Campaign Diaries

Connecticut: Republicans find challengers left and right

The Connecticut GOP has managed to drag the Senate race into the list of competitive seats and they are favored to keep the Governor’s seat. They are now hoping that the Democrats’ weakness at the top of the ballot proves an opportunity for the GOP at over levels  - starting with House races in three Connecticut districts represented by Democrats first elected in 2006 or 2008. Over the past few days, the GOP’s recruitment efforts advanced in all three - though it remains to be seen whether Republican challengers will have at these blue-trending seats.

In CT-04, two prominent Republicans are expressing their interest in challenging Rep. Jim Himes: State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and state Senate Deputy Minority Leader Rob Kane. Either could make CT-04 a race to watch. For one, Himes is a freshman, and one’s first re-election race can be the trickiest. Second, CT-04 has a history of voting for Republicans: Himes’s 2008 victory made him the district’s first Democratic representative since 1969! Until 1987, the district was represented by Stewart McKinney, father of the John McKinney mentioned above; that could make the latter a more credible candidate in the eyes of Republicans.

On the other hand, CT-04 is heavily blue (Obama prevailed 60% to 40%, but Kerry had only won by 6%). Democrats targeted former Rep. Chris Shays for many cycles, and his 2008 loss looked to be final step of the Northeast’s realignment: Shays, who was arguably the most liberal Republican congressmen, was the last GOP representative from New England.Deprived of Shays’s entrenchment (he served for more than 21 years), how are Republicans supposed to stay competitive in such a Democratic district?

In CT-05, Justin Bernier confirmed what had already become conventional wisdom. Earlier this month, Bernier resigned from his position as director of the state’s Office of Military Affairs, a move that looked to be the prelude to a congressional run. This week, he confirmed his candidacy, and signaled that to run against Obama’s economic policies and Congress’s “reckless spending and reckless behavior.” It is somewhat puzzling that Bernier is taking such a path given that this district voted for Obama 56% to 42%. (On the other hand, John Kerry and George W. Bush tied at 49%.)

Insofar as the GOP was hoping to recruit a top-tier candidate, Bernier’s announcement is a good get for the NRCC: He has enough stature to be taken as a serious candidate and attract the attention of Republican donors. But Murphy has proved to be a formidable who scored very impressive victories over the past two cycles over then-incumbent Rep. Nancy Johnson and state Senator David Cappiello. Will he prove vulnerable at all in 2010?

Finally, in CT-02, former Hebron Board of Finance member Matthew M. Daly announced he would run against Rep. Joe Courtney. But it will take Republicans a much better recruitment coup to hope to score an upset in 2010. CT-02 is solidly Democratic (Obama won the district by 19%) and Courtney is already a sophomore lawmaker; Daly does not have enough stature to pose a serious threat to Courtney.

MI-11: While denying interest, Anderson keeps door open

Sitting in a blue-trending district that has been hit hard by the economic crisis, Rep. Thad McCotter is one of the Democrats’ top targets in 2010. Yet, after two cycles in which no prominent challenger emerged to benefit from the pro-Democratic environment, the DCCC is still having difficulty finding a credible challenger to jump in the race.

Last month, state House Speaker Andy Dillon announced that he would not run. That development prompted local Democrats to launch a movement to draft state Senator Glenn Anderson in the race. Anderson represents Livonia in the state Senate, and that could have allowed him to cut into McCotter’s base, as the representative also resides in that town.

Yet, Anderson just declared in an interview with the Livonia Observer that he would “likely campaign next year for a second four-term state Senate term in a district.” Indeed, the timing is not ideal for Anderson: Not only is he not term-limited, but he would have to give up his Senate seat since he is up for re-election this cycle. It would make sense for him to wait until the 2012 cycle to challenge McCotter.

On the other hand, Anderson did not close the door to a run. “I wouldn’t rule it out,” he said, “but I’m not encouraging [the draft movement].” most of the article is devoted to Anderson insisting that he is focused on doing his job in the state Senate. In short, Anderson answered what any politician says when trying to avoid clarifying his plans: He denied interest without ruling out anything, and subtly encouraged speculation to build while looking committed to his constituents. It is definitely worth keeping an eye on the state Senator.