Campaign Diaries

Ever since his name surfaced in the D.C. Madam scandal, there has been no doubt that Louisiana Senator David Vitter would be vulnerable in the 2010 midterms. And a new poll released by Research 2000 (the first of the cycle) confirms that the freshman Senator is endangered:

• In a Republican primary, Vitter leads Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, who is said to be considering a run, 43% to 32%. Porn star Stormy Daniels receives 1%!

• In general election match-ups, Vitter is also under 50% and his lead is within single-digits: He beats Rep. Charlie Melancon 48% to 41% and former Rep. Don Cazayoux 48% to 39%.

An incumbent who is stuck under 50% in both the primary and the general election is obviously beatable. Yet, Vitter is far from being one of Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents for a very simple reason: He has yet to draw a challenger. This week alone, he dodged two bullets (Cooksey and Melancon, see below for more). In fact, two factors have solidified Vitter’s re-election prospects.

First, the scandal occurred in the middle of Vitter’s term, allowing him to use the remainder of his time to protect himself from a primary challenge from the right. Not that Vitter was ever a moderate, but he has transformed himself into one of the leaders of the Senate’s most right-wing faction. He is willing to mount solitary crusades to display his conservative credentials. For instance, Vitter was the only Senator among the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s 17 members to vote against Hillary Clinton’s appointment to the State Department.

It is naturally on social issues that Vitter has been the most zealous, since a primary challenger will attack him first and foremost on his involvement with a prostitution network. This week, Vitter has championed the cause of the so-called family values in the omnibus bill, for instance proposing to forbid the distribution of money to Planned Parenthood.

As a result, Vitter has been able to hold off potential primary opponents for now. A few Republicans are still considering a race, but one of potential GOPer announced this week that he would not challenge Vitter. As I wrote last week, an effort was emerging to draft former Rep. John Cooksey into the Republican primary. Cooksey was reportedly considering dumping $200,000 of his own money. But it did not take long for Cooksey to squash all speculation: he said yesterday that he would not attempt a political comeback.

Yet, Cooksey stopped short of endorsing Vitter’s primary run. “If David Vitter emerges as the Republican nominee in the 2010 Senate race in Louisiana, I will vote for him,” he said, clearly suggesting that he would not mind another Republican’s emerging as the GOP nominee.

The second factor that is helping Vitter is the collapse of Louisiana’s Democratic Party. Whether Democrats will be in any position to take advantage of Vitter’s weakness and of the intra-GOP squabbling remains unclear.

This week, the strongest potential Democratic candidate  - Rep. Charlie Melancon - hinted that he will not run. “Never say never, but I’m not contemplating a run at this time,” he said. Melancon’s statement will frustrate the DSCC but it will also delight the DCCC; for him to run for Senate would create a very difficult open seat for Democrats to defend, as LA-03 leans Republican.

Cazayoux might have been polled by Research 2000, but he has shown no sign that he is considering a statewide run. Other Democrats who might jump in the race are former Rep. Chris John (who was crushed in the 2004 Senate campaign) and a wealthy businessman, Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard.