Campaign Diaries

In an extraordinary statement, 10 New York Democratic congressmen sent a letter to the Chairwoman of the state’s Democratic Party, June O’Neill, asking her not to devote any of the party’s resources to helping Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s Democratic primary. The group was reportedly motivated by the state party sending e-mails highlighting stories that featured Gillibrand.

Politics on the Hudson obtained a copy of the letter (emphasis mine):

Some of the cosigners of this letter may support Senator Gillibrand. Some are considering running for the seat. Others remain undecided. However, each of us wants a Democrat to win in a process that is fair, open and inclusive… The members of the Democratic State Committee deserve to make a [Senate] choice without being impaired or prejudiced in any way.

Among the letters’ signers are Reps. Steve Israel, Carolyn McCarthy, Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, all of which are mentioned as possible candidates against Gillibrand. (Nadler’s name was rarely mentioned among potential contenders, but his office did not deny that he was interested when questioned by The New York Times.)

Other signers are Reps. Tom Bishop, Yvette Clark, Nydia Velázquez, Jose Serrano, Maurice Hinchey, and Erica Massa, who was just elected in the fall of 2008. (Are any of them considering a Senate run?) If nothing else, this letter confirms what was already common knowledge: Gillibrand is strikingly unpopular among her House colleagues.

Of course, it is not uncommon - nor it is controversial - for a state party to support an incumbent Senator, quite the contrary. The chairman of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party attracted a lot of heat recently for suggesting that the party apparatus might back a conservative challenge to Arlen Specter. Yet, state parties and national committees generally remain neutral in open race primaries - and this is what Gillibrand’s rivals want this contest to be treated as since Gillibrand has yet to face voters statewide.

They are suggesting that the state’s other ambitious Democrats - those who stepped aside for Hillary Clinton in 2000, those who have been waiting for the past decade for a seat to open up - deserve at least one “unimpaired” shot at winning the Democratic nomination, as they would have had if Clinton had been replaced via a special election rather than via Paterson’s appointment.

Their argument certainly makes sense, and it could resonate in the current context of widespread criticism of the gubernatorial appointment process. Yet, it is very interesting that these Democrats took the trouble to write this letter so early. The state party was showing little sign of investing many resources in helping Gillibrand, and it is doubtful how much of a boost their help could possibly be. So what is the letter’s true motivation?

The simplest explanation is that they want to ensure that Gillibrand is not treated as a safe incumbent; we often hear people predict that a primary challenge will not materialize. Not so, the letter’s signers are saying, we are very serious about challenging the Senator.

Furthermore, Israel, McCarthy, Nadler and Mahoney might be trying to show that they are talking to each other and that they might co-ordinate their effort to some degree. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine Gillibrand losing if too many people challenge her, especially since her rivals would be sharing the same downstate geographical base.

More Senate speculation: Ben Chandler, Josh Shapiro

North Carolina’s Attorney General Roy Cooper is warning that he will not make up his mind about whether to challenge Senator Richard Burr for a few more months, but other Democratic officials are also sparking speculation.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Josh Shapiro, a 35-year old lawmaker, recently traveled to Washington to meet with DSCC officials about the possibility of running for Senate. For now, the only Democrat running is Joe Torsella, whose primary strength I have argued should not be underestimated. Shapiro would undoubtedly be dwarfed if still more Democrats were to jump in the race, so why is he jumping in so early? Shapiro’s district falls in that of Rep. Allyson Schwarz, another potential Senate contender; that gives us a hint of why Shapiro might be agitating for the Senate race. If Schwarz decides to run for Senate, Shapiro could run for her open seat. Having already attracted statewide buzz would only bolster his standing in the House race.

Kentucky: Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler surprised many when he acknowledged thinking about the Senate race. Though Chandler is on everyone’s list of potential Senate contenders, few expect him to leave his district for a statewide run. But given that Bunning is looking increasingly vulnerable, how would Chandler not take a serious look at challenging him? He would have to face a competitive primary, as Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo is already running and other Democrats could still jump in the race. Conventional wisdom holds that Chandler would be the strongest Democratic nominee, but the only recent survey shows all four potential candidates polling at the same level.