Campaign Diaries

Steve Pougnet close to challenging Rep. Bono Mack

Over the next few months, one of the most interesting down-ballot stories to follow will be whether Democrats manage to find credible candidates in the eight GOP-held California districts Barack Obama won last fall: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-50.  These districts were drawn to be Republican bastions, but Obama improved on John Kerry’s performance by margins ranging from 15% to 21% - far superior to the 10% boost he received nationally or the 14% boost he received in California. These sudden swings mean that Democrats don’t necessarily have strong enough benches to ensure top-tier challengers, and we will closely monitor the DCCC’s recruitment efforts.

For now, the Democrats’ 2008 nominees in CA-03 and CA-44 have announced they will seek a rematch; they came within 6% and 4% of pulling off upsets, though the DCCC is said to be looking for other options). In CA-48, former Irvine Mayor Beth Krom announced she will challenge Rep. John Campbell.

Now, CA-45 has become a fourth California district with a strong Democratic challenger: Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet has just filed a candidacy statement, revealing that he is planning to challenge Rep. Mary Bono Mack. (A candidacy statement does not make Pougnet a certain or a declared candidate, but it certainly suggest that he is leaning towards a run and looking to start building a campaign infrastructure.)

While Palm Springs and its population of 42,000 is a relatively small part of the district, it is a good base from which to proceed as it is one of the district’s two cities and its mayors have gone on to hold on federal office before: former Mayor Sonny Bono was elected to the House in 1994 and served until his accidental death in 1999; his widow Mary Bono won the seat in a special election and she still holds it today.

Another interesting dynamic is that Pougnet is openly gay. While two Democrats have been elected to the House while already being out (Rep. Jared Polis and Rep. Tammy Baldwin), they both did so in heavily blue territory. Yet, all signs point to the fact that Pougnet’s sexuality would be a non-issue. For one, Linda Ketner’s near-upset victory in SC-01 demonstrated that sexual orientation does not make much of a difference even in conservative districts; second, CA-45 is a district with a significant gay population - so much so that Rep. Bono Mack has tagged to the center on the issue of gay rights. (A UCLA study finds that CA-45 has the largest LGBT population out of all districts represented by a Republican.)

In short: Pougnet would certainly make a highly credible challenger. Interestingly, CA-45 is the district Obama his biggest winning margin among these eight converted districts (52% to 47%), suggesting it is particularly ripe for a pick-up.

DCCC fails to recruit John Callahan, again

On the other hand, the DCCC’s recruiting efforts in PA-15 were denied this week when Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan announced he would not challenge Rep. Charlie Dent. Callahan would have been a strong contender as he represents a city whose population surpassed 70,000 in 2000 - giving him a strong base from which to pursue a district-wide bid.

Barack Obama triumped in PA-15 by 13%, putting Rep. Dent at the top of the DCCC’s target list. (John Kerry only prevailed by 103 votes in 2004.) Yet, despite the Democratic tsunami that submerged the country and the state in 2006 and in 2008, Dent’s opponents failed to get within single-digits. Hoping to do better in 2010, Democrats were deploying heavy artillery to convince Callahan: The Mayor recently held a Washington meeting with Rep. Allyson Schwartz, who represents a neighboring district. They will now have to pursue other options.

Note that Callahan left a tiny door open to changing his mind in the upcoming months. ”It is very flattering to be asked, but at this point in time it is just not something I’m interested in,” he told Morning Call. On the one hand, there is no reason to doubt him since he has similarly rejected the DCCC’s recruitment efforts in the past. On the other hand, there might be a good reason for him to suggest he is not looking to run now: He is up for re-election this fall, and his new term will begin in January 2010. Why would he signal that he is looking to run for another post before winning another mayoral term?