Campaign Diaries

The cycle’s first attack ad financed by a candidate has just been released- and we’re only in April 2009!

Many find it difficult to see how Arlen Specter could beat probable opponent Pat Toomey in the primary. Specter’s underdog status was confirmed by last month’s Quinnipiac poll, which showed him trailing by 15%. The Senator apparently realizes just how vulnerable he is, and he now looks determined to develop an unexpectedly aggressive approach in the hope of damaging Toomey’s candidacy from the get-go.

Specter’s campaign has just released an ad attacking Toomey’s record on financial issues. Politico reports that the spot will air in all of the state’s media markets at a cost of $100,000. That expense is too small for the ad to get decent exposure, but it is large enough for the spot to be more than just an attempt a t earning free media:

“Pat Toomey – as a Wall Street trader, he sold risky derivatives called credit default swaps. The same swaps that have now plunged us into this financial crisis,” the ad argues. “In Congress, Toomey fought for less oversight on Wall Street. He even wants to gamble our Social Security accounts in the stock market. Now Toomey wants a seat in the United States Senate. Should we let him have it?”

In normal circumstances, an incumbent would never dare air such a brutal ad so early in the cycle. It is a sign of such desperation that it can do more harm than good by attracting attention on the incumbent’s weakness. But Specter is no ordinary incumbent: Everyone already realizes how endangered he is! Thus, his position is much worse than that of a typical lawmaker: He is heading towards defeat and he has to take some drastic steps if he wants to to survive.

Sure, the ad is a testament to the precariousness of Specter’s position, but it is also a sign that the Senator will be proactive in searching for a solution. In other words, Specter has nothing to lose and it is a good move for him to unveil this attack ad so early. While Toomey has ran against Specter before, he has been out of Pennsylvania politics for nearly 5 years and voters might not be that familiar with him; this is the ideal moment for Specter to step in and seek to define Toomey before the conservative politician has a chance to do so himself.

On the other hand, I am somewhat puzzled by the ad’s message. Pennsylvania’s GOP primary is a closed contest, which means that it will only be decided by the Keystone State’s registered Republican. Of course, this is why Specter is in such a hot seat heading into 2010. But how is this ad supposed to arrange that? Conservatives tend to be in favor of privatizing Social Security; they tend to like deregulating the financial sector and putting less oversight on Wall Street.

In short: Specter is attacking Toomey for holding orthodox conservative views… as if he was running a general election ad rather than one that is aimed to convince the GOP’s base. If anything, Specter’s accusations could hurt him among conservative Republican as they could be taken as confirmation that Specter is fundamentally hostile to conservative principles.

Yet, do not take this as a sign that Specter is considering bolting from the GOP. After weeks of speculation that he might run as an independent, it now looks certain that he has decided to stick with the Republican Party and to position himself so far to the right on selected issues as to redeem himself with conservatives.

Last week, Arlen Specter announced that he would oppose EFCA, a bill whose prior version he had co-sponsored. In his speech on the Senate floor, Specter did his best to dramatize the importance of his decision. “It appears that 59 Democrats will vote to proceed with 40 Republicans in opposition. The decisive vote will be mine,” he said. Today, the first item on Specter’s very first campaign e-mail refers to his decision to oppose card-checks.

That Specter wants to draw attention to his opposition to EFCA is a clear sign that he is more preoccupied with surviving the Republican primary than he is with winning the general election.

Even more dramatically, Specter has just introduced legislation that would create a 20% flat-tax - one of the most nakedly regressive forms of taxation and a demand that has become a fixture of the conservative movement for the past few years. (The flatx-tax was one of the main components of Huckabee’s presidential campaign last year.) “My flat tax legislation would make filing a tax return a manageable chore, not a seemingly endless nightmare, for most taxpayers,” Specter explained.

Specter has long been a proponent of the flat tax. He first proposed legislation introducing a flat tax in 1995 and he continued advocating for such a taxation scheme in the years since. Yet, the timing of Specter’s legislation - a few days after he announced his opposition to EFCA and just as he unveiled a tough attack ad against Toomey - leaves little doubt that next year’s Republican primary is weighing heavily on his mind.

The longtime Senator has seemingly decided that he still has a shot at winning the Republican nomination and that he should do everything in his power to achieve victory, no matter how desperate it makes him look! To beat Toomey, Specter will need to attack him frontally and destroy his credibility; he will also need to develop more conservative voting habits. This past week suggests the Senator is capable of going down both of these roads.