomo receives 78% and Paterson 57%; among independents, 49% and 21%; among African-Americans, 82% and 69%; in New York City, 49% versus 63%.
If Paterson’s electoral fate looks sealed, voters still have to make up their mind on Kirsten Gillibrand. The Senator has improved her position since mid-February, but she remains endangered:
- 64% of respondents say they have not heard enough about Gillibrand to form an opinion, which is about the same as those of her potential rivals Carolyn McCarthy and Peter King, who are only representatives. Her favorability ratings among those who know her is positive (24% to 11%).
- In a primary match-up against Rep. McCarthy, Gillibrand trails 33% to 29%; last month, she trailed 34% to 24%. In the general election, Gillibrand tops Rep. Peter King 40% to 28%. But in a sign of her primary vulnerability, much of her party’s natural constituencies looks to be undecided: She only receives 57% among black voters, 44% in New York City - which is roughly as much as she gets upstate!
Gillibrand is not well-known enough to benefit from much incumbency advantage in head-to-head match-ups. That is a good thing, as it means that she has room to grow as voters come to know her, but it also provides an opening for her opponents to define her negatively before New Yorkers form a firm opinion of their new Senator.
It is in the context of this poll that two pieces of New York news broke, confirming that Gillibrand’s political fortunes are much better than Paterson’s.
Gubernatorial race: As Spitzer eyes comeback, Cuomo takes first step
Until now, Cuomo has provided few hints that he is considering challenging David Paterson, worrying Democrats who are starting to think of him as the only hope to retain the Governor’s Mansion next year. (Would Paterson even consider retiring if Cuomo does not enter the race? Would any other prominent Democrat take on an incumbent Governor?) But a just-published New York Post article contains a brutal quote from the Attorney General’s spokesperson, Richard Bamberger:
The attorney general believes the state must do a better job of reducing government spending and increasing efficiencies in order to avoid tax hikes… The AG also believes our government needs to be more transparent in its budget processes.
Cuomo can address his criticism to “the state” all he wants, but it is clear who is in charge of “the state” - and who is most responsible for the budget deal that passed the state legislature last week. As Politicker points out, Cuomo has no duty to comment on the state’s budgetary problems - he is the Attorney General, not the Comptroller. And that is a great position for him as he can stay in the public eye (as he did when he took a leading role against the AIG bonuses) without having to declare his intentions too early.
And then there is Eliot Spitzer. With Paterson so weak, Spitzer’s problems look minor in comparison. The former Governor is currently doing his best to rehabilitate himself, and he looks to be succeeding. Is it conceivable for Spitzer to jump in the gubernatorial race? Would he only do so if Cuomo passes on the race? Or would Spitzer try a comeback in a lower-profile race, perhaps Attorney General if Cuomo runs for Governor?
Senate race: Gillibrand brings in cash
This morning, Gillibrand’s office announced that she had raised $2.3 million in the first quarter of 2009 - an impressive sum, especially considering that Gillibrand was appointed on January 23rd. The Senator was known as a strong fundraiser, and her legal years gave her an extensive New York City network to tap into; today’s total confirms that conventional wisdom, and it a warning to Gillibrand’s rivals that she will have no trouble raising tens of millions to spend in a Democratic primary.
As I explained above, Gillibrand’s primary fate will to a large extent be decided by whether she can introduce herself to the state before her (many) critics can portray her as out-of-touch, too conservative. Money will thus be a crucial component of this primary, even more than it typically is. This could be a problem for McCarthy, who is not known as a strong fundraiser. On the other hand, Gillibrand’s fundraising haul should leave Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney undaunted: The two Democrats have deep financial networks of their own, and they both had more than $1 million of cash on hand at the end of 2008.
Paterson has been a major disappointment as governor. His badly handled vetting of a replacement for Senator Clinton left a bad taste in many people’s mouths. His handling of the budgetary process also showed a lack of deftness and political skill. He started out with great promise, but the shine is definitely gone now. He has promoted a dearth of good ideas to handle this current crisis, sided with wealthy New Yorkers when it came to raising taxes — thus leaving more of the tax burden on the working classes — and had to be pulled along kicking and screaming to get to a final budget. He has shown non leadership on dealing with important issues such as repealing Rockerfeller drug laws, or passing a gay marriage act. In short, he has been seminally unready for the duties of the office. We need someone like Cuomo who will be just the opposite of all these things. He will not be tepid, nor afraid to take on the big challenges the way Paterson has been. I’m very disappointed in Paterson but have great expectations for a Cuomo administration.