However difficult it might be to conceive of a Republican winning a statewide race in New Jersey, it might be time to move the Garden State’s gubernatorial race to the lean take-over column. Governor Jon Corzine has fallen in a deep hole. The past four polls have shown him trailing Republican challenger Chris Christie. Worst still, Corzine is stuck under 40% in all four surveys - as clear a sign of incumbent vulnerability as any.
Today, two new polls only worsened the situation by finding Corzine trailing against yet another Republican opponent:
- Quinnipiac finds Christie ahead 46% to 37%; in a poll released in early February, Christie led 44% to 38%. When matched-up with Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Corzine stays ahead 41% to 37%.
- Unsurprisingly, Corzine’s approval rating is negative: 50% disapprove of his performance, while 40% approve. The numbers are worse among independents.
- Rasmussen’s numbers are even worse: Corzine trails by a shocking 49% to 34% against Christie - and he has even fallen behind Lonegan, 43% to 35%.
- Few people know Christie and Lonegan, but Corzine’s approval rating is overwhelmingly negative (33-66).
For Corzine to now be trailing against low-profile Lonegan suggests that he has sank quite low indeed. His numbers are so dismal that it seems unnecessary for me to point out that few incumbents recover after registering 34% or 37% support in a poll - let alone when five polls in a row find them stuck at that level.
With only nine months to go before Election Day, Corzine has little time left to improve his numbers. Quite the contrary: The financial crisis will only aggrevate New Jersey’s fiscal and economic situation, and that could force Corzine to take unpopular measures. While incumbents who face re-election in November 2010 can hope that the economic situation will have improved by the midterms, Corzine will have to face voters at a time few analysts expect the situation to have much improved.
The only good news for the incumbent is that voters seem to be voting based on an anti-Corzine impulse rather than because of their attracting to Christie or Lonegan. This suggests that the Governor has a shot at improving his numbers by putting the spotlight on his opponents and playing on voters’ partisan allegiances. On the other hand, both surveys show that voters like Christie and that they are attracted to his background as a U.S. Attorney. As I have said before, the time has come to stop acting like Corzine’s situation will improve just because this is New Jersey: His numbers are far more catastrophic than those other state Democrats faced over the past few cycle.
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In California, last week’s Field Poll found Senator Barbara Boxer handily defeating potential challengers Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and businesswoman Carly Fiorina. A new survey, released by Rasmussen, confirms the Field poll’s findings:
- Boxer crushes Schwarzenegger by a startling 50% to 34%; she leads by a narrower margin against Fiorina, 47% to 38%.
- Like other Governors across the country, Schwarzenegger seems to be dragged down by the state’s fiscal crisis: Not only is his approval rating negative, but only 22% of voters approve of last month’s high-profile budget deal.
Boxer’s numbers are not particularly worrisome, but she also does not look strong enough to be allow to grow complacent. She only leads by single-digits and under the vulnerability threshold of 50% against a Republican who has never held public office. (Note that she led by a massive 30% against Fiorina in the Field Poll; the two survey’s Schwarzenegger numbers are more similar to each other.)
Just like last with the Field Poll, this survey is more interesting in what it tells us about Schwarzenegger than about Boxer. The Governor might have had senatorial ambitions after his comfortable re-election victory in 2006, but he has grown too unpopular in recent years to look like a formidable candidate. The state’s conservative voters have also turned against him, which would make his life difficult in both the primary and the general election.
Gov. Corzine’s poor performance in so many successive polls probably warrents changing the ranking of the race, but in my view it would only move to a toss-up, not a lean GOP takeover. As Taniel has said, Corzine’s poor numbers are almost entirely due to strong anti-Corzine sentiment over the poor ecnomny and necessary yet still unpopular budget decisions that he has had to made, not strong reverence for Christie or any other Republican who happens to run again. There have been too many instances of Republicans polling strongly early in election year only to eventually fall in the end to assume that Christie will easily dispatch of Corzine. One thing to remember is that the election race seems to be mostly low key for now. Christie hasn’t started airing ads explaining why he would be a superior choice than Corzine, and Corzine seems to be more focused on governing at the moment and not looking into the race yet. I suspect that active politicing won’t start until near the end of spring.
I do think that once Corzine starts to actively campaign, he will move hard to show that his actions on the budget were necessary and try his best to define Christie as unacceptable before he can respond back. And remember that Corzine is likely to massively outspend Cristie thanks to Corzine’s personal fortune. While it is true that peeople may like the fact that Christie is a former U.S. Attorney, it isn’t really a strong enough on it own to carry Christie to victory. In my opinion, opinion polls in late summer, to early fall, when the campaign will certainly be underway, will be the real test in whether Christie really will be able to go the distance. If Christie is still beating Corzine by double digits in polls conducted during September, then Corinze indeed will probably be finished. I do think that is more likely that the race will tighten as Corzine and Christie start to actively campaign against each other.
In Calfifornia, Schwarzeneggar has the same problem. It is really unfortantenate that the Calfornia public disapproves of his state budget. While higher taxes and some cuts in spending may be bad, a total government shutdown would be infintely worse in terms of the quality of life for Calfornians. Dissapointed to see such an underappreciation by the average citizen of the hard decisions that politicans do have to make keep the quality of life of thier constituents as high as possible.
Nontheless, Arnold is in a tougher position than Corzine because he is a Republican in a strongly Democratic state, in the position he may run for he is NOT the incumbent, and the base of his party at the moment despises him, which isn’t the case with Corzine (Corzine’s problem is with more moderate democrats and with indepedents). While Rasmussen showing Fiorina being behind Boxer by only 9 points and keep Boxer under 50% is rather suprising, Fiorina is not likely to run because of her reported Breast Cancer, and even if she did, 9 points is a strong head start in a Democratic and exepnsive state.
Fiorina would be rightly lambasted for her inept running of HP and expensive tastes whilst firing thousnads of workers - not the best image or news in this economic climiate. She is a puff ball as shown by her “abilities” in the 2008 Presidental campaign “advising” John McCain.