Campaign Diaries

The day’s biggest political news - from an electoral and a policy perspective - is undoubtedly Arlen Specter’s speech on the Senate floor announcing he would vote against EFCA. More on that later tonight, when I will have time to sit down and parse through the latest developments; for now; let’s take care of some recruitment news.

Charlie Crist gets closer to Senate race, but can he count on a cleared primary?

Florida Governor Charlie Crist was once considered highly unlikely to jump in Florida’s Senate race, but he has been flirting with the possibility increasingly explicitly since the beginning of the year. And while he has said that he will not announce a decision until the end of Florida’s legislation session, Crist is taking subtle steps towards a Senate run. Post on Politics reports that Crist is now alluding to plans to form an exploratory committee. “I haven’t really thought much about it,” he said. “Others have suggested that might be a smart thing to do, but no decision has yet been made.”

Getting Crist to even consider the Senate race is the NRSC’s biggest success of the cycle so far. Yet, can Crist remain as formidable a contender in the months ahead? As I explained on Monday, Governors across the country are seeing their fortune decline as they have to deal with budget woes, spending cuts and painful decisions on tax hikes and fees; even popular Governors like Ted Strickland and Bill Ritter are seeing their approval ratings decline. Crist has shown little sign of weakness for now, but he is confronted with the same fiscal problems as other Governors - as Fried Gator has been documenting. (And don’t forget that Florida has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country.)

How long can Crist sustain a strong political position in the face of the economic crisis? He might look unbeatable today, but Democrats would be foolish not to field a strong enough competitor to take advantage of a potential blow black to Crist’s gubernatorial policies. In fact, it looks like some Republicans are also getting embolden enough to risk getting on Crist’s bad side! Yesterday, former House Speaker Marco Rubio recently released a video in which he takes an unmistakable dig at Crist. “Our new leaders in Washington say the only solution is to implement the single largest permanent expansion of government in American history and they pay for it with money we don’t have,” he said. “Unfortunately, even some Republicans here in Florida have embraced this idea.”

Rubio, who has already formed an exploratory committee, has said that he would run for Governor if Crist jumps in the Senate race. With that in mind, Rubio’s comments should be interpreted as an attempt to carve himself a conservative positioning rather than an indication that he would consider running against Crist in the Senate primary - the exact same situation as Pennsylvania’s Jim Gerlach. Yet, Rubio’s comments certainly suggest that there is some discontent against Crist among Republicans. The Governor is not looking at as easy a race as he might have gotten a few months ago.

Herseth Sandlin leaning towards re-election race

There is little doubt that South Dakota’s sole representative, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, will one day seek higher office. And while I initially expressed my doubts that she would leave her relatively safe House seat in 2010, press reports suggested that Herseth Sandlin was “planning” a gubernatorial run (the Governor’s race will be open in 2010). That was good news for Democrats on the gubernatorial front (it’s unlikely anyone else could pick-up the seat), but worrisome news for the DCCC, since an open seat in SD-AL would be one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities.

It now looks like the conventional wisdom is shifting again based on Herseth Slandin’s interview to The Argus Leader. While she acknowledged that she was thinking not only about the gubernatorial race but also about a challenge to Senator John Thune, Herseth Sandlin sure sounded like she is leaning towards running for re-election. Not only did she detail the long odds that would face her in a senatorial or gubernatorial run, but she also talked up her job as a House member.

“I feel strongly that South Dakota’s at-large (House) seat becomes more influential the more seniority you have on your committees, and I think that the committees on which I serve are very beneficial to my constituents,” she said. “I don’t want to disregard what the five years I have under my belt could mean for South Dakota… A lot of the issues that we’re grappling with - health care reform and energy policy - are not going to all be resolved by 2010.” These comments do not close any doors, but they are clear enough to disappoint the DGA and the DSCC and to reassure the DCCC.