A second opponent for Dodd
Chris Dodd has drawn a second Republican opponent: state Senator Sam Caligiuri announced he would challenge the longtime Senator. He will first have to get past former Rep. Rob Simmons, who jumped in the race a few weeks ago.
A few months ago, no one would have predicted Dodd might face a competitive race; now, the embattled Chairman of the Banking Committee looks like one of the most endangered incumbents of the cycle. Can the GOP make the most of Dodd’s vulnerabilities if they nominate Caligiuri?
On the one hand, Caligiuri does not seem to have enough stature to challenge such an entrenched Senator; a recent poll showed him trailing Dodd 51% to 30% while Simmons only trailed 45% to 40%. Furthermore, he has a conservative profile, in particular on issues of crime (he has loudly championed a Connecticut version of the Three Strikes law); that would not be a good fit with Connecticut’s liberal-leaning voters and it might prevent him from capitalizing on Dodd’s fallout among independents.
On the other hand, for Caligiuri to become the Republican nominee would mean that he would have succeeded in beating Simmons - a well-known, well-liked and well-connected politician. That should be enough for him to showcase his campaign skills, confirm that he is a threat to Dodd and receive enough press coverage to boost his name recognition and improve his poll numbers.
Furthermore, Caligiuri’s age (early 30s) and outsider status would make for a better contrast to Dodd. After all, the Republicans’ campaign argument in this race will not be based on ideology and policy but on attacks on Dodd’s honesty, his coziness with bank executives, his ineffectiveness. Simmons could have more trouble making those arguments given that he has already served in Congress and that Democrats would exploit his support for George W. Bush’s agenda.
Before we even get to general election considerations, there is a potentially entertaining Republican primary to take care of - and we don’t even know whether Caligiuri will be able to mount a strong enough campaign to take on Simmons (read: whether he will be able to raise enough money). Their primary could come down to an ideological contrast between the relatively moderate Simmons and the relatively conservative Caligiuri - though is Connecticut’s Republican electorate conservative enough to find much that is objectionable in Simmons’s profile?
Cole bows out of Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race
We can strike one more name off the retirement list. After weeks of speculation, GOP Rep. Tom Cole ruled out running in Oklahoma’s open gubernatorial seat and made it clear that he would seek another term in the House. “I believe the most significant challenges facing Oklahoma, indeed the entire country, are federal in nature,” he explained, citing the economy, immigration and entitlement reform. “I believe I am in the strongest position to effectively look after Oklahoma’s interests by remaining in the House.”
Cole’s decision leaves Rep. Mary Fallin as the clear Republican front-runner. Fallin, who declared her candidacy last month, is seen as the establishment candidate; he served 12 years as Lieutenant Governor, and many feel that her time has come to give it a try. Yet, Cole had enough stature to threaten Fallin. His years as Chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party provided him a strong network within the state; his term as NRCC Chairman introduced him to conservative donors around the country; and he also has won a statewide race before (he served as Secretary of State from 1995 to 1999).
Yet, Fallin still has a long way to go: There are two other prominent Republicans who have yet to rule out bids: former Rep. J.C. Watts and Rep. Frank Lucas. And the general election will not be easy for Republicans, despite Oklahoma’s conservatism: Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are both running for the Democratic nomination.
Cole’s decision also means that OK-04 will not be an open seat - but Democrats have little to be depressed about. The district is Republican enough that a take-over would have been very unlikely. McCain crushed Obama 66% to 34%; by contrast, Obama received 41% in Mary Fallin’s OK-05.
Caligiuri’s entrance in the CT Senate GOP complictates thing a bit for Republicans, as Simmions no longer has a clear shot at the nomination. On the other hand, Simmons is clearly the choice for the Republican Senate Senatorial Committee, and he will get establishment support, while Caligiuri may have trouble raising money. I do agree with Taniel that if the election is about ethics rather than ideology or policies, then Caligiuri would have a much stronger case to make, being much younger than Dodd (Simmons is actually a little older than Dodd!) and having less political experience.
It will be interesting to see the dynamics of how the GOP primary will play out. CT is a strong Democratic state on the basis of the Democrats and independents, but I’m not sure how CT Republicans are like. Seeing as how most recent CT GOP politicans are moderate (including the popular Gov. Jodi Rell) but is it because the GOP party itself is moderate or is it merely pragmatic, knowing that a strong conservative cannot win in promiment offices in the state?
I suspect that Caligiuri will poll stronger numbers if he happens to beat Simmons, but his one weakness is that Dodd could more easily turn the race into one of ideology and policy rather than ethics because of his conservative profile, and link him to any statement that can be construed as being anti-Obama (althrough if Obama’s popularity suffers alot by late 2010 then this may change).
On the OK race, Mary Falin has dodged a bullet but she of course we don’t know if anyone else will challanger her in the GOP primary or not. One thing about OK is that while it was McCain’s best state in 2008, it actually does respectiful for Democrats at the state gov. level, and that may be because OK democrats outnumber Republicans by a respectiful margin (although the OK independents and Democrats are obiviously very conservative compared to national Democrats at large).
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