Campaign Diaries

In 2006 and in 2008, a number of GOP-held Senate seats looked sure to fall in Democratic hands early on in the cycle. In 2006, Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum trailed by double-digits as soon as Bob Casey jumped in the race; two years later, Virginia and New Mexico’s Senate seats looked like safe Democratic pick-ups by the time 2008 rolled around.

Republicans can ill-afford to fall in a similar situation this year: Democrats are only one seat away from a filibuster-proof majority, and for a single GOP-held seat to become a likely Democratic pick-up would put a tremendous amount of pressure on Republicans. The two contests that are most likely to become this year’s Virginia and New Mexico are New Hampshire and Missouri’s open races - and two new surveys find Democrats with narrow leads.

New Hampshire: Hodes tops Sununu

As soon as Judd Gregg announced his retirement, it became clear that New Hampshire would be the cycle’s the most endangered Republican seat. That the GOP has no one who looks interested in a run while Democrats have coalesced around Rep. Paul Hodes only worsens the situation for the NRSC.

One of the only prominent Republicans who is said to be considering a run is former Senator John Sununu, and ARG ran a poll matching-him against Hodes. The Democrat leads Sununu 42% to 36%, thanks to a 7% edge among independents. (In December, ARG had matched-up Hodes against Gregg, finding the incumbent ahead 47% to 40%.)

Hodes’s lead is not overwhelming, but it suggests that little has changed for Sununu since his re-election defeat last fall. You might remember that nearly all polls in that race showed Jeanne Shaheen crushing Sununu, and the incumbent was unable to break out of the low 40s - even the high 30s. He is still at that level, and there is no reason to think that his numbers would improve. Sununu is a well-known politician who represented the entire state in the Senate for 6 years and whose father served in Congress before him; Hodes has represented half of the state for a little more than two years.

If Sununu passes on the race, it remains to be seen whether the GOP could even find a candidate to keep Hodes in single-digits.

Missouri: Carnahan leads two rivals

This poll was released at the end of last week, but I somehow managed to miss it. Wilson Research Strategies, a Republican polling firm, conducted a survey of the Senate race and found probable Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan ahead of her two potential rivals:

• Against Rep. Roy Blunt, Carnahan is ahead 47% to 44%.
• Against former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Carnahan leads 47% to 38%.

The only other poll of the race was released by PPP in mid-January; it found Carnahan leading Blunt and Steelman by 1% and 11%, respectively. In short, Carnahan starts with a narrow edge - but she has certainly not pulled away. Given the stature her last name gives her (not to mention her status as a statewide officer), it is a relief for the NRSC to see Carnahan and Blunt within the margin of error.

On the other hand, Missouri is Republican enough that for a Democrat to start an open seat race with the upper-hand is a testament to her political strength.

Given that the poll does not find particularly good news for Steelman, it is somewhat puzzling that she chose to release the survey. I see two explanations to this. Before she gets a chance at upsetting Blunt in the Republican nomination, she needs to undermine his efforts to present himself as the inevitable nominee - and what better way to cast doubt in the minds of the Republican establishment than by releasing a poll showing him trailing?

Second, he survey shows Carnahan at the same level - 47% - against both Republicans. Thus, even though Steelman trails by 9% compared to 3% for Blunt, she can argue that the larger deficit she faces is due to her lower name recognition rather than to the fact that she is less electable: It is not so much that independents are rushing into Carnahan’s arms when she is the Republican nominee, Steelman wants to say, but simply that GOP-leaning voters are unfamiliar with her.

Given that the next year will likely bring a multitude of general election polls finding Blunt in a stronger position, it is important for Steelman to prepare this argument as a response.