Campaign Diaries

SC-01 and SC-02: Ketner sounds reluctant, Miller remains interested

Last year, Democrat Linda Ketner invested more than $1 million from her personal wealth to defeat Rep. Henry Brown in red-leaning SC-01. She ended up losing by 4%, an impressive showing given that few people were paying much attention to the district. Heading into the 2010 cycle, many expected Ketner to give it another try  but the wealthy heiress is sounding reluctant in a recent interview with Roll Call. “The economy has hit me as well,” she said. “I put a lot of money into that last one that I won’t be able to put in another bid.” Ketner also pointed out that she would not be likely to benefit from a boost in African-American turnout like in 2008.

Ketner passing on the race would hurt Democratic chances. In a conservative district like SC-01, it takes a perfect storm for a Democrat to win: money, top recruit, environment. Not only does Ketner have the money needed to mount a competitive run, but her 2008 run allowed her to build an infrastructure and increase her name recognition. Not only does it look like that increased stature might not get used in 2010, but Ketner is warning that she would not dump as much money even if she does run. (Roll Call points to other potential Democratic candidates: former state Rep. Robert Barber and state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis.)

In neighboring SC-02, Rep. Wilson suffered from just as surprising a slump last fall, when he won 54% to 46% against Iraq War veteran Rob Miller. Miller now sounds like he is seriously considering seeking a rematch. Given that he proved himself a worthy candidate in 2008, Miller should be able to attract the DCCC’s attention (unlike what happened last year) and at least put this district on our radar screen.

Yet, can Democrats really hope to get far in these districts? SC-01 and SC-02 are excellent examples of seats in which Democrats will probably not have opportunities like last year’s for a long time. These districts have a significant African-American populations and, as Ketner herself rightly points out, 2008’s unexpectedly narrow margins were largely due to the boost in black turnout.

That boost came on top of an environment that was already extremely favorable for Democrats while Republican incumbents were being dragged down by Bush’s stunning unpopularity. The DCCC can recruit as formidable candidates as it wants, but can any challenger possibly beat GOP incumbents in such conservative districts in the midterm election of a Democratic President?

A rematch is “highly unlikely” in WI-08

In 2006, Republican John Gard, the former Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly, failed to win an open seat in red territory; two years later, he lost a rematch by 8%. Now, Gard is saying he is “highly unlikely” to seek yet another match-up against against Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen, who is expected to seek a third term in 2010.

Unlike in South Carolina, where Ketner’s reluctance to seek a rematch is bad news for her party, Gard’s decision will come as a relief to Republicans. Unlike SC-01, where it would take a perfect storm for the incumbent to be defeated, WI-08 is a swing district where any number of Republican officials can compete. Gard, however, would not have been a very credible threat: It is extremely unlikely for a candidate to come back from two consecutive defeats to score a victory. Not only is it difficult to convince voters they should keep an open mind, but it is also a challenge to persuade potential donors that you have a credible shot at winning.

With Gard all but out of the picture, the NRCC can concentrate on finding a fresh challenger to Kagen. One Republican is already in the race: Mark Savard, a member of the Door County Board of Supervisors and former Chairman of the county’s Republican Party. Savard could mount a competitive race, though the GOP might want to look a bit harder. WI-08 has colored itself blue enough that it will take a top-tier Republican to threaten Steve Kagen.