Campaign Diaries

[Updated with second poll] In the first weeks of NY-20’s special election campaign, Democrats were defeatist and the DCCC would not even commit to helping its nominee. The mood has changed over the past few weeks: The race became more competitive, the candidates began exchanging harsher attacks, and the special election has increasingly looked winnable for Democratic candidate Scott Murphy.

Two new polls confirm that Democrats should feel more optimistic, as they show that Murphy has cut in Tedisco’s once-overwhelming lead:

• Yesterday, the DCCC released an internal poll that was conducted on February 24th-25th, so it is already a bit dated: it shows Tedisco at 44%, Murphy at 37% and 4% for Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall.
• This morning, Siena released a survey conducted on March 9th and 10th finding Tedisco leading 45% to 41%. In another Siena poll released in mid-February, Tedisco led 46% to 34%.

Siena’s trendline suggests undecideds are breaking heavily in the Democrat’s direction. Tedisco might still be in the lead, but momentum is undoubtedly on Murphy’s side - and Democrats have two more weeks to complete this turn-around.

Explaining Murphy’s rise

Natural tightening is the simplest explanation for Murphy’s progress: As the election approaches, more voters are introduced to the largely unknown Murphy while Tedisco enjoys better name recognition, meaning that he has less room to grow. Obama won NY-20 last fall, which means that voters are open to voting for a Democrat - and that means Murphy could score an upset once he introduces himself to voters. (The poll was taken three weeks ago, at about the time the ad wars started to ehat up.)

Murphy’s improved numbers are also due to the fact that the campaign is treating him well. I stand by my analysis that the Democrats’ message could be better suited to the political environment and that the DCCC would be better served to embrace more partisan rhetoric (especially in the context of a special election), but there is no question that the mere fact that the DCCC is getting involved is a huge relief for Murphy.

Furthermore,, Tedisco’s refusal to take a stand on the stimulus bill provided his opponent with an opportunity a campaign can only dream of. Not only do the ads write themselves, but his non-stance has put him on the defensive and he has been hammered by editorial boards. Now, Murphy is going further in his attacks against Tedisco with the most personal ad yet to air. After blasting Tedisco’s “refusal to support President Obama’s economic recovery package that will save or create 76,000 jobs in Upstate New York,” the ad accuses the Republican of having “rewarded one of his biggest campaign contributors with a $100,000 government job just for him at taxpayer expense:”

Furthermore, Murphy is getting some important outside help. The Independence Party’s decision to endorse him could provide him a winning margin if the vote is close, and so could Eric Sundwall’s candidacy. Sundwall is the Chairman of the state’s Libertarian Party and he could draw conservative votes away from Tedisco. Sundwall still has to make it on the ballot, and the GOP is expected to challenge his petition.

A note of caution

Democrats had great success in special elections last year because of the Democratic base’s motivation and enthusiasm. In low turnout contests like those in IL-14, MS-01 and LA-06, that was enough to carry a Democrat to victory. Ever since Obama’s victory on November 4th, special elections have shown a drop in Democratic enthusiasm and a more motivated Republican base. Georgia’s Senate runoff, LA-02 and LA-04 are the three obvious examples, but we just got a new one yesterday.

I usually do not cover down-ballot races to the extent of discussing county-level elections, but the contest for Fairfax County Commissioner is nevertheless instructive. Fairfax is the Northern Virginia County that became dramatically more blue by the year over the past decade, leading up to Obama’s decisive victory in the Old Dominion. But over the past month, three special elections in the county have stopped the Demcorats’ progress and have boosted the GOP’s broken spirits: Democrats won the first two races respectively by 16 votes and less than 1% when they were expected to prevail by more; and yesterday, a Republican prevailed against a better-funded Democrat who was believed to have the upper-hand.

In short: Democratic voters are voting at lesser rates than last year, and Republican voters are staying voters. The NY-20 campaign might be favoring Murphy, but it looks like the low turnout factor could help Tedisco.