Campaign Diaries

In what was an eagerly awaited decision, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter announced today that she would not run for Senate in New Hampshire. “I thank the many people in New Hampshire and Washington, D.C. who have asked me to run, but I have decided that I do not want to run for the U.S. Senate,” she said. “I love the House of Representatives and the work I am involved in there to help the people of New Hampshire.”

Shea-Porter started signaling her interest in a statewide run months before Senator Judd Gregg announced that he would not seek re-election in 2010. But Rep. Paul Hodes announced his candidacy first, forcing Shea-Porter to consider whether she wants to give up her House seat without being guaranteed that she would even make it to the general election.

Her decision not to run means that Paul Hodes is now the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. The only potential contender left is former State Supreme Court Justice Joseph Nadeau, who has said he will make up his mind by next fall. In a one-on-one race against Hodes, it is hard to see how Nadeau could find an opening to endanger the representative’s hold on the nomination. Republicans, meanwhile, have no candidate and a thin bench. The NRSC is hoping to recruit John Sununu, but will voters be open to rehiring him just two years after they kicked him out of the Senate?

With no obvious Democratic or Republican opponent lining up to oppose Paul Hodes, it is very much possible that Shea-Porter would have been the toughest obstacle on his road to the U.S. Senate.

(Many say that Hodes would have been the overwhelming favorite in such a race, but I have repeatedly warned against underestimating Shea-Porter. In 2006, she beat an establishment-backed candidate in the primary. That caused the DCCC to stop paying attention to her district, but Shea-Porter came out of nowhere to defeat Republican Rep.Jeb Bradley in what was the biggest surprise in the cycle. In 2008, many thought that Shea-Porter would lose in a rematch against Bradley; instead, she triumphed by a relatively comfortable 6%. In short: Shea-Porter has a strong grassroots base that would have made her a formidable force in the primaries.)

Shea-Porter’s announcement also has obvious consequences at the House level: NH-01 is a competitive district won by George W. Bush in 2004 (Obama prevailed by 6%). An open seat would have been hotly contested, so the DCCC has to be happy for Shea-Porter’s decision.

The DCCC was undoubtedly all the more worried by a potential Shea-Porter candidacy by the eerie parallel to last cycle’s New Mexico bloodbath: The state’s both Republican representatives (Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce) left their House seats to run for Senate. Democrats picked-up that Senate seat and both of their House seats, sending Wilson and Pearce into retirement and taking control of the state’s entire congressional delegation. For Hodes and Shea-Porter to both run for Senate would certainly have given the GOP a golden opening to regain its footing in a state in which it has completely collapsed over the past few years.

That is not to say that Shea-Porter will not face yet another contested election, however. As I reported yesterday, at least three candidates are mulling a run, starting with Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta and former HHS Commissioner John Stephen. Will Shea-Porter’s decision affect theirs?