The Republican field for Florida’s open Senate race has been frozen ever since Governor Charlie Crist’s name surfaced as a potential contender. Crist would be such a formidable candidate that few Republicans will be foolish enough to challenge him in their party’s primaries - and that means that politicians like Rep. Connie Mack or Rep. Vern Buchanan have to wait. Even if Mack and Buchanan start planning a Senate run now, donors and establishment figures will not be ready to commit to them until Crist clarifies his intentions.
But one Republican has found a way around the problem. This week, state representative and former state Speaker Marco Rubio formed an explanatory committee for the Senate race, the first step towards a full candidacy; but he also said that he would run for Governor if Crist decides to switch jobs. In short: Rubio will run for statewide office no matter what.
This dual annoucment allows Rubio to start building a campaign infrastructure, hiring staffers and raising funds because he will be able to assure potential donors and supporters that they would not be wasting their time and money on him. Sure, Rubio will say, I might not end up running for the office for which I am asking you to contribute, but I will run for a prestigious office no matter what. This maneuver could allow Rubio to gain an edge on Republicans who might not be willing to run for either office and thus really have to wait for Crist.
Rubio’s move is also a reminder that Florida is sure to host one highly competitive open race no matter what happens. If Crist stays out of the Senate race, neither party will have a towering candidate who would be able to clear the field; both primaries and the general election would be wholly unpredictable; on the other hand, Crist would be unlikely to face much competition to win re-election as Governor. If Crist does jump in the Senate race, he would be the overwhelming favorite to replace Mel Martinez; but the Governor’s seat would open up for a fierce battle.
The problem for the state’s ambitious Democrats is that they cannot imitate Rubio, announce a Senate run while making plans to switch for the Governor’s race if Crist jumps in. Indeed, state CFO Alex Sink complicates matters on the Democratic side.
Sink has transparent gubernatorial ambitions, and she passed on this year’s open Senate seat to keep herself available for the 2014 Governor’s race (Crist will be term-limited out of office). If Crist were to vacate the position this year, Sink would likely jump in the gubernatorial race and be favored to win the nomination. In this scenario, Democrats who are now running for Senate would suddenly find themself caught beween a rock and a hard place: either face Crist in the Senate race or challenge Sink in the gubernatorial contest.
All this confusion might explain why some Democrats are hedging their bets: Rep. Ron Klein, who is said to be mulling a race, hinted this week that he is making no plans to run. “We’re still keeping the options open. Nothing’s changed. Just looking at it,” he said. “But I’m running for House. And we’ll see. If there’s a change, I’m not closing the door.” (Klein’s statement will reassure the DCCC: FL-22 is a swing district, and an open seat would be sure to be hotly disputed.)
With Klein’s statement, Rep. Kendrick Meek’s prospects are looking stronger than ever. Last month, I pointed out that Meek has artfully maneuvered to position himself as his party’s front-runner. Within a few days of declaring his candidacy, Meek hired Steve Hildebrand, one of Obama’s top campaigned strategists who had supervised his boss’s efforts in the Sunshine State; by the end of January, Meek held a fundraiser headlined by Bill Clinton; and in mid-February, he secured the surprisingly early nod of the state SEIU.
As if all of this was not enough, Meek is noz organizing a second fundraiser with Clinton. The St. Petersburg Times points out this is only the third congressional primary in which Bill Clinton has gotten involved since he left the White House! That should allow Meek to build up his campaign coffers: He raised $300,000 in his first fundraiser headlined by the former President. Klein and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio might be waiting to learn more about Crist’s plans, but they should be careful not to let Meek gain too much of an edge.
Is it name dropping or is it how much coroprate cash you raise thats gets you elected in 2010? and Which candidates are actually veterans in 2010?
Klein is smart not to run. He knows that he would be an underdog in the primary and general elections and a loss would probably shatter his career.
Hmm. Does this remind anyone of the early Democratic presidential primary? Meek comes on strong, running a top-down campaign, gathering endorsements and support from heavyweights like Bill Clinton while Dan Gelber quietly builds a vast grassroots network, compiled partially of Obama supporters who were disgruntled with Meek’s snub of Obama back in our primary in 07. Florida has a huge network of Obama supporters who are just chomping at the bit to get back in the game, and they see Dan Gelber as the loyal superdelegate who came out to support Barack Obama in the closing weeks of Florida’s primary just when it mattered the most. They won’t be quick to forget that, and I predict they will line up behind Gelber. So much for the “inevitable” Meek nomination.