Campaign Diaries

The ideological minefield of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party is proving to be one of the year’s most entertaining political stories. We have Arlen Specter’s attempts to reconcile his moderate leanings with his loyalty to the GOP and his desire to win next year’s Republican primary; we have Pat Toomey and Peg Luksik’s take-downs of the longtime Senator; and now, there are indications that the Senate race’s tensions could leak over to the gubernatorial contest.

Earlier this year, Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach formed an explanatory committee for Pennsylvania’s open gubernatorial race. Yet, he did warn that this should not be taken as a sign that he had decided to run. Now, Gerlach provided a bizarrely vague statement when asked about a rumor that he is considering challenging Arlen Specter in the Senate race:

I’ve been traveling around the state the last few weeks and it is pretty clear that some party leaders are frustrated with Senator Specter’s recent vote in favor of the trillion dollar Pelosi/Obama spending bill.  And many of these people asked me to consider running. But I told them that I am fully exploring a run for Governor which is why we’ve filed the necessary paperwork with the Department of State.

If Gerlach had wanted to quash the rumors, he would not have given this convoluted an answer. So could it be that he is actually considering a primary challenge to the longtime Senator?

Despite the fact that he represents a Democratic district, Gerlach is certainly no Lincoln Chaffee and no Chris Shays - i.e. he could be far more centrist. Yet, Gerlach has had to develop a moderate enough profile that it is hard to imagine him effectively running at Specter’s right, rallying conservatives and party activists against the Senator’s centrist ways.

While Gerlach seems to have more conservative reflexes than Specter, conservative voters would be unlikely to trust him much more than they trust the Senator. How could he be able to mount a credible Senate run, then? If Gerlach does run for Senate, he would be less likely to have a shot at winning than to siphon away the moderate votes of suburban Republicans and thus help Pat Toomey defeat the incumbent. (Even if Toomey does not run, Peg Luksik, who is already in the race, has a history of mobilizing Pennsylvania conservatives.)

So what could Gerlach be suggesting? The most likely explanation for his comments is that he is serious about a gubernatorial run but that he is worried about the GOP primary. Given the likelihood that he would have to face a more conservative Republican, Gerlach has to be concerned that he would fall victim to the same anti-centrist sentiment that is threatening Specter - particularly since GOP voters would be called to vote on the two primaries on the same day.

To avoid drawing conservative ire along with Specter, Gerlach needs to position himself as a critic of the Senator - and what better way for him to do so than to open the door to a Senate run of his own? In fact, if Gerlach does run for Governor, do not be surprised if he endorses Pat Toomey’s Senate bid, as that would be a painless way for him to protect his right flank. On the other hand, while such a move would not be surprising, it might also be ill-advised as Gerlach could then alienate his natural constituency (Specter-voting Republicans) without gaining the trust of conservatives.

Two other Republicans are preparing themselves for a gubernatorial run: former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan formed an explanatory committee last month, and Attorney General Tom Corbett did the same last week. No Democrat has yet to take an official step towards a run, though the party has a long list of potential candidates (see my recruitment page). This open seat is expected one of the most hardly fought of the current cycle; it is ranked 11th in my gubernatorial rankings.

In other news related to Pennsylvania’s Senate race, we got confirmation of two old stories:

1. On the Republican side, papers reported last month that Pat Toomey was telling his allies that he decided to challenge Arlen Specter, but Toomey’s refusal to clarify his intentions fed doubts; a new article in The Philadelphia Enquirer suggests that Toomey is still “poised to take on Specter,” however, so those eagerly waiting for that rematch should not be alarmed by Toomey’s silence.
2. Chris Matthews, who ruled out running for the Democratic nomination earlier this year, signed a 4-year contract with MSNBC that will take him through the next presidential election; this means that there is now no way for Matthews to change his mind and run for Senate after all.

In short: While plenty of Republicans are salivating at the prospect of taking on Arlen Specter, there is still a curious lack of top-tier Democrats in this race - and this despite the obvious opportunity that the nominee might get to face Toomey or Luksik in the general election.