Campaign Diaries

Earlier this year, a PPP survey found Ohio Governor Ted Strickland in a vulnerable position, leading potential Republican challenger John Kasich by only 6%. Since then, two Quinnipiac surveys have given Democrats some comfort. The first was released in February, and the second has been published today:

• Strickland leads Kasich 56% to 31%; against former Senator Mike DeWine, Strickland is ahead 54% to 32%. (The Governor had wider leads in February: He was ahead 56% to 26% and 54% to 32%, respectively.)

• Strickland’s approval rating remains strong: 56% approve of his performance, while 30% disapprove. Yet, that is lower than Strickland’s February approval rating. The reason is clear: respondents disapprove of Strickland’s handling of the economy, 46% to 43%.

That last number is undoubtedly the most intriguing: Like other executives across the country, the economic crisis puts Strickland in a vulnerable position. We have already been witnessing the collapsing fortunes of Governors David Paterson, Jon Corzine and Arnold Schwarzenegger as their state face budgetary woes. And while Ohio voters still retain a favorable assessment of their Governor, he is clearly starting to feel the heat of the financial crisis since more voters now disapprove of his economic performance.

How long can Strickland (and other Governors in a similar position) sustain high overall approval ratings in the face of declining confidence in their economic leadership and in the face of worsening economic conditions?

Note that neither Kasich nor DeWine have committed to the race. While many expect Kasish to jump in the race, DeWine is also considering the open Senate race and the contest for Attorney General; he is said to be leaning towards the latter. If both were to challenge Strickland, the GOP would undoubtedly find itself in an unpredictable primary. Quinnipiac tested the Republican primary, finding DeWine narrowly ahead of Kasish, 32% to 27%.

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Meanwhile, a University of Texas survey tested Texas’s potential Republican primary between Senator Kay Baily Hutchison and Governor Rick Perry. A poll released last month found the Senator leading 56% to 31%, but this new survey finds a closer race: Hutchison is ahead 37% to 29% 36% to 30%. (As a commenter points out, most sources point to the margin being 36-30 rather than 37-29, though the Statesman provides the latter margin. The overall point remains the same.)

That suggests that there is a larger number of undecided than we would expect given that this would be a blockbuster battle between the state’s two top GOP politicians. Yet, it might not be that surprising: While Hutchison and Perry have different profiles, there are both popular, and the state’s Republican voters have been accustomed to voting for them over the past decade or two. How are they supposed to suddenly arbitrate a showdown between them?

Interestingly, new reports suggest that Hutchison is in the process of changing her plans. The Senator was widely expected to resign from her Senate seat in the upcoming months to fully devote herself to the gubernatorial race. Texas has no procedure for a permanent gubernatorial appointment, so a Hutchison resignation would trigger a special election - and Democrats were obviously looking forward to getting a shot at picking-up the seat.

Roll Call is now reporting that, while Hutchison is still as likely to run for Governor, she is now leaning against resigning before she wins the Governor’s mansion. That would mean no special eletion before the spring of 2011. The story adds that Hutchison might still end up stepping down, but even then she will do so later than what was rumored -  probably not before the end of this year. That would mean that we should not expect a special election before May 2010. (Interestingly, Democrats already have two candidates who have committed themselves to the Senate run should Hutchison step down: Houston Mayor Bill White and former Controller John Sharp. That’s more than in many Senate races that are actually sure to take place in 2010.)